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Canada

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


MP elect: Costas Menegakis (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


Liberal Leah Taylor Roy*
Conservative Costas Menegakis
NDP Danielle Maniuk
Green Tom Muench
PPC Igor Tvorogov

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 53% ± 0%▲ CPC 43% ± 0%▼ LPC 3% ± 0%▲ GPC CPC 2025 52.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 99%▲ CPC 1%▼ LPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC 43% ± 0% CPC 53% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 47% LPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 43% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 46% LPC 46% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 46% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 46% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 53% ± 0% 43.4% 42.1% 52.8% LPC 43% ± 0% 42.9% 44.8% 42.6% GPC 3% ± 0% 4.4% 0.2% 2.9% NDP 1% ± 0% 7.3% 8.0% 1.4% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 3.9% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.