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Canada


Hull–Aylmer (federal)


MP: Greg Fergus (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

LPC safe hold
Hull–Aylmer 45% ± 7%▼ 17% ± 5% 16% ± 5%▲ 14% ± 4% 6% ± 4% LPC 2021 52.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hull–Aylmer >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hull–Aylmer

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 4% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hull–Aylmer 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Hull–Aylmer

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Hull–Aylmer



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.4% 54.1% 52.49% 45% ± 7% BQ 6.5% 14.6% 16.12% 17% ± 5% NDP 31.5% 13.6% 12.66% 16% ± 5% CPC 7.7% 9.1% 10.76% 14% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 3.66% 2% ± 2% GPC 1.9% 7.0% 2.85% 6% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.28% 0% ± 0%