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Canada

Thornhill


MP: Melissa Lantsman (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Thornhill


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 65% ± 8% 55.3% 51.7% 66.4% LPC 32% ± 7% 34.8% 36.1% 31.2% NDP 1% ± 1% 6.3% 6.0% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.1% 4.6% 0.7% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Thornhill


Thornhill 65% ± 8% CPC 32% ± 7% LPC CPC 2025 66.4% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thornhill >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thornhill

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 65% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 67% LPC 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 66% LPC 20% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 66% LPC 20% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 62% LPC 24% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 61% LPC 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 59% LPC 29% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 31% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 56% LPC 32% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 33% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 38% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 38% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 55% LPC 38% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 39% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 66% LPC 32% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 65% LPC 32% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 65% LPC 32% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 65% LPC 32% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thornhill

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader