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Elmwood—Transcona



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
Toss up CPC/NDP

Candidates | Elmwood—Transcona


Liberal Ian MacIntyre
Conservative Colin Reynolds
NDP Leila Dance*
Green Nicolas Geddert
PPC Collin Watson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Elmwood—Transcona 41% ± 9% NDP 38% ± 8%▼ CPC 19% ± 6% LPC NDP 2021 49.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Elmwood—Transcona 65%▲ NDP 35%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Elmwood—Transcona

LPC 19% ± 6% CPC 38% ± 8% NDP 41% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Elmwood—Transcona 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 44% CPC 42% LPC 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 45% CPC 39% LPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 41% NDP 40% LPC 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 41% CPC 40% LPC 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 42% CPC 39% LPC 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 19% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% NDP 38% LPC 19% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% NDP 37% LPC 19% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 41% NDP 38% LPC 19% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 40% NDP 39% LPC 18% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 40% CPC 39% LPC 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 40% CPC 39% LPC 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 41% CPC 38% LPC 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 44% CPC 37% LPC 17% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 43% CPC 39% LPC 17% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 43% CPC 38% LPC 17% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 43% CPC 38% LPC 17% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 43% CPC 38% LPC 17% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 42% CPC 38% LPC 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 41% CPC 38% LPC 19% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 41% CPC 38% LPC 19% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 41% CPC 38% LPC 19% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 42% CPC 37% LPC 19% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 42% CPC 37% LPC 19% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 40% CPC 39% LPC 19% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 40% CPC 39% LPC 19% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 40% NDP 39% LPC 19% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 40% NDP 39% LPC 19% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 41% CPC 39% LPC 19% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 41% CPC 38% LPC 19% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Elmwood—Transcona

LPC <1% CPC 35% NDP 65% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 61% CPC 39% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 80% CPC 20% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 52% NDP 48% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 59% CPC 41% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 61% NDP 39% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 66% NDP 34% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 55% NDP 45% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 51% CPC 49% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 58% CPC 42% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 83% CPC 17% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 72% CPC 28% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 77% CPC 23% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 72% CPC 28% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 68% CPC 32% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 74% CPC 26% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 55% CPC 45% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 51% CPC 49% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% NDP 49% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% NDP 47% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 61% CPC 39% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Elmwood—Transcona



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 45.0% 49.1% 41% ± 9% CPC 38.0% 28.5% 38% ± 8% LPC 12.3% 14.9% 19% ± 6% PPC 1.2% 6.0% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.5% 1.6% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.