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Canada

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MP: Michael Guglielmin (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 60% ± 8% 36.6% 40.3% 60.0% LPC 38% ± 8% 51.2% 46.1% 38.0% NDP 1% ± 1% 7.7% 6.9% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.6% 5.4% 0.6% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Vaughan—Woodbridge 60% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% LPC CPC 2025 60.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 60% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 55% LPC 30% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 51% LPC 35% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 60% LPC 38% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader