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LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

Latest update: January 18, 2026
L
MP: Claude Guay
Quebec
LPC safe
Projection — LaSalle—Émard—Verdun → Demographic data — LaSalle—Émard—Verdun → Regional projection — Quebec → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 43% ± 7% 44.1% 43.4% 50.9% BQ 24% ± 6% 23.7% 21.8% 21.2% NDP 14% ± 5% 16.2% 19.0% 10.4% CPC 12% ± 4% 7.2% 7.6% 13.8% GPC 4% ± 4% 6.7% 3.0% 2.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 3.4% 0.5%

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338Canada LaSalle—Émard—Verdun projection

Latest update: January 18, 2026

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 36% 51% 43% ± 7% ▼ LPC 18% 30% 24% ± 6% BQ 9% 19% 14% ± 5% NDP 8% 16% 12% ± 4% CPC 1% 8% 4% ± 4% GPC LPC 2025 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% LaSalle—Émard—Verdun >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC 43% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 4% BQ 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC IND January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% BQ 19% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 10% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 51% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 51% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 52% BQ 20% CPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 54% BQ 19% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 54% BQ 19% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 54% BQ 19% NDP 12% CPC 11% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 53% BQ 20% NDP 12% CPC 11% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% BQ 21% NDP 12% CPC 12% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 51% BQ 21% NDP 12% CPC 12% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 50% BQ 21% NDP 12% CPC 12% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 49% BQ 22% NDP 13% CPC 12% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 49% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 49% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 49% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 48% BQ 23% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 48% BQ 23% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 47% BQ 23% CPC 14% NDP 12% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 47% BQ 24% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 46% BQ 24% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 45% BQ 25% CPC 13% NDP 12% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 44% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 44% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 44% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 43% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2026-01-18

Odds of winning | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18


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Demographic data | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 58.5% French 27.8% English 2.6% Spanish 2.3% Mandarin 1.0% Russian 0.8% Italian 0.8% ArabicLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.1% No diploma 16.4% High school 10.9% Trade 16.8% College / Cégep 4.0% Some university 24.1% Bachelor's 17.7% PostgraduateLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 74.3% Not visible minority 25.7% Visible minority 7.5% Black 4.3% Chinese 4.0% Latin American 3.2% South Asian 2.7% Arab 1.1% Southeast AsianLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 39.9% Catholic 37.4% No Religion 5.8% Muslim 5.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 2.2% Orthodox 1.9% Other Christian 1.1% Hindu 1.1% AnglicanLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 66.0% Renter 34.0% OwnerLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 59.9% Employed 33.4% Not in labour force 6.7% UnemployedLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.4% Non-Indigenous 1.6% Indigenous identity 0.9% First Nations 0.5% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% InukLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 55.0% Car / truck / van 32.0% Public transit 8.5% Walking 2.7% Bicycle 1.8% OtherLaSalle—Émard—VerdunSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.