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Canada

Les Pays-d’en-Haut


MP: Timothy Watchorn (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Les Pays-d’en-Haut


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 44% ± 7% 28.7% 25.9% 41.0% BQ 34% ± 7% 48.7% 47.5% 36.1% CPC 16% ± 5% 8.8% 11.7% 18.0% NDP 3% ± 2% 6.3% 6.9% 2.3% GPC 2% ± 2% 6.0% 1.5% 1.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 4.3% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Les Pays-d’en-Haut


Les Pays-d’en-Haut 44% ± 7%▲ LPC 34% ± 7%▼ BQ 16% ± 5%▼ CPC 3% ± 2%▲ NDP LPC 2025 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Les Pays-d’en-Haut 97%▲ LPC 3%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% BQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Les Pays-d’en-Haut 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 51% LPC 17% CPC 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 50% LPC 17% CPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 50% LPC 18% CPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 50% LPC 18% CPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 47% LPC 21% CPC 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 46% LPC 23% CPC 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 38% BQ 38% CPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 38% LPC 38% CPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 38% LPC 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 38% LPC 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 41% BQ 37% CPC 17% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 17% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 43% BQ 35% CPC 17% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 44% BQ 34% CPC 16% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader