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Canada


Thunder Bay–Rainy River (federal)


MP: Marcus Powlowski (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC leaning gain
Thunder Bay–Rainy River 35% ± 7% 29% ± 7%▲ 28% ± 7% 4% ± 4% 4% ± 3% LPC 2021 34.24% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Thunder Bay–Rainy River 81%▼ 11%▲ 8% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay–Rainy River

LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 28% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay–Rainy River 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay–Rainy River

LPC 11% CPC 81% NDP 8% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay–Rainy River



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.0% 35.3% 34.24% 29% ± 7% CPC 21.1% 29.3% 29.26% 35% ± 7% NDP 29.7% 29.1% 28.46% 28% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 6.61% 4% ± 4% GPC 5.2% 4.5% 1.43% 4% ± 3%