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Canada

Brampton North—Caledon



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton North—Caledon 42% ± 8%▼ CPC 40% ± 8%▲ LPC 15% ± 6% NDP LPC 2021 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton North—Caledon 63%▼ CPC 37%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 42% ± 8% NDP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Brampton North—Caledon 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 16% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 15% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 14% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Brampton North—Caledon

LPC 37% CPC 63% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Brampton North—Caledon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.2% 51.4% 40% ± 8% CPC 29.2% 33.2% 42% ± 8% NDP 17.6% 14.0% 15% ± 6% PPC 0.9% 1.0% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.0% 0.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.