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Canada

Avalon



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC likely
Avalon 53% ± 9%▲ LPC 34% ± 8%▼ CPC 9% ± 5%▼ NDP LPC 2021 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Avalon >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Avalon

LPC 53% ± 9% CPC 34% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Avalon 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Avalon

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Avalon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.3% 50.9% 53% ± 9% CPC 30.6% 33.0% 34% ± 8% NDP 17.2% 14.3% 9% ± 5% GPC 4.8% 0.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.1% 1.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.