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Canada

Avalon



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Avalon


Liberal Paul Connors
Conservative Steve Kent
NDP Judy Vanta
Rhinoceros Alexander Tilley

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Avalon 60% ± 9%▲ LPC 34% ± 8% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Avalon >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Avalon

LPC 60% ± 9% CPC 34% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Avalon 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 62% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Avalon

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Avalon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.3% 50.9% 60% ± 9% CPC 30.6% 33.0% 34% ± 8% NDP 17.2% 14.3% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.1% 1.8% 0% ± 0% GPC 4.8% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.