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Canada

Avalon



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Avalon 47% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% LPC 15% ± 6% NDP LPC 2021 50.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Avalon 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Avalon

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Avalon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 12% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 12% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 13% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 14% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 14% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 12% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 12% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Avalon

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Avalon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.3% 50.9% 35% ± 8% CPC 30.6% 33.0% 47% ± 8% NDP 17.2% 14.3% 15% ± 6% PPC 0.1% 1.8% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.8% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.