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Canada

Saint-Laurent



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Saint-Laurent 45% ± 8% LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 5% BQ LPC 2021 59.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Laurent >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Laurent

LPC 45% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% BQ 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Laurent 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 10% BQ 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 54% CPC 23% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 56% CPC 22% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 55% CPC 23% NDP 10% BQ 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 10% BQ 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 10% BQ 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 51% CPC 26% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 51% CPC 26% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 52% CPC 26% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 51% CPC 26% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 11% BQ 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 12% BQ 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 47% CPC 27% NDP 14% BQ 9% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 48% CPC 26% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 49% CPC 25% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 12% BQ 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 12% BQ 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 46% CPC 29% NDP 13% BQ 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 14% BQ 9% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 14% BQ 9% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Saint-Laurent

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Saint-Laurent



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 58.9% 59.3% 45% ± 8% CPC 17.3% 18.3% 28% ± 7% NDP 10.1% 10.8% 14% ± 5% BQ 7.0% 7.9% 9% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 3.2% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.2% 0.1% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.