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Canada


Vancouver Centre (federal)


MP: Hedy Fry (LPC)


Latest projection: March 24, 2024

Toss up LPC/CPC
Vancouver Centre 34% ± 7% 31% ± 6% 27% ± 6% 6% ± 3% LPC 2021 40.14% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Vancouver Centre 70% 27% 3% Odds of winning | March 24, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Centre

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 31% ± 6% NDP 27% ± 6% GPC 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Vancouver Centre

LPC 70% CPC 27% NDP 3% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 56.1% 42.2% 40.14% 34% ± 7% NDP 20.0% 23.7% 30.53% 27% ± 6% CPC 16.9% 19.3% 22.02% 31% ± 6% GPC 5.8% 12.5% 3.99% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 3.33% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%