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Canada

Beauce


MP elect: Jason Groleau (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Beauce


Liberal Maryelle-Henriette Doumbia
Conservative Jason Groleau
NDP Annabelle Lafond-Poirier
Bloc Quebecois Gaetan Mathieu
PPC Maxime Bernier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Beauce 60% ± 6% CPC 19% ± 5% LPC 14% ± 4% BQ 6% ± 3% PPC CPC 2025 59.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beauce >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beauce

LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 60% ± 6% BQ 14% ± 4% PPC 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Beauce 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ PPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 66% BQ 17% PPC 7% LPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 66% BQ 16% PPC 7% LPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 66% BQ 16% PPC 7% LPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 65% BQ 16% PPC 7% LPC 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 65% BQ 16% PPC 7% LPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 65% BQ 15% PPC 8% LPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 65% BQ 15% PPC 8% LPC 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 63% BQ 14% LPC 8% PPC 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 63% BQ 13% LPC 8% PPC 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 63% BQ 13% LPC 9% PPC 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 62% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 62% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 62% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 62% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 62% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 61% BQ 13% LPC 11% PPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 60% BQ 13% LPC 13% PPC 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 60% BQ 13% LPC 13% PPC 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 60% LPC 13% BQ 13% PPC 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 60% LPC 13% BQ 12% PPC 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 61% LPC 13% BQ 12% PPC 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 61% LPC 13% BQ 12% PPC 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 61% LPC 13% BQ 12% PPC 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 63% LPC 14% BQ 11% PPC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 63% LPC 14% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 63% LPC 14% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 64% LPC 14% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 63% LPC 15% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 63% LPC 15% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 64% LPC 15% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 64% LPC 15% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 64% LPC 14% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 66% LPC 15% BQ 10% PPC 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 62% LPC 15% PPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 63% LPC 15% PPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 64% LPC 14% PPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 11% BQ 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 63% LPC 15% PPC 11% BQ 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 63% LPC 15% PPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 63% LPC 14% PPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 58% LPC 14% PPC 13% BQ 12% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 59% LPC 14% PPC 13% BQ 12% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 60% LPC 14% PPC 12% BQ 12% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 60% LPC 13% PPC 12% BQ 12% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 61% LPC 13% PPC 12% BQ 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 61% LPC 13% PPC 12% BQ 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 60% LPC 14% BQ 12% PPC 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% PPC 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% PPC 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% PPC 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% PPC 6% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Beauce

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Beauce



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 60% ± 6% 38.5% 48.3% 59.7% LPC 19% ± 5% 11.7% 12.3% 19.1% BQ 14% ± 4% 14.2% 15.2% 13.6% PPC 6% ± 3% 28.3% 18.2% 5.8% NDP 2% ± 1% 3.1% 2.9% 1.7% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.