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Canada

Cardigan


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC leaning
Cardigan 43% ± 10%▲ LPC 39% ± 9%▼ CPC 10% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan 73%▲ LPC 27%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 43% ± 10% CPC 39% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.3% 50.6% 43% ± 10% CPC 29.1% 30.9% 39% ± 9% NDP 6.6% 9.8% 10% ± 6% GPC 13.8% 4.8% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 3.3% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.