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Canada


Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
NDP leaning
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 40% ± 8%▲ NDP 36% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 5% LPC 6% ± 7% PPC NDP 2021 35.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 73%▲ NDP 27%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 36% ± 8% NDP 40% ± 8% PPC 6% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC <1% CPC 27% NDP 73% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 39.7% 35.8% 40% ± 8% LPC 28.7% 26.2% 17% ± 5% CPC 24.8% 25.2% 36% ± 8% PPC 3.1% 12.3% 6% ± 7% GPC 3.5% 0.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.