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Canada

Middlesex—London



Latest projection: March 27, 2025
CPC likely
Middlesex—London 50% ± 8% CPC 34% ± 7%▲ LPC 9% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 45.3% 338Canada vote projection | March 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Middlesex—London 99%▼ CPC 1%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Middlesex—London

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Middlesex—London 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 13% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 12% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Middlesex—London

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Middlesex—London



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 43.5% 45.3% 50% ± 8% LPC 32.3% 27.2% 34% ± 7% NDP 15.5% 17.8% 9% ± 4% GPC 6.0% 1.8% 4% ± 3% PPC 2.1% 7.8% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.