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Canada

Haldimand—Norfolk


MP elect: Leslyn Lewis (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Haldimand—Norfolk


Liberal Colin Walsh
Conservative Leslyn Lewis*
NDP Shannon Horner-Shepherd
Green Nathan Hawkins
PPC Henry Geissler
Christian Heritage Lily Eggink

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Haldimand—Norfolk 58% ± 6% CPC 36% ± 6% LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 57.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Haldimand—Norfolk

LPC 36% ± 6% CPC 58% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Haldimand—Norfolk 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 63% NDP 15% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 62% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 59% LPC 18% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 57% LPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 53% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 53% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Haldimand—Norfolk

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Haldimand—Norfolk



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 58% ± 6% 46.8% 47.4% 57.6% LPC 36% ± 6% 24.5% 27.5% 36.4% NDP 3% ± 2% 15.3% 13.3% 3.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 8.1% 0.0% 1.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.1% 10.5% 0.9% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.