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Canada

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
BQ safe
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 45% ± 7%▲ BQ 25% ± 6% LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC BQ 2021 41.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Longueuil—Saint-Hubert >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 45% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 46% LPC 25% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 45% LPC 26% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 43% LPC 26% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 42% LPC 27% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 41% LPC 27% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 38.5% 41.2% 45% ± 7% LPC 34.2% 38.3% 25% ± 6% NDP 8.5% 8.0% 10% ± 4% CPC 6.3% 6.9% 12% ± 4% GPC 11.2% 2.8% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.