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Canada

St. John’s East



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
LPC leaning
St. John’s East 38% ± 8% LPC 31% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 7%▼ CPC LPC 2021 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. John’s East 88%▲ LPC 10%▼ NDP 2%▼ CPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. John’s East

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | St. John’s East 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 31% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 30% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 29% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 37% NDP 33% CPC 28% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 37% NDP 34% CPC 27% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 27% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 38% NDP 34% CPC 25% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 39% NDP 33% CPC 24% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 40% NDP 33% CPC 24% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 40% NDP 33% CPC 24% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 39% NDP 33% CPC 25% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 38% NDP 33% CPC 25% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 38% NDP 33% CPC 26% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 27% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 29% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 29% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 27% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | St. John’s East

LPC 88% CPC 2% NDP 10% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 76% NDP 15% CPC 9% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 72% NDP 14% CPC 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 75% NDP 17% CPC 9% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 70% NDP 21% CPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 74% NDP 21% CPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 76% NDP 21% CPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 71% NDP 28% CPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 66% NDP 33% CPC 1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 76% NDP 24% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 83% NDP 17% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 86% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 86% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 84% NDP 16% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 81% NDP 19% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 81% NDP 18% CPC 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 80% NDP 19% CPC 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 85% NDP 11% CPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 85% NDP 11% CPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 85% CPC 8% NDP 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 85% CPC 8% NDP 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 79% NDP 11% CPC 10% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 81% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 78% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 76% NDP 18% CPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 73% NDP 21% CPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 75% NDP 20% CPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 84% NDP 13% CPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 88% NDP 10% CPC 2% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | St. John’s East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 33.7% 45.1% 38% ± 8% NDP 46.6% 34.8% 31% ± 7% CPC 17.8% 18.1% 27% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 1.9% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.