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Canada


Laurier–Sainte-Marie (federal)


MP: Steven Guilbeault (LPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

LPC leaning hold
Laurier–Sainte-Marie 36% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 7%▼ 22% ± 6% 6% ± 4% 4% ± 2% LPC 2021 37.91% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Laurier–Sainte-Marie 79%▲ 21%▼ <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laurier–Sainte-Marie

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 4% ± 2% NDP 32% ± 7% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Laurier–Sainte-Marie 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Laurier–Sainte-Marie

LPC 79% CPC <1% NDP 21% GPC <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Laurier–Sainte-Marie



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 23.7% 41.8% 37.91% 36% ± 7% NDP 38.3% 25.2% 32.89% 32% ± 7% BQ 28.7% 22.8% 20.42% 22% ± 6% CPC 4.1% 2.8% 3.32% 4% ± 2% GPC 3.5% 6.0% 2.25% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.1% 0.17% 0% ± 0%