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Surrey Newton



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Surrey Newton 38% ± 8%▼ LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 7%▲ NDP LPC 2021 54.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Newton 91%▼ LPC 7%▲ CPC 2%▲ NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Newton

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Newton 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 23% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 29% NDP 24% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 24% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 24% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 45% CPC 27% NDP 24% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 44% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 42% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% CPC 27% NDP 26% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 25% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 27% NDP 23% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 22% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 47% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 23% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 25% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 41% CPC 29% NDP 25% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 42% CPC 28% NDP 25% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% CPC 28% NDP 25% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% CPC 28% NDP 25% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% CPC 29% NDP 24% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 24% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% CPC 30% NDP 26% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 27% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Surrey Newton

LPC 91% CPC 7% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 100% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 91% CPC 7% NDP 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Surrey Newton



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.4% 54.4% 38% ± 8% NDP 29.5% 26.1% 27% ± 7% CPC 20.4% 15.2% 30% ± 7% PPC 1.5% 2.6% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.2% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.