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Canada

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun


MP: Claude Guay (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 8% 44.1% 43.4% 50.9% BQ 20% ± 5% 23.7% 21.8% 21.3% CPC 12% ± 5% 7.2% 7.6% 13.8% NDP 11% ± 5% 16.2% 19.0% 10.4% GPC 2% ± 2% 6.7% 3.0% 2.4% PPC 0% ± 1% 0.9% 3.4% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for LaSalle—Émard—Verdun


LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 54% ± 8%▲ LPC 20% ± 5% BQ 12% ± 5%▼ CPC 11% ± 5% NDP LPC 2025 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% LaSalle—Émard—Verdun >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC 54% ± 8% CPC 12% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 5% BQ 20% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 30% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 29% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 29% NDP 26% LPC 25% CPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 28% NDP 26% LPC 26% CPC 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 30% BQ 26% NDP 25% CPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 33% BQ 26% NDP 22% CPC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 35% BQ 25% NDP 20% CPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 38% BQ 24% NDP 19% CPC 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 39% BQ 23% NDP 19% CPC 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 41% BQ 22% NDP 17% CPC 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 43% BQ 22% NDP 17% CPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 44% BQ 22% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 44% BQ 22% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 44% BQ 22% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 44% BQ 22% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 44% BQ 22% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 48% BQ 21% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 48% BQ 21% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 49% BQ 20% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% BQ 20% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% BQ 20% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% BQ 18% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 55% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% BQ 16% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% BQ 16% CPC 12% NDP 12% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 55% BQ 16% CPC 12% NDP 12% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 55% BQ 16% CPC 12% NDP 12% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% BQ 16% CPC 12% NDP 12% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 54% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 54% BQ 15% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% BQ 19% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 51% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 52% BQ 20% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 19% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 22% LPC 11% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 25% LPC 14% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 23% LPC 20% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 67% NDP 11% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 90% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 97% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader