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Latest projection: December 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional
polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls.
The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data.
Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada
Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%),
leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
Popular vote projection | Jonquière
Odds of winning | Jonquière
Recent electoral history | Jonquière
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.