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Canada

Oakville East



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
CPC likely
Oakville East 49% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 7%▲ LPC 10% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville East 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oakville East

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oakville East 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 52% LPC 32% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Oakville East

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Oakville East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.6% 46.2% 35% ± 7% CPC 39.5% 39.4% 49% ± 8% NDP 7.8% 9.4% 10% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.3% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.9% 1.6% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.