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Canada

Parkland


MP elect: Dane Lloyd (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Parkland


Liberal Ashley Fearnall
Conservative Dane Lloyd*
NDP Keri Goad
Green Daniel Birrell
PPC Jason Lavigne
Christian Heritage Kevin Schulthies
United Wade Klassen

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Parkland 76% ± 0%▲ CPC 18% ± 0%▲ LPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 75.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Parkland >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Parkland

LPC 18% ± 0% CPC 76% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Parkland 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 63% NDP 14% LPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 61% NDP 12% LPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 63% LPC 15% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 63% LPC 16% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 62% LPC 16% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 62% LPC 16% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 62% LPC 16% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 63% LPC 15% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 63% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 63% LPC 16% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 63% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 64% LPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 65% LPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 66% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 66% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 66% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 72% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 72% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 69% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 71% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 71% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 70% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 76% LPC 18% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Parkland

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Parkland



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 76% ± 0% 80.2% 63.1% 75.6% LPC 18% ± 0% 6.0% 6.2% 18.0% NDP 4% ± 0% 8.6% 16.3% 4.2% PPC 2% ± 0% 2.5% 11.3% 1.5% GPC 1% ± 0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.