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Canada


Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel (federal)


MP: Patricia Lattanzio (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC safe hold
Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel 66% ± 7% 12% ± 4% 10% ± 4% 9% ± 4% LPC 2021 69.22% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel

LPC 66% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 10% ± 4% BQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 64.7% 61.3% 69.22% 66% ± 7% CPC 11.1% 11.9% 10.45% 12% ± 4% BQ 7.2% 9.6% 8.32% 9% ± 4% NDP 14.8% 6.5% 8.25% 10% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 3.77% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0% ± 0% GPC 1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 1% ± 1%