logo
Canada

Surrey Newton


MP elect: Sukh Dhaliwal (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Surrey Newton


Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal*
Conservative Harjit Singh Gill
NDP Raj Singh Toor
Communist Salman Zafar

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Surrey Newton 49% ± 0%▼ LPC 44% ± 0%▲ CPC 6% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 49.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Newton 85%▼ LPC 15%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Newton

LPC 49% ± 0% CPC 44% ± 0% NDP 6% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Newton 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 55% CPC 23% NDP 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 54% CPC 26% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 26% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 66% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 66% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Surrey Newton

LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Surrey Newton



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 0% 45.4% 54.4% 49.4% CPC 44% ± 0% 20.4% 15.2% 44.1% NDP 6% ± 0% 29.5% 26.1% 6.0% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.5% 2.6% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.