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Saint John—Kennebecasis

Latest update: January 25, 2026
L
MP: Wayne Long
New Brunswick
LPC likely
Projection — Saint John—Kennebecasis → Demographic data — Saint John—Kennebecasis → Regional projection — Atlantic Canada → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Saint John—Kennebecasis


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 53% ± 8% 36.1% 42.6% 58.1% CPC 36% ± 7% 37.1% 36.4% 37.3% NDP 6% ± 4% 11.9% 13.2% 2.7% GPC 3% ± 3% 10.3% 2.9% 1.6% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.9% 4.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Saint John—Kennebecasis projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Saint John—Kennebecasis 46% 61% 53% ± 8% LPC 29% 44% 36% ± 7% ▼ CPC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP 0% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 58.1% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John—Kennebecasis >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC 53% ± 8% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint John—Kennebecasis 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 41% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% CPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 58% CPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 58% CPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 58% CPC 38% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 58% CPC 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 58% CPC 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 59% CPC 37% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 60% CPC 36% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 58% CPC 36% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 53% CPC 36% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 53% CPC 36% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 53% CPC 36% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Saint John—Kennebecasis

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25


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Demographic data | Saint John—Kennebecasis

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 94.0% English 1.4% French 1.1% Arabic 0.8% Mandarin 0.4% Korean 0.3% Tagalog 0.2% PunjabiSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 7.5% No diploma 27.7% High school 6.1% Trade 25.9% College / Cégep 1.9% Some university 20.7% Bachelor's 10.1% PostgraduateSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 89.3% Not visible minority 10.7% Visible minority 2.4% Black 2.2% South Asian 1.7% Chinese 1.3% Arab 0.9% Filipino 0.5% Latin AmericanSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 36.0% No Religion 28.6% Catholic 7.8% Anglican 6.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.3% Baptist 5.0% United Church 2.8% Muslim 2.2% Other ChristianSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 61.2% Owner 38.8% RenterSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 56.1% Employed 37.7% Not in labour force 6.2% UnemployedSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.6% Non-Indigenous 2.4% Indigenous identity 1.4% First Nations 0.7% Metis 0.1% Inuk 0.1% OthersSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 88.2% Car / truck / van 6.1% Walking 3.5% Public transit 2.0% Other 0.2% BicycleSaint John—KennebecasisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.