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Canada

Humber River—Black Creek


MP elect: Judy Sgro (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Humber River—Black Creek


Liberal Judy Sgro*
Conservative Bijay Paudel
NDP Matias de Dovitiis
PPC Marek Jasinski
Communist Jeanne McGuire

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Humber River—Black Creek 56% ± 7%▲ LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 55.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC 56% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Humber River—Black Creek 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 42% CPC 29% NDP 22% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 47% CPC 26% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 50% CPC 25% NDP 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 57% CPC 23% NDP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 58% CPC 22% NDP 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 60% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 63% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 63% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 65% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 65% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 66% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 66% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 66% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 68% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 69% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 69% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 69% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 68% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 68% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 68% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 70% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 69% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 69% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 69% CPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 68% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 68% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 68% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 7% 61.1% 60.7% 55.6% CPC 36% ± 7% 16.2% 17.4% 35.8% NDP 6% ± 3% 19.0% 16.4% 6.4% PPC 2% ± 2% 1.1% 3.9% 1.6% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.