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Mississauga—Erin Mills



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Mississauga—Erin Mills 45% ± 8% CPC 36% ± 7% LPC 13% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 51.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

LPC 6% CPC 94% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.8% 51.2% 36% ± 7% CPC 32.3% 33.5% 45% ± 8% NDP 9.1% 10.3% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.4% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.7% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.