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Canada

Mississauga—Erin Mills


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Mississauga—Erin Mills 43% ± 8% CPC 40% ± 8% LPC 11% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 51.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills 69%▲ CPC 31%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC 31% CPC 69% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.8% 51.2% 40% ± 8% CPC 32.3% 33.5% 43% ± 8% NDP 9.1% 10.3% 11% ± 4% PPC 1.1% 3.4% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.7% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.