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Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Karim Bardeesy
Ontario
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 42% ± 7% 47.6% 42.8% 55.8% NDP 37% ± 8% 31.2% 38.4% 23.0% CPC 16% ± 5% 13.3% 13.3% 19.4% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.1% 3.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park


Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 35% 50% 42% ± 7% LPC 30% 45% 37% ± 8% NDP 11% 21% 16% ± 5% CPC 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 55.8% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 77%▼ LPC 23%▲ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park

LPC 42% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 37% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 52% NDP 26% CPC 18% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% NDP 26% CPC 19% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% NDP 24% CPC 19% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 56% NDP 24% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 56% NDP 24% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 55% NDP 25% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 54% NDP 26% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 54% NDP 26% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 54% NDP 26% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 54% NDP 27% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 53% NDP 28% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 53% NDP 28% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 53% NDP 29% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 52% NDP 29% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 51% NDP 29% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 50% NDP 30% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 50% NDP 31% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 49% NDP 31% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 48% NDP 32% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 48% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 47% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 47% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 47% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% NDP 33% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 47% NDP 34% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 46% NDP 35% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 43% NDP 37% CPC 16% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 43% NDP 37% CPC 16% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 42% NDP 37% CPC 16% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park

LPC 77% CPC <1% NDP 23% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 82% NDP 18% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 81% NDP 19% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC <1% 2026-01-11