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Canada

Brampton—Chinguacousy Park


MP: Shafqat Ali (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 9% 49.0% 50.8% 48.8% CPC 43% ± 9% 27.1% 31.0% 44.4% NDP 3% ± 3% 18.6% 16.8% 2.7% PPC 2% ± 2% 1.4% 0.0% 1.7% GPC 1% ± 2% 3.8% 0.0% 1.2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Brampton—Chinguacousy Park


Brampton—Chinguacousy Park 50% ± 9% LPC 43% ± 9% CPC 3% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 48.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton—Chinguacousy Park 80%▼ LPC 20%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park

LPC 50% ± 9% CPC 43% ± 9% NDP 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 18% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% LPC 36% NDP 18% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park

LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader