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LaSalle—Émard—Verdun



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up NDP/BQ
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 29% ± 7%▼ BQ 28% ± 7%▲ NDP 24% ± 6% LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 43.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 51%▼ BQ 41%▲ NDP 7%▲ LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC 24% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 28% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 29% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 35% BQ 25% NDP 19% CPC 12% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 34% BQ 26% NDP 19% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 35% BQ 25% NDP 20% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% BQ 24% NDP 20% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 35% BQ 23% NDP 20% CPC 13% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% BQ 23% NDP 20% CPC 13% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 32% BQ 23% NDP 21% CPC 15% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 30% NDP 23% BQ 23% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 30% NDP 23% BQ 23% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 30% NDP 24% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 30% NDP 24% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 30% NDP 24% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 30% NDP 25% BQ 25% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 30% NDP 25% BQ 24% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 29% NDP 26% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 30% NDP 25% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 31% NDP 25% BQ 24% CPC 14% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 29% BQ 28% NDP 24% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 28% LPC 28% NDP 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 28% LPC 27% NDP 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 28% NDP 26% LPC 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 28% NDP 27% LPC 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 28% NDP 27% LPC 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 29% LPC 27% NDP 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 29% LPC 27% NDP 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 29% LPC 27% NDP 26% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 30% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 30% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 30% NDP 26% LPC 25% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 30% NDP 26% LPC 25% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 30% NDP 27% LPC 24% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 29% NDP 28% LPC 24% CPC 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC 7% NDP 41% BQ 51% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 89% NDP 6% BQ 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 88% NDP 7% BQ 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 79% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 82% NDP 9% BQ 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 82% NDP 10% BQ 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 80% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 82% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 69% NDP 20% BQ 11% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 79% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 85% NDP 10% BQ 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 52% BQ 42% NDP 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 44% LPC 41% NDP 16% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 49% LPC 35% NDP 16% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 53% NDP 25% LPC 22% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 50% NDP 33% LPC 17% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 51% NDP 28% LPC 21% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 54% LPC 26% NDP 19% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 56% LPC 28% NDP 16% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 61% LPC 25% NDP 14% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 70% LPC 22% NDP 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 69% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 74% NDP 13% LPC 13% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 71% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 68% NDP 27% LPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 51% NDP 41% LPC 7% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.1% 43.4% 24% ± 6% BQ 23.7% 21.8% 29% ± 7% NDP 16.2% 19.0% 28% ± 7% CPC 7.2% 7.6% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.9% 3.4% 1% ± 2% GPC 6.7% 3.0% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.