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Canada

Provencher



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
CPC safe
Provencher 50% ± 9%▼ CPC 25% ± 7%▲ LPC 10% ± 5%▼ NDP 6% ± 6% PPC 5% ± 4% GPC CPC 2021 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Provencher >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Provencher

LPC 25% ± 7% CPC 50% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 6% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Provencher 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 56% NDP 14% LPC 13% PPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 56% NDP 14% LPC 13% PPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 56% NDP 14% LPC 13% PPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 56% NDP 13% LPC 13% PPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 57% LPC 13% NDP 13% PPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 57% LPC 14% NDP 13% PPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 58% LPC 14% NDP 13% PPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 59% LPC 13% NDP 13% PPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 59% LPC 13% NDP 13% PPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 58% LPC 14% NDP 13% PPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 61% NDP 13% LPC 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 61% NDP 13% LPC 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 61% NDP 13% LPC 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 61% LPC 13% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 60% LPC 14% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% LPC 14% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 59% LPC 15% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 57% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 57% LPC 18% NDP 11% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 20% NDP 11% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 53% LPC 22% NDP 11% PPC 7% GPC 5% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 22% NDP 11% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 10% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Provencher

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Provencher



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 66.6% 48.3% 50% ± 9% LPC 12.8% 16.5% 25% ± 7% NDP 12.4% 12.2% 10% ± 5% PPC 2.3% 17.5% 6% ± 6% GPC 5.9% 2.6% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.