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Canada

Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


MP: Gaetan Malette (CPC)

Latest projection: December 28, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 43% ± 8% 24.8% 25.2% 48.9% LPC 34% ± 7% 28.7% 26.2% 39.0% NDP 20% ± 6% 39.7% 35.8% 10.4% PPC 2% ± 2% 3.1% 12.3% 1.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 35% 51% 43% ± 8% CPC 26% 41% 34% ± 7% LPC 14% 26% 20% ± 6% NDP CPC 2025 48.9% 338Canada vote projection | December 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 95%▲ CPC 5%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 28, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 39% CPC 39% LPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 38% NDP 38% LPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 38% NDP 38% LPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 36% NDP 36% LPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 35% NDP 34% LPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 32% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 34% NDP 30% CPC 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 30% GPC 1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 35% CPC 31% NDP 28% GPC 1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 28% GPC 1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 0% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 0% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 30% GPC 0% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 35% NDP 31% CPC 30% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 31% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 44% LPC 36% NDP 18% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 5% CPC 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 28, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 52% CPC 48% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 53% NDP 47% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 52% NDP 48% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 53% NDP 47% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 59% NDP 41% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 80% NDP 18% LPC 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 82% NDP 10% LPC 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 44% NDP 38% LPC 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 49% NDP 38% LPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% NDP 30% CPC 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 52% NDP 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% NDP 29% CPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% NDP 28% CPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 69% CPC 16% NDP 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 73% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 76% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 77% CPC 15% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 74% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 77% CPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 80% CPC 12% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 81% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 77% NDP 15% CPC 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 80% NDP 13% CPC 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 78% NDP 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 77% NDP 13% CPC 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 80% NDP 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 79% NDP 16% CPC 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 75% NDP 19% CPC 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 79% NDP 16% CPC 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 83% NDP 12% CPC 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 75% NDP 19% CPC 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 76% NDP 19% CPC 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 75% NDP 20% CPC 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 73% NDP 20% CPC 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 71% NDP 19% CPC 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 73% NDP 18% CPC 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 75% NDP 15% CPC 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 77% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 84% NDP 11% CPC 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 85% NDP 9% CPC 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 81% NDP 12% CPC 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 79% NDP 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 77% NDP 16% CPC 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 68% NDP 22% CPC 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% NDP 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader