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Canada


Thérèse-De Blainville (federal)


MP: Louise Chabot (BQ)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ likely hold
Thérèse-De Blainville 43% ± 8%▲ 29% ± 7%▼ 13% ± 4% 9% ± 4% 4% ± 3% BQ 2021 41.18% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville 99%▲ 1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 4% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 43% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 27.1% 41.8% 41.18% 43% ± 8% LPC 32.5% 35.8% 35.2% 29% ± 7% CPC 12.4% 9.0% 11.01% 13% ± 4% NDP 24.9% 7.6% 7.3% 9% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.6% 2.66% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.4% 4.6% 1.95% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%