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Canada


Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot (federal)


MP: Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay (BQ)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ safe hold
Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot 49% ± 8%▲ 18% ± 5% 15% ± 5%▼ 15% ± 5% BQ 2021 47.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 15% ± 5% BQ 49% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 24.3% 41.4% 47.49% 49% ± 8% LPC 27.6% 21.3% 22.68% 18% ± 5% CPC 16.7% 14.4% 13.49% 15% ± 5% NDP 28.7% 18.4% 11.63% 15% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 0.9% 2.72% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 1% ± 1%