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Canada

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
CPC likely
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 52% ± 8%▼ CPC 33% ± 7% LPC 9% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 44.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 52% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 54% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 55% LPC 32% NDP 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 54% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 54% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 54% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 44.8% 33% ± 7% CPC 43.4% 42.1% 52% ± 8% NDP 7.3% 8.0% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 3.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.4% 0.2% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.