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Canada

Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


MP elect: Gaetan Malette (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk


Liberal Steve Black
Conservative Gaetan Malette
NDP Nicole Fortier-Levesque
PPC Serge Lefebvre

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 49% ± 0%▲ CPC 39% ± 0%▲ LPC 10% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 49.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 99%▲ CPC 1%▼ LPC <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 39% ± 0% CPC 49% ± 0% NDP 10% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 32% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 34% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 35% CPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 35% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 49% NDP 38% LPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% NDP 30% CPC 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 52% NDP 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% NDP 29% CPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% NDP 28% CPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 69% CPC 16% NDP 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 73% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 76% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 77% CPC 15% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 74% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 77% CPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 80% CPC 12% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 81% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 77% NDP 15% CPC 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 80% NDP 13% CPC 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 78% NDP 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 77% NDP 13% CPC 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 80% NDP 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 79% NDP 16% CPC 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 75% NDP 19% CPC 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 79% NDP 16% CPC 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 83% NDP 12% CPC 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 75% NDP 19% CPC 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 76% NDP 19% CPC 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 75% NDP 20% CPC 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 73% NDP 20% CPC 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 71% NDP 19% CPC 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 73% NDP 18% CPC 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 75% NDP 15% CPC 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 77% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 84% NDP 11% CPC 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 85% NDP 9% CPC 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 81% NDP 12% CPC 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 79% NDP 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 77% NDP 16% CPC 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 68% NDP 22% CPC 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% NDP 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 0% 24.8% 25.2% 49.1% LPC 39% ± 0% 28.7% 26.2% 38.8% NDP 10% ± 0% 39.7% 35.8% 10.3% PPC 2% ± 0% 3.1% 12.3% 1.8% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.