logo
Canada

Yellowhead



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Yellowhead


Liberal Michael Fark
Conservative William Stevenson
NDP Avni Soma
PPC Vicky Bayford
Christian Heritage Dale Heath

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Yellowhead 68% ± 7% CPC 22% ± 6% LPC 6% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 60.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Yellowhead >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Yellowhead

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 68% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Yellowhead 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 61% LPC 13% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 58% LPC 17% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 58% LPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 59% LPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 59% LPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 60% LPC 22% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 61% LPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 61% LPC 22% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 62% LPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 62% LPC 21% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 63% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 63% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 63% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 66% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 67% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 68% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 68% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 68% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 68% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 68% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 68% LPC 21% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 68% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 68% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 68% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Yellowhead

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Yellowhead



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 72.4% 60.2% 68% ± 7% LPC 9.7% 10.6% 22% ± 6% NDP 10.0% 14.7% 6% ± 3% PPC 2.8% 9.3% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.8% 1.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.