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Canada

Kitchener—Conestoga



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Kitchener—Conestoga


Liberal Tim Louis*
Conservative Doug Treleaven
NDP Maya Bozorgzad
PPC Kevin Dupuis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kitchener—Conestoga 53% ± 9%▲ LPC 40% ± 8%▲ CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 38.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga 96%▲ LPC 4%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 53% ± 9% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener—Conestoga 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kitchener—Conestoga



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.8% 38.3% 53% ± 9% CPC 38.4% 37.6% 40% ± 8% NDP 10.1% 11.9% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 7.2% 2% ± 3% GPC 10.2% 4.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.