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Canada

New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury


MP elect: Scot Davidson (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury


Liberal Michael Hanrahan
Conservative Scot Davidson*
NDP Nancy Morrison
Green Callum McKinnon
PPC Paul Montague

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury 59% ± 0%▲ CPC 37% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 59.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury

LPC 37% ± 0% CPC 59% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 30% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 52% LPC 33% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 52% LPC 33% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 52% LPC 33% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 40% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 59% LPC 37% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 59% ± 0% 44.9% 47.7% 59.5% LPC 37% ± 0% 30.6% 30.3% 36.9% NDP 2% ± 0% 12.1% 13.0% 1.8% GPC 1% ± 0% 8.8% 1.2% 1.1% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.7% 7.5% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.