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Canada

Les Pays-d’en-Haut


MP elect: Timothy Watchorn (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Les Pays-d’en-Haut


Liberal Timothy Watchorn
Conservative Vincent Leroux
NDP Eric-Abel Baland
Green Karine Steinberger
Bloc Quebecois Ariane Charbonneau
PPC George Mogiljansky

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Les Pays-d’en-Haut 41% ± 6% LPC 36% ± 6% BQ 18% ± 4% CPC LPC 2025 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Les Pays-d’en-Haut 86%▼ LPC 14%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 41% ± 6% CPC 18% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Les Pays-d’en-Haut 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 51% LPC 17% CPC 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 50% LPC 17% CPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 50% LPC 18% CPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 50% LPC 18% CPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 47% LPC 21% CPC 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 46% LPC 23% CPC 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 39% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 38% BQ 38% CPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 38% LPC 38% CPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 38% LPC 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 38% LPC 37% CPC 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 39% LPC 36% CPC 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 16% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 18% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Les Pays-d’en-Haut

LPC 86% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 14% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Les Pays-d’en-Haut



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 41% ± 6% 28.7% 25.9% 41.0% BQ 36% ± 6% 48.7% 47.5% 36.1% CPC 18% ± 4% 8.8% 11.7% 18.0% NDP 2% ± 2% 6.3% 6.9% 2.3% GPC 2% ± 1% 6.0% 1.5% 1.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 4.3% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.