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Canada

Humber River—Black Creek



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Humber River—Black Creek 44% ± 8% LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 60.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Humber River—Black Creek 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 49% CPC 25% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 49% CPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 49% CPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 49% CPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 48% CPC 24% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 47% CPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 47% CPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 48% CPC 26% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 50% CPC 26% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 47% CPC 29% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 47% CPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 48% CPC 26% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.1% 60.7% 44% ± 8% CPC 16.2% 17.4% 28% ± 7% NDP 19.0% 16.4% 21% ± 6% PPC 1.1% 3.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 2.1% 1.2% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.