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Ponoka—Didsbury



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Ponoka—Didsbury


Conservative Blaine Calkins*
NDP Logan Hooley
PPC Larry Gratton
United Grant Abraham
No Affiliation Zarnab Zafar

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ponoka—Didsbury 82% ± 8% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 6% PPC CPC 2021 67.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ponoka—Didsbury >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% PPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ponoka—Didsbury

CPC 82% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% PPC 8% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Ponoka—Didsbury 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins CPC NDP PPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 72% NDP 11% PPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 70% NDP 10% PPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 71% NDP 7% PPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 71% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 71% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 71% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 72% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 73% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 73% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 73% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 74% NDP 5% PPC 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 77% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 77% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 78% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 81% PPC 8% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 81% PPC 8% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 81% PPC 8% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 81% PPC 8% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 82% PPC 8% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 82% PPC 8% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 82% PPC 8% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 82% NDP 8% PPC 8% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ponoka—Didsbury

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ponoka—Didsbury



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 84.4% 67.9% 82% ± 8% NDP 5.6% 11.0% 8% ± 4% PPC 3.9% 13.4% 8% ± 6% LPC 3.9% 4.7% 0% ± 0% GPC 2.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.