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Recent electoral history | Les Pays-d’en-Haut


2019 2021 2025 Projection BQ 40% ± 7% 48.7% 47.5% 36.2% LPC 35% ± 6% 28.7% 25.9% 41.0% CPC 15% ± 4% 8.8% 11.7% 18.0% NDP 4% ± 3% 6.3% 6.9% 2.3% GPC 3% ± 3% 6.0% 1.5% 1.6% PPC 1% ± 2% 0.9% 4.3% 1.0%

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338Canada Les Pays-d’en-Haut projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Les Pays-d’en-Haut 34% 47% 40% ± 7% BQ 28% 41% 35% ± 6% LPC 11% 20% 15% ± 4% CPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP 1% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Les Pays-d’en-Haut 85%▲ BQ 15%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 35% ± 6% CPC 15% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 40% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Les Pays-d’en-Haut 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 39% LPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 39% LPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 41% BQ 37% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 43% BQ 35% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 44% BQ 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 45% BQ 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 45% BQ 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 45% BQ 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 45% BQ 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 44% BQ 35% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 43% BQ 36% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 42% BQ 36% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 42% BQ 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 41% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 41% BQ 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 41% BQ 36% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 40% BQ 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 40% BQ 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 39% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 39% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 39% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 39% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 39% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 38% BQ 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 38% LPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 38% LPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 40% LPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 40% LPC 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 41% LPC 36% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 40% LPC 36% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 40% LPC 36% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 40% LPC 36% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 40% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 40% LPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 85% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 56% BQ 44% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25


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Demographic data | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 92.7% French 6.5% English 0.2% Spanish 0.1% Russian 0.1% Romanian 0.0% Polish 0.0% ArabicLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.9% No diploma 19.4% High school 23.3% Trade 20.0% College / Cégep 4.6% Some university 14.4% Bachelor's 6.5% PostgraduateLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 98.1% Not visible minority 1.9% Visible minority 0.5% Black 0.5% Latin American 0.3% Arab 0.2% Chinese 0.2% Southeast Asian 0.1% FilipinoLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 58.1% Catholic 34.3% No Religion 3.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.9% Other Christian 0.6% Anglican 0.5% Orthodox 0.4% Jehovah's Witness 0.4% JewishLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 80.9% Owner 19.1% RenterLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 56.1% Employed 39.2% Not in labour force 4.7% UnemployedLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.3% Non-Indigenous 1.7% Indigenous identity 0.9% First Nations 0.6% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% Inuk 0.1% MultipleLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 95.1% Car / truck / van 2.1% Walking 1.7% Other 0.9% Public transit 0.2% BicycleLes Pays-d’en-HautSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.