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Canada

Humber River—Black Creek


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC safe
Humber River—Black Creek 48% ± 9% LPC 27% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 60.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC 48% ± 9% CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Humber River—Black Creek 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 49% CPC 25% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 49% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 49% CPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 49% CPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 48% CPC 24% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.1% 60.7% 48% ± 9% CPC 16.2% 17.4% 27% ± 7% NDP 19.0% 16.4% 17% ± 6% PPC 1.1% 3.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 2.1% 1.2% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.