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Canada

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


MP: Costas Menegakis (CPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 54% ± 8% 43.4% 42.1% 54.7% LPC 44% ± 8% 42.9% 44.8% 42.8% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.3% 8.0% 1.3% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.4% 0.2% 0.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.0% 3.9% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 54% ± 8%▲ CPC 44% ± 8% LPC CPC 2025 54.7% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 92%▲ CPC 8%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 54% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% LPC 29% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% LPC 30% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 55% LPC 31% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 53% LPC 34% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 47% LPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 43% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 46% LPC 46% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 46% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 46% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 55% LPC 43% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 55% LPC 43% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 54% LPC 43% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 43% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 44% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LPC 8% CPC 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader