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Canada

Brampton North—Caledon


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton North—Caledon 42% ± 8% CPC 40% ± 8% LPC 15% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton North—Caledon 64%▲ CPC 36%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 42% ± 8% NDP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Brampton North—Caledon 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 36% CPC 64% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Brampton North—Caledon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.2% 51.4% 40% ± 8% CPC 29.2% 33.2% 42% ± 8% NDP 17.6% 14.0% 15% ± 5% PPC 0.9% 1.0% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.0% 0.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.