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Canada

Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
NDP likely
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 40% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 42.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 96%▲ NDP 4%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 40% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 41% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 41% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 40% LPC 34% CPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 41% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 41% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 41% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 42% LPC 33% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 36% LPC 36% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 36% LPC 36% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 36% NDP 36% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 36% LPC 36% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 37% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 37% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 36% LPC 36% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% NDP 34% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 24% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 23% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 37% LPC 33% CPC 23% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 37% LPC 34% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 37% LPC 34% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 38% LPC 34% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 38% LPC 34% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 37% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 37% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 38% LPC 34% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 38% LPC 33% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 40% LPC 31% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 40% LPC 31% CPC 22% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park

LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP 96% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 86% LPC 14% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 90% LPC 10% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 87% LPC 13% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 88% LPC 12% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 50% NDP 50% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 67% LPC 33% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 64% LPC 36% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 54% LPC 46% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 58% NDP 42% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 73% NDP 27% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 66% NDP 34% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 72% NDP 28% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 73% NDP 27% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 75% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 68% LPC 32% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 66% LPC 34% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 79% LPC 21% CPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.6% 42.8% 31% ± 7% NDP 31.2% 38.4% 40% ± 7% CPC 13.3% 13.3% 22% ± 6% PPC 1.1% 3.2% 2% ± 2% GPC 6.4% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.