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Thornhill



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Thornhill


Liberal Liane Kotler
Conservative Melissa Lantsman*
NDP William McCarty
Green Dominic Piotrowski
PPC Amir Hart

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Thornhill 54% ± 8%▲ CPC 40% ± 8%▼ LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2021 51.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thornhill 97%▲ CPC 3%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thornhill

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 54% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 33% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thornhill

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Thornhill



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 55.3% 51.7% 54% ± 8% LPC 34.8% 36.1% 40% ± 8% NDP 6.3% 6.0% 3% ± 2% GPC 3.0% 1.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.1% 4.6% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.