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Canada


St. John’s East


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
LPC leaning
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
St. John’s East 37% ± 8% LPC 31% ± 7% NDP 30% ± 7% CPC LPC 2021 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. John’s East 76%▼ LPC 15%▼ NDP 9%▲ CPC Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. John’s East

LPC 37% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | St. John’s East 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | St. John’s East

LPC 76% CPC 9% NDP 15% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | St. John’s East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 33.7% 45.1% 37% ± 8% NDP 46.6% 34.8% 31% ± 7% CPC 17.8% 18.1% 30% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 1% ± 1% GPC 1.9% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.