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Canada

Provencher


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC safe
Provencher 53% ± 9% CPC 17% ± 5% LPC 11% ± 5%▼ NDP 10% ± 8% PPC 4% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 48.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Provencher >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Provencher

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 53% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 10% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Provencher 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 55% LPC 15% NDP 12% PPC 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 55% LPC 16% NDP 12% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 55% LPC 16% NDP 11% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 56% LPC 16% NDP 11% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 55% LPC 17% NDP 11% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 54% LPC 17% NDP 11% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 54% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 52% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 52% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 53% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 53% LPC 17% NDP 11% PPC 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Provencher

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Provencher



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 66.6% 48.3% 53% ± 9% PPC 2.3% 17.5% 10% ± 8% LPC 12.8% 16.5% 17% ± 5% NDP 12.4% 12.2% 11% ± 5% GPC 5.9% 2.6% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.