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Canada

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert


MP elect: Natilien Joseph (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up LPC/BQ

Candidates | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert


Liberal Natilien Joseph
Conservative Martine Boucher
NDP Nesrine Benhadj
Bloc Quebecois Denis Trudel*

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 41% ± 6% LPC 40% ± 6% BQ 14% ± 4% CPC 5% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 61%▲ LPC 39%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

LPC 41% ± 6% CPC 14% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 40% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 47% LPC 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 47% LPC 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 46% LPC 22% CPC 14% NDP 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 46% LPC 22% CPC 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 43% LPC 26% CPC 13% NDP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 13% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 13% NDP 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 13% NDP 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 38% LPC 34% CPC 13% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 36% BQ 36% CPC 13% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 42% BQ 33% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 43% BQ 32% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 43% BQ 32% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 44% BQ 32% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 45% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% BQ 31% CPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 47% BQ 30% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% BQ 32% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 45% BQ 37% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45% BQ 38% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 45% BQ 37% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 45% BQ 38% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 44% BQ 38% CPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 44% BQ 38% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 43% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 43% BQ 40% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 42% BQ 40% CPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 40% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

LPC 61% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 39% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% BQ 50% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 71% BQ 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 82% BQ 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 68% BQ 32% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% BQ 41% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 58% BQ 42% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% BQ 44% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 61% BQ 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 41% ± 6% 34.2% 38.3% 41.0% BQ 40% ± 6% 38.5% 41.2% 39.7% CPC 14% ± 4% 6.3% 6.9% 14.3% NDP 5% ± 3% 8.5% 8.0% 5.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 11.2% 2.8% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 2.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.