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Canada

Kingston and the Islands


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
Kingston and the Islands 33% ± 6%▲ CPC 31% ± 6% LPC 29% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3%▲ GPC LPC 2021 40.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kingston and the Islands 56%▲ CPC 30%▼ LPC 14%▼ NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kingston and the Islands

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 33% ± 6% NDP 29% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kingston and the Islands 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 31% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Kingston and the Islands

LPC 30% CPC 56% NDP 14% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 54% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 20% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 21% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 18% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 29% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 52% LPC 30% NDP 19% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 17% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 53% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 14% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Kingston and the Islands



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.2% 40.7% 31% ± 6% NDP 22.9% 28.8% 29% ± 6% CPC 20.5% 24.6% 33% ± 6% PPC 2.6% 3.5% 2% ± 2% GPC 8.8% 2.5% 5% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.