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Canada


Kingston and the Islands (federal)


MP: Mark Gerretsen (LPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

LPC leaning hold
Kingston and the Islands 34% ± 6% 30% ± 6%▲ 28% ± 6%▼ 6% ± 3% LPC 2021 41.28% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kingston and the Islands 71%▼ 20%▲ 9%▼ Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kingston and the Islands

LPC 34% ± 6% CPC 30% ± 6% NDP 28% ± 6% GPC 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kingston and the Islands 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Kingston and the Islands

LPC 71% CPC 20% NDP 9% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Kingston and the Islands



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.4% 45.8% 41.28% 34% ± 6% NDP 17.0% 23.3% 29.31% 28% ± 6% CPC 22.7% 19.5% 23.5% 30% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 2.6% 3.44% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.5% 8.9% 2.46% 6% ± 3%