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Cardigan



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Cardigan 42% ± 10%▼ CPC 39% ± 9%▲ LPC 10% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan 66%▼ CPC 34%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 39% ± 9% CPC 42% ± 10% NDP 10% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC 34% CPC 66% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.3% 50.6% 39% ± 9% CPC 29.1% 30.9% 42% ± 10% NDP 6.6% 9.8% 10% ± 6% GPC 13.8% 4.8% 5% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 3.3% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.