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Recent electoral history | Eglinton—Lawrence


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 47% ± 7% 53.3% 48.5% 49.3% CPC 45% ± 7% 33.1% 36.4% 47.8% NDP 4% ± 3% 8.5% 9.2% 1.6% GPC 2% ± 2% 4.1% 3.0% 0.7%

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338Canada Eglinton—Lawrence projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Eglinton—Lawrence 40% 55% 47% ± 7% LPC 37% 52% 45% ± 7% CPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Eglinton—Lawrence 68%▲ LPC 32%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 47% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Eglinton—Lawrence 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 50% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 45% NDP 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 5% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Eglinton—Lawrence

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 80.1% English 3.7% Tagalog 2.1% Spanish 1.9% Portuguese 1.4% Italian 1.2% Mandarin 1.1% RussianEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 5.7% No diploma 16.7% High school 3.1% Trade 14.2% College / Cégep 3.3% Some university 34.1% Bachelor's 22.9% PostgraduateEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 63.2% Not visible minority 36.8% Visible minority 10.9% Filipino 5.7% Black 4.8% Chinese 3.9% South Asian 3.9% Latin American 1.9% MultipleEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 28.8% Catholic 22.4% No Religion 22.2% Jewish 6.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.5% Orthodox 3.5% Muslim 2.8% Anglican 1.8% United ChurchEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 53.4% Owner 46.6% RenterEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 56.3% Employed 35.9% Not in labour force 7.9% UnemployedEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.4% Non-Indigenous 0.6% Indigenous identity 0.3% Metis 0.2% First NationsEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 59.0% Car / truck / van 28.7% Public transit 7.3% Walking 3.8% Other 1.2% BicycleEglinton—LawrenceSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.