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Canada


Thunder Bay–Superior North (federal)


MP: Patty Hadju (LPC)


Latest projection: March 24, 2024

CPC leaning gain
Thunder Bay–Superior North 34% ± 7% 30% ± 7% 27% ± 6% 5% ± 4% 4% ± 3% LPC 2021 40.71% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Thunder Bay–Superior North 78%▲ 17%▼ 6% Odds of winning | March 24, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay–Superior North

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 34% ± 7% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay–Superior North 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay–Superior North

LPC 6% CPC 78% NDP 17% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay–Superior North



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.0% 42.9% 40.71% 27% ± 6% NDP 23.2% 21.1% 27.12% 30% ± 7% CPC 17.4% 25.6% 24.2% 34% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 1.7% 5.94% 4% ± 3% GPC 13.8% 8.4% 1.76% 5% ± 4%