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Canada

Bourassa



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC safe
Bourassa 44% ± 8% LPC 23% ± 6% BQ 13% ± 5% NDP 13% ± 5% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 60.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bourassa >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bourassa

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 13% ± 5% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 23% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Bourassa 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 55% BQ 18% CPC 11% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 11% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 56% BQ 19% CPC 10% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 56% BQ 18% CPC 11% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 56% BQ 17% CPC 11% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 57% BQ 17% CPC 11% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 52% BQ 18% CPC 13% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 51% BQ 18% CPC 13% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 52% BQ 19% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 52% BQ 18% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 52% BQ 18% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 52% BQ 18% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 54% BQ 18% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 54% BQ 18% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 52% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 54% BQ 17% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 55% BQ 16% CPC 13% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 54% BQ 17% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 53% BQ 17% CPC 12% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 48% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 47% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 46% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 47% BQ 21% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 48% BQ 22% CPC 12% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 48% BQ 22% CPC 12% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 48% BQ 22% CPC 12% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 47% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 47% BQ 22% CPC 13% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 45% BQ 23% CPC 14% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 45% BQ 22% CPC 14% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 44% BQ 23% CPC 13% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 13% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Bourassa

LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Bourassa



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.6% 60.4% 44% ± 8% BQ 22.4% 18.7% 23% ± 6% NDP 7.9% 8.0% 13% ± 5% CPC 7.2% 7.0% 13% ± 5% PPC 0.9% 3.7% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.3% 1.8% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.