Oakville East



Latest projection: April 20, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Oakville East


Liberal Anita Anand*
Conservative Ron Chhinzer
NDP Hailey Ford
Green Bruno Sousa
PPC Henry Karabela
Centrist Saleem Usmani
United Alicia Bedford

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Oakville East 46% ± 8% LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 46.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville East 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oakville East

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oakville East 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 20, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Oakville East

LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 20, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Oakville East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.6% 46.2% 46% ± 8% CPC 39.5% 39.4% 44% ± 8% NDP 7.8% 9.4% 5% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.9% 1.6% 1% ± 2% PPC 1.1% 3.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.