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Recent electoral history | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 43% ± 8% 24.8% 25.2% 48.9% LPC 38% ± 7% 28.7% 26.2% 39.0% NDP 16% ± 6% 39.7% 35.8% 10.4% PPC 2% ± 2% 3.1% 12.3% 1.7%

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338Canada Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 36% 51% 43% ± 8% CPC 30% 45% 38% ± 7% LPC 10% 21% 16% ± 6% NDP CPC 2025 48.9% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 83%▼ CPC 17%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 35% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 31% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 44% LPC 36% NDP 18% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 1% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 17% CPC 83% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 77% NDP 16% CPC 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 68% NDP 22% CPC 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% NDP 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 72.9% English 24.4% French 1.0% Algonquian 1.0% Cree 0.4% Punjabi 0.1% Gujarati 0.1% GermanKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 15.8% No diploma 28.8% High school 8.4% Trade 32.1% College / Cégep 1.3% Some university 10.0% Bachelor's 3.7% PostgraduateKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.7% Not visible minority 3.3% Visible minority 1.2% South Asian 0.6% Black 0.5% Filipino 0.4% Chinese 0.1% Southeast Asian 0.1% ArabKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 51.6% Catholic 29.6% No Religion 4.5% Anglican 3.7% Christian (n.o.s.) 2.6% United Church 1.4% Other Christian 1.4% Pentecostal 0.9% BaptistKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 67.9% Owner 29.6% Renter 2.5% Community housingKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 52.5% Employed 42.1% Not in labour force 5.4% UnemployedKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 80.2% Non-Indigenous 19.8% Indigenous identity 12.7% First Nations 6.5% Metis 0.3% Multiple 0.2% Others 0.1% InukKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 85.7% Car / truck / van 8.4% Walking 2.9% Public transit 2.5% Other 0.5% BicycleKapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.