logo
logo
Canada

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak


MP elect: Louis Plamondon (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ safe

Candidates | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak


Liberal Pierre Tousignant
Conservative Michel Plourde
NDP Tommy Gagnon
Green Yanick Lapierre
Bloc Quebecois Louis Plamondon*
PPC Lara Stillo

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak 47% ± 6% BQ 27% ± 6% LPC 22% ± 5% CPC BQ 2025 47.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 5% BQ 47% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% CPC 23% LPC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 55% CPC 24% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 54% CPC 24% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 55% CPC 23% LPC 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 53% CPC 23% LPC 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 52% CPC 23% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 51% CPC 23% LPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 49% CPC 23% LPC 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 48% CPC 24% LPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 48% CPC 23% LPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 47% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 47% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 46% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 47% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 47% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 47% CPC 23% LPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 46% CPC 22% LPC 21% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 46% CPC 22% LPC 21% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 45% CPC 22% LPC 21% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 44% CPC 23% LPC 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 44% CPC 23% LPC 22% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 43% CPC 24% LPC 22% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 44% CPC 23% LPC 22% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 43% CPC 24% LPC 23% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 43% CPC 24% LPC 24% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 43% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 43% CPC 24% LPC 24% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 43% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 43% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 43% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 23% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 22% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 23% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 23% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 44% CPC 24% LPC 24% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 24% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 23% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 44% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 45% LPC 24% CPC 23% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 45% LPC 24% CPC 24% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 45% CPC 24% LPC 23% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 46% CPC 24% LPC 23% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 45% CPC 24% LPC 22% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 45% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 45% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 45% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 45% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 45% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 22% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 22% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 22% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 47% ± 6% 56.7% 54.8% 47.0% LPC 27% ± 6% 17.8% 16.9% 27.3% CPC 22% ± 5% 16.1% 16.8% 21.6% NDP 2% ± 2% 5.2% 5.1% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.2% 1.5% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 2.4% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.