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Canada

Les Pays-d’en-Haut



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/BQ

Candidates | Les Pays-d’en-Haut


Liberal Timothy Watchorn
Conservative Vincent Leroux
NDP Eric-Abel Baland
Green Karine Steinberger
Bloc Quebecois Ariane Charbonneau
PPC George Mogiljansky

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Les Pays-d’en-Haut 39% ± 8%▲ LPC 37% ± 7% BQ 15% ± 5% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 4% PPC BQ 2021 47.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Les Pays-d’en-Haut 62%▲ LPC 38%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 37% ± 7% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Les Pays-d’en-Haut 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ PPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 16% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 16% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 62% NDP <1% BQ 38% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Les Pays-d’en-Haut



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 28.7% 25.9% 39% ± 8% BQ 48.7% 47.5% 37% ± 7% CPC 8.8% 11.7% 15% ± 5% NDP 6.3% 6.9% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 4.3% 4% ± 4% GPC 6.0% 1.5% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.