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Canada

Mississauga—Erin Mills


MP elect: Iqra Khalid (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Mississauga—Erin Mills


Liberal Iqra Khalid*
Conservative Milad Mikael
NDP Ehab Mustapha
Green Sulaiman Khan
PPC Michael Bayer
Independent Michael Matulewicz

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Mississauga—Erin Mills 56% ± 6%▲ LPC 40% ± 6% CPC LPC 2025 55.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC 56% ± 6% CPC 40% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 47% LPC 34% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 46% LPC 36% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 46% LPC 37% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 39% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 41% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 46% CPC 40% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 38% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 37% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 38% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 37% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 35% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 36% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 34% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 34% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 34% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 53% CPC 35% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 36% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% CPC 40% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 56% CPC 40% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 6% 53.8% 51.2% 55.7% CPC 40% ± 6% 32.3% 33.5% 40.0% NDP 2% ± 2% 9.1% 10.3% 2.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 3.4% 1.2% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.