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Canada


Essex (federal)


MP: Chris Lewis (CPC)


Latest projection: December 3, 2023

CPC likely hold
Essex 49% ± 7%▼ 34% ± 7%▲ 8% ± 3%▼ 5% ± 4% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 41.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Essex 99%▼ 1%▲ <1% Odds of winning | December 3, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Essex

LPC 8% ± 3% CPC 49% ± 7% NDP 34% ± 7% PPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC

Odds of winning | Essex

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Essex



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 35.7% 41.4% 41.1% 49% ± 7% NDP 41.4% 34.6% 31.85% 34% ± 7% LPC 20.9% 19.0% 15.41% 8% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 9.9% 5% ± 4% GPC 1.9% 3.2% 1.23% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.25% 0% ± 0%