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Canada


Cardigan (federal)


MP: Lawrence MacAulay (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

Toss up LPC/CPC
Cardigan 42% ± 10%▲ 39% ± 10% 11% ± 6%▼ 7% ± 5% LPC 2021 50.81% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Cardigan 64% 36% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 39% ± 10% CPC 42% ± 10% NDP 11% ± 6% GPC 7% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC 36% CPC 64% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 65.0% 49.3% 50.81% 39% ± 10% CPC 16.2% 29.0% 30.99% 42% ± 10% NDP 11.1% 6.7% 9.45% 11% ± 6% GPC 6.4% 13.8% 4.84% 7% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 0.0% 3.25% 2% ± 3%