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Canada

Saint John—Kennebecasis



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Saint John—Kennebecasis


Liberal Wayne Long*
Conservative Melissa Young
NDP Armand Cormier
Green David MacFarquhar

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Saint John—Kennebecasis 54% ± 9% LPC 39% ± 9% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 42.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John—Kennebecasis 98%▲ LPC 2%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC 54% ± 9% CPC 39% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint John—Kennebecasis 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saint John—Kennebecasis



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 36.1% 42.6% 54% ± 9% CPC 37.1% 36.4% 39% ± 9% NDP 11.9% 13.2% 5% ± 4% GPC 10.3% 2.9% 1% ± 2% PPC 1.9% 4.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.