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Canada

Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel



Latest projection: March 18, 2025
LPC safe
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 65% ± 8%▲ LPC 17% ± 6%▼ CPC 7% ± 4% BQ 7% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 69.6% 338Canada vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC 65% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 4% BQ 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 54% CPC 19% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 55% CPC 19% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 54% CPC 19% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 52% CPC 21% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 52% CPC 21% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 12% BQ 11% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 13% BQ 10% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 50% CPC 22% NDP 13% BQ 10% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 50% CPC 22% NDP 13% BQ 10% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 LPC 49% CPC 22% NDP 13% BQ 11% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC 49% CPC 23% NDP 12% BQ 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 49% CPC 24% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 49% CPC 23% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 51% CPC 22% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 55% CPC 20% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 9% BQ 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 8% BQ 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 62% CPC 19% NDP 7% BQ 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 63% CPC 18% BQ 7% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 65% CPC 17% BQ 7% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.5% 69.6% 65% ± 8% CPC 12.0% 10.5% 17% ± 6% BQ 9.4% 8.0% 7% ± 4% NDP 6.4% 8.2% 7% ± 4% PPC 1.1% 3.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.