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Canada

Cardigan



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Cardigan


Liberal Kent McDonald
Conservative James Aylward
NDP Lynne Thiele
Green Maria Rodriguez
PPC Adam Harding
Independent Wayne Phelan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Cardigan 57% ± 10% LPC 32% ± 9% CPC 5% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 50.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 57% ± 10% CPC 32% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.3% 50.6% 57% ± 10% CPC 29.1% 30.9% 32% ± 9% NDP 6.6% 9.8% 5% ± 5% GPC 13.8% 4.8% 2% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 3.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.