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Canada

Provencher



Latest projection: April 16, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Provencher


Liberal Trevor Kirczenow
Conservative Ted Falk*
NDP Brandy Schmidt
Green Blair Mahaffy
PPC Noel Gautron

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Provencher 53% ± 9% CPC 35% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Provencher >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Provencher

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 53% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Provencher 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 22% NDP 11% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 10% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 7% GPC 5% PPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 7% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 7% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 7% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 7% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 6% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 6% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Provencher

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Provencher



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 66.6% 48.3% 53% ± 9% LPC 12.8% 16.5% 35% ± 8% NDP 12.4% 12.2% 6% ± 4% PPC 2.3% 17.5% 3% ± 4% GPC 5.9% 2.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.