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Canada

Cardigan


MP: Kent McDonald (LPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Cardigan


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 10% 49.3% 50.6% 57.0% CPC 37% ± 10% 29.1% 30.9% 37.4% NDP 2% ± 3% 6.6% 9.8% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 2% 13.8% 4.8% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 2% 0.0% 3.3% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Cardigan


Cardigan 57% ± 10% LPC 37% ± 10% CPC LPC 2025 57.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 57% ± 10% CPC 37% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 34% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 35% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 45% LPC 36% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 43% LPC 39% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 43% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% CPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 34% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 32% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 31% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 30% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 28% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 28% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 30% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 31% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 33% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader