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Canada


Sturgeon River–Parkland (federal)


MP: Dane Lloyd (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC safe hold
Sturgeon River–Parkland 67% ± 7%▲ 19% ± 5% 7% ± 3% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 61.35% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Sturgeon River–Parkland >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sturgeon River–Parkland

LPC 7% ± 3% CPC 67% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sturgeon River–Parkland 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Sturgeon River–Parkland

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Sturgeon River–Parkland



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 70.2% 77.5% 61.35% 67% ± 7% NDP 10.0% 10.1% 19.13% 19% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.4% 10.02% 4% ± 4% LPC 15.6% 6.8% 6.87% 7% ± 3% GPC 3.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% MAV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%