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Canada


Lac-Saint-Jean (federal)


MP: Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe (BQ)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

BQ likely hold
Lac-Saint-Jean 47% ± 8% 34% ± 7%▲ 12% ± 4% 4% ± 3% 4% ± 3% BQ 2021 50.71% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Lac-Saint-Jean 98% 2% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lac-Saint-Jean

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 34% ± 7% BQ 47% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Lac-Saint-Jean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC BQ

Odds of winning | Lac-Saint-Jean

LPC <1% CPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Lac-Saint-Jean



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 18.4% 44.0% 50.71% 47% ± 8% CPC 33.3% 23.1% 25.58% 34% ± 7% LPC 18.4% 25.1% 18.62% 12% ± 4% NDP 28.5% 5.1% 3.45% 4% ± 3% GPC 1.5% 1.9% 1.65% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0% ± 0%