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Canada

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MP elect: Michael Guglielmin (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Vaughan—Woodbridge


Liberal Francesco Sorbara*
Conservative Michael Guglielmin
NDP Ali Bahman
PPC Roman Yesveyev

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Vaughan—Woodbridge 60% ± 0%▲ CPC 38% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 59.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

LPC 38% ± 0% CPC 60% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 60% ± 0% 36.6% 40.3% 59.9% LPC 38% ± 0% 51.2% 46.1% 38.1% NDP 1% ± 0% 7.7% 6.9% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.6% 5.4% 0.7% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.