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Canada

Elmwood—Transcona


Latest projection: September 15, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Elmwood—Transcona 43% ± 8%▼ NDP 39% ± 8%▲ CPC 10% ± 5% LPC 3% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 3% GPC NDP 2021 49.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Elmwood—Transcona 68%▼ NDP 32%▲ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | September 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Elmwood—Transcona

LPC 10% ± 5% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 43% ± 8% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Elmwood—Transcona 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 48% CPC 32% LPC 14% PPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 47% CPC 32% LPC 14% PPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 15% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 46% CPC 33% LPC 15% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 45% CPC 33% LPC 16% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 16% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 46% CPC 32% LPC 16% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 15% PPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 16% PPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 16% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 43% CPC 33% LPC 16% PPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 43% CPC 33% LPC 16% PPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 43% CPC 34% LPC 15% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 44% CPC 34% LPC 15% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 43% CPC 35% LPC 14% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 44% CPC 34% LPC 14% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 44% CPC 33% LPC 15% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 44% CPC 38% LPC 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 43% CPC 39% LPC 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-15

Odds of winning | Elmwood—Transcona

LPC <1% CPC 32% NDP 68% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 83% CPC 17% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 68% CPC 32% LPC <1% 2024-09-15

Recent electoral history | Elmwood—Transcona



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 45.0% 49.1% 43% ± 8% CPC 38.0% 28.5% 39% ± 8% LPC 12.3% 14.9% 10% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 6.0% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.5% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.