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Canada

Brampton North—Caledon


MP: Ruby Sahota (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Brampton North—Caledon


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 9% 49.2% 51.4% 49.0% CPC 46% ± 9% 29.2% 33.2% 47.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 17.6% 14.0% 2.2% PPC 1% ± 2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Brampton-Nord—Caledon


Brampton North—Caledon 50% ± 9% LPC 46% ± 9% CPC LPC 2025 49.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton North—Caledon 68%▼ LPC 32%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 50% ± 9% CPC 46% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Brampton North—Caledon 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 47% LPC 35% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 46% LPC 36% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 45% LPC 37% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 40% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 43% CPC 41% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 51% CPC 37% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% CPC 36% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 34% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 59% CPC 35% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 59% CPC 35% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 35% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 35% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 60% CPC 34% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 38% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 48% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 48% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 48% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 50% CPC 47% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader