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Canada


Richmond Centre (federal)


MP: Wilson Miao (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC likely gain
Richmond Centre 47% ± 8% 33% ± 7% 14% ± 5% 5% ± 4% LPC 2021 39.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Richmond Centre 99% 1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 41.4% 28.5% 39.34% 33% ± 7% CPC 44.2% 49.0% 37.08% 47% ± 8% NDP 11.5% 14.5% 18.14% 14% ± 5% GPC 2.9% 6.1% 3.25% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.4% 2.19% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0% ± 0%