338Canada | Hull–Aylmer (Québec federal district)




24030 - Hull–Aylmer

Province: Québec
Population (2016): 105,420 residents
Population density: 1697 pop./km² (rank: 100 of 338)
Median household income: $62 668 (rank: 228 of 338)
Member of Parliament: Greg Fergus (LPC)



Latest projection (August 1, 2021)

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Federal vote projection | Hull–Aylmer

Last update: August 1, 2021








Odds of winning | Hull–Aylmer

Last update: August 1, 2021







Electoral history of Hull–Aylmer



(If you cannot see the graph above, turn your phone by 90°.)
(Results of 2011 election have been transposed on the new electoral map. Thanks to Kyle Hutton for his precious help.)




Map of Hull–Aylmer




(Credits: Elections Canada)




Projections vs results: How did the projections do in 2019? | Hull–Aylmer



On the graph above, colored bar represent the final 338Canada projections for the 2019 federal election. The triangle markers indicates the results in this electoral districts. Only parties that won at least 8% of the vote (or were projected above 8%) are listed.


Hull–Aylmer


Final 2019 Projection 2019 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.5% ± 8.5% 54.1% Outside confidence interval
16.9% ± 5.6% 14.6% Within confidence interval
18.6% ± 6.2% 13.6% Within confidence interval
11.3% ± 4.2% 9.1% Within confidence interval


*Only parties that won at least 8% of the popular vote in this electoral district (or were projected above 8%) are indicated.









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