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Canada

Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC safe
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 51% ± 8% LPC 20% ± 6% CPC 13% ± 5%▲ NDP 10% ± 5%▼ BQ 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 69.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC 51% ± 8% CPC 20% ± 6% NDP 13% ± 5% BQ 10% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 63% CPC 15% BQ 9% NDP 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 10% NDP 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 63% CPC 14% BQ 9% NDP 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 63% CPC 15% BQ 9% NDP 8% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 63% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 8% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 63% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 8% PPC 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 58% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 57% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 57% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 57% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 57% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 57% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 57% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 58% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 8% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 8% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 8% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 58% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 9% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 56% CPC 19% NDP 10% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 53% CPC 20% NDP 12% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 54% CPC 19% NDP 12% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 55% CPC 19% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 54% CPC 19% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 52% CPC 21% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 52% CPC 21% NDP 11% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 12% BQ 11% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 13% BQ 10% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.5% 69.6% 51% ± 8% CPC 12.0% 10.5% 20% ± 6% NDP 6.4% 8.2% 13% ± 5% BQ 9.4% 8.0% 10% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.