338Canada | Kildonan–St. Paul (Manitoba federal district)




46006 - Kildonan–St. Paul

Province: Manitoba
Population (2016): 84,075 residents
Population density: 493 pop./km² (rank: 160 of 338)
Median household income: $75 124 (rank: 127 of 338)
Member of Parliament: Raquel Dancho (CPC)



Latest projection (September 20, 2021)

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2021 Candidates | Kildonan–St. Paul


Mary-Jane Bennett
Raquel Dancho
Emily Clark
Sean Howe





Federal vote projection | Kildonan–St. Paul

Last update: September 20, 2021







Odds of winning | Kildonan–St. Paul

Last update: September 20, 2021






Electoral history of Kildonan–St. Paul



(If you cannot see the graph above, turn your phone by 90°.)
(Results of 2011 election have been transposed on the new electoral map. Thanks to Kyle Hutton for his precious help.)




Projections vs results: How did the projections do in 2019? | Kildonan–St. Paul



On the graph above, colored bar represent the final 338Canada projections for the 2019 federal election. The triangle markers indicates the results in this electoral districts. Only parties that won at least 8% of the vote (or were projected above 8%) are listed.


Kildonan–St. Paul


Final 2019 Projection 2019 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.8% ± 9.2% 44.8% Within confidence interval
29.2% ± 8.0% 27.9% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 5.8% 21.2% Outside confidence interval


*Only parties that won at least 8% of the popular vote in this electoral district (or were projected above 8%) are indicated.







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