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Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 37% ± 8% NDP 36% ± 8%▼ CPC 17% ± 5% LPC 7% ± 6% PPC NDP 2021 35.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 54%▲ NDP 46%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 36% ± 8% NDP 37% ± 8% PPC 7% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 40% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 39% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 18% PPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 18% PPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 18% PPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 18% PPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 41% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 39% CPC 35% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 38% CPC 34% LPC 18% PPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 37% CPC 36% LPC 18% PPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 37% CPC 36% LPC 18% PPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 37% NDP 36% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 38% NDP 35% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 38% NDP 36% LPC 17% PPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 39% NDP 36% LPC 16% PPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 38% NDP 36% LPC 16% PPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 37% NDP 37% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 37% NDP 37% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 37% CPC 37% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 37% NDP 37% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 37% CPC 36% LPC 17% PPC 7% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC <1% CPC 46% NDP 54% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 73% CPC 27% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 72% CPC 28% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 71% CPC 29% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 77% CPC 23% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 81% CPC 19% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 83% CPC 17% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 69% CPC 31% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 69% CPC 31% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 66% CPC 34% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 78% CPC 22% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 58% CPC 42% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 58% CPC 42% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 61% NDP 39% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 66% NDP 34% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 54% NDP 46% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 51% NDP 49% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 53% CPC 47% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 53% NDP 47% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 54% CPC 46% LPC <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 39.7% 35.8% 37% ± 8% LPC 28.7% 26.2% 17% ± 5% CPC 24.8% 25.2% 36% ± 8% PPC 3.1% 12.3% 7% ± 6% GPC 3.5% 0.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.