logo
Canada
Canada flag

Eglinton—Lawrence

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Vince Gasparro
Ontario
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Eglinton—Lawrence


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 45% ± 7% 33.1% 36.4% 47.8% LPC 45% ± 7% 53.3% 48.5% 49.3% NDP 6% ± 4% 8.5% 9.2% 1.6% GPC 2% ± 2% 4.1% 3.0% 0.7%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


Canada flag

338Canada Eglinton—Lawrence projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Eglinton—Lawrence


Eglinton—Lawrence 38% 53% 45% ± 7% CPC 37% 52% 45% ± 7% LPC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Eglinton—Lawrence 55%▲ CPC 45%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Eglinton—Lawrence 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 50% CPC 48% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 45% NDP 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Eglinton—Lawrence

LPC 45% CPC 55% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-01-11