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Canada

Eglinton—Lawrence


MP elect: Vince Gasparro (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Eglinton—Lawrence


Liberal Vince Gasparro
Conservative Karen Stintz
NDP Allison Tanzola
Green Wayne Chechuevskiy
PPC Timothy Gleeson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Eglinton—Lawrence 49% ± 0%▼ LPC 48% ± 0%▲ CPC LPC 2025 48.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Eglinton—Lawrence 59%▼ LPC 41%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 49% ± 0% CPC 48% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Eglinton—Lawrence 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 40% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% CPC 41% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 48% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Eglinton—Lawrence



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 0% 53.3% 48.5% 48.9% CPC 48% ± 0% 33.1% 36.4% 48.0% NDP 2% ± 0% 8.5% 9.2% 1.8% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.1% 3.0% 0.7% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.