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Canada

Kitchener—Conestoga


MP elect: Tim Louis (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Kitchener—Conestoga


Liberal Tim Louis*
Conservative Doug Treleaven
NDP Maya Bozorgzad
PPC Kevin Dupuis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kitchener—Conestoga 48% ± 6% LPC 47% ± 6%▼ CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga 57%▲ LPC 43%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 48% ± 6% CPC 47% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener—Conestoga 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 51% LPC 23% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 50% LPC 25% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 50% LPC 25% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 47% LPC 28% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 31% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 34% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 43% LPC 36% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 42% LPC 38% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 37% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 39% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 41% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 40% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 42% CPC 40% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 42% CPC 40% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 40% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 40% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 39% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 40% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 47% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kitchener—Conestoga



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 48% ± 6% 39.8% 38.3% 48.3% CPC 47% ± 6% 38.4% 37.6% 47.5% NDP 3% ± 2% 10.1% 11.9% 2.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.5% 7.2% 1.3% GPC 0% ± 0% 10.2% 4.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.