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Canada

Saint John—Kennebecasis


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC likely
Saint John—Kennebecasis 45% ± 8%▼ CPC 35% ± 8%▲ LPC 13% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John—Kennebecasis 94%▼ CPC 6%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 45% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint John—Kennebecasis 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 53% LPC 31% NDP 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 53% LPC 30% NDP 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 53% LPC 30% NDP 12% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 12% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 12% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 13% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 45% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC 6% CPC 94% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Saint John—Kennebecasis



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 36.1% 42.6% 35% ± 8% CPC 37.1% 36.4% 45% ± 8% NDP 11.9% 13.2% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.9% 4.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 10.3% 2.9% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.