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Canada


Cardigan


Latest projection: June 9, 2024
CPC leaning
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Cardigan 46% ± 10%▼ CPC 38% ± 9% LPC 9% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan 83%▼ CPC 17%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 38% ± 9% CPC 46% ± 10% NDP 9% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC June 9, 2024

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC 17% CPC 83% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP June 9, 2024

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.3% 50.6% 38% ± 9% CPC 29.1% 30.9% 46% ± 10% NDP 6.6% 9.8% 9% ± 5% GPC 13.8% 4.8% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 3.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.