logo
logo
Canada

Jonquière



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Jonquière 48% ± 8%▲ BQ 29% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% LPC 7% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 43.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jonquière >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Jonquière

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 29% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 48% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Jonquière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 44% CPC 34% LPC 13% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 46% CPC 33% LPC 12% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 46% CPC 32% LPC 13% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 43% CPC 34% LPC 13% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 42% CPC 35% LPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 41% CPC 36% LPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 43% CPC 35% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 44% CPC 34% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 44% CPC 33% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 43% CPC 33% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 43% CPC 33% LPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 42% CPC 33% LPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 43% CPC 32% LPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 44% CPC 32% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 44% CPC 32% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 44% CPC 32% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 44% CPC 32% LPC 12% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 44% CPC 31% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 45% CPC 31% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 45% CPC 30% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 46% CPC 30% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 46% CPC 31% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 47% CPC 29% LPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 47% CPC 30% LPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 46% CPC 30% LPC 12% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 47% CPC 29% LPC 12% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 48% CPC 29% LPC 12% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Jonquière

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Jonquière



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 36.8% 43.1% 48% ± 8% CPC 21.1% 28.3% 29% ± 7% LPC 16.8% 20.8% 12% ± 4% NDP 22.5% 5.4% 7% ± 3% GPC 2.0% 1.7% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.