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Canada

Thornhill


MP elect: Melissa Lantsman (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Thornhill


Liberal Liane Kotler
Conservative Melissa Lantsman*
NDP William McCarty
Green Dominic Piotrowski
PPC Amir Hart

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Thornhill 66% ± 0%▲ CPC 31% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 66.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thornhill >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thornhill

LPC 31% ± 0% CPC 66% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 33% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 54% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 38% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 38% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 55% LPC 38% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 39% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 66% LPC 31% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thornhill

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Thornhill



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 66% ± 0% 55.3% 51.7% 66.2% LPC 31% ± 0% 34.8% 36.1% 31.0% NDP 1% ± 0% 6.3% 6.0% 1.2% GPC 1% ± 0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.8% PPC 1% ± 0% 0.1% 4.6% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.