Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: May 17, 2026

Leader	Pierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 2025	41.3%
Current vote projection	34.7% ± 3.3%
Current number of MPs	140
Current seat projection	94 [62-130]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | May 17, 2026

Seat projection | May 17, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Souris—Moose Mountain Steven Bonk	C	CPC safe
2.	Grande Prairie Chris Warkentin	C	CPC safe
3.	Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Jeremy Patzer	C	CPC safe
4.	Lakeland Shannon Stubbs	C	CPC safe
5.	Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Laila Goodridge	C	CPC safe
6.	Battle River—Crowfoot Pierre Poilievre	C	CPC safe
7.	Bow River David Bexte	C	CPC safe
8.	Peace River—Westlock Arnold Viersen	C	CPC safe
9.	Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Kelly Block	C	CPC safe
10.	Yorkton—Melville Cathay Wagantall	C	CPC safe
11.	Foothills John Barlow	C	CPC safe
12.	Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Glen Motz	C	CPC safe
13.	Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Rosemarie Falk	C	CPC safe
14.	Ponoka—Didsbury Blaine Calkins	C	CPC safe
15.	Parkland Dane Lloyd	C	CPC safe
16.	Leduc—Wetaskiwin Mike Lake	C	CPC safe
17.	Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Bob Zimmer	C	CPC safe
18.	Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Fraser Tolmie	C	CPC safe
19.	Red Deer Burton Bailey	C	CPC safe
20.	Prince Albert Randy Hoback	C	CPC safe
21.	Airdrie—Cochrane Blake Richards	C	CPC safe
22.	Portage—Lisgar Branden Leslie	C	CPC safe
23.	Yellowhead William Stevenson	C	CPC safe
24.	Riding Mountain Dan Mazier	C	CPC safe
25.	Thornhill Melissa Lantsman	C	CPC safe
26.	Provencher Ted Falk	C	CPC safe
27.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis	C	CPC safe
28.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer	C	CPC safe
29.	Beauce Jason Groleau	C	CPC safe
30.	Brandon—Souris Grant Jackson	C	CPC safe
31.	Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière Luc Berthold	C	CPC safe
32.	Calgary Shepard Tom Kmiec	C	CPC safe
33.	Cariboo—Prince George Todd Doherty	C	CPC safe
34.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper	C	CPC safe
35.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie	C	CPC safe
36.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan	C	CPC likely
37.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC likely
38.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison	C	CPC likely
39.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC likely
40.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC likely
41.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon	C	CPC likely
42.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin	C	CPC likely
43.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis	C	CPC likely
44.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas	C	CPC likely
45.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl	C	CPC likely
46.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC likely
47.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC likely
48.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien	C	CPC likely
49.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan	C	CPC likely
50.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC likely
51.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC likely
52.	Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC likely
53.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC likely
54.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC likely
55.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde	C	CPC likely
56.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC leaning
57.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC leaning
58.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux	C	CPC leaning
59.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	L	CPC leaning
60.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore	C	CPC leaning
61.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC leaning
62.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson	C	CPC leaning
63.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold	C	CPC leaning
64.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC leaning
65.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie	C	CPC leaning
66.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small	C	CPC leaning
67.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner	C	CPC leaning
68.	Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC leaning
69.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC leaning
70.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC leaning
71.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo	C	CPC leaning
72.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC leaning
73.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
74.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
75.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
76.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
77.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
78.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
79.	Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
80.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
81.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
82.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
83.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
84.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
85.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
86.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
87.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
88.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
89.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
90.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
91.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
92.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
93.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
94.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
95.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
96.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
97.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
98.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
99.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
100.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
101.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
102.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
103.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
104.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
105.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
106.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
107.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
108.	Niagara West Dean Allison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
109.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
110.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
111.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
112.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
113.	York Centre Roman Baber	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
114.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
115.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
116.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
117.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
118.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
119.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz	C	LPC leaning
120.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
121.	Cambridge Connie Cody	C	LPC leaning
122.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
123.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
124.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	LPC leaning
125.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	LPC leaning
126.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean	C	LPC leaning
127.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	LPC leaning
128.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho	C	LPC leaning
129.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson	C	LPC leaning
130.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	LPC leaning
131.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe	C	LPC leaning
132.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley	C	LPC leaning
133.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Richard Martel	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
134.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen	C	LPC leaning
135.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton	C	LPC leaning
136.	Niagara South Fred Davies	C	LPC leaning
137.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	LPC leaning
138.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	LPC leaning
139.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC leaning
140.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle	L	LPC likely
141.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC likely
142.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC likely
143.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	LPC likely
144.	Labrador Philip Earle	L	LPC likely
145.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill	C	LPC likely
146.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr	L	LPC likely
147.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns	N	NDP leaning
148.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains	L	LPC likely
149.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	LPC likely
150.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey	L	LPC likely
151.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	LPC likely
152.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	LPC likely
153.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	LPC likely
154.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	LPC likely
155.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	LPC likely
156.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini	L	LPC likely
157.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai	L	LPC likely
158.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal	L	LPC likely
159.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer	L	LPC likely
160.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen	L	LPC likely
161.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste	L	LPC likely
162.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon	L	LPC likely
163.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	LPC likely
164.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	LPC likely
165.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	LPC likely
166.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	LPC likely
167.	Central Nova Sean Fraser	L	LPC likely
168.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC likely
169.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan	L	LPC likely
170.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC likely
171.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang	L	LPC likely
172.	Nunavut Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]	L	Toss up LPC/NDP
173.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	LPC likely
174.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC likely
175.	Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC likely
176.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC likely
177.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC likely
178.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	LPC likely
179.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC likely
180.	Delta Jill McKnight	L	LPC likely
181.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty	L	LPC likely
182.	Cardigan Kent McDonald	L	LPC likely
183.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	LPC likely
184.	Yukon Brendan Hanley	L	LPC likely
185.	Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC likely
186.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC safe
187.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC safe
188.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry	L	LPC safe
189.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault	L	LPC safe
190.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC safe
191.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC safe
192.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald	L	LPC safe
193.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway	L	LPC safe
194.	Jonquière Mario Simard	B	BQ likely
195.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC safe
196.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC safe
197.	Edmonton Strathcona Heather McPherson	N	NDP safe
198.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	LPC leaning
199.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC safe
200.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski	L	LPC safe
201.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC safe
202.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie	L	LPC likely
203.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC safe
204.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC safe
205.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC safe
206.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather	L	LPC safe
207.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson	L	LPC safe
208.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger	L	LPC safe

Conservative Party of Canada

Infolettre Qc125

Vote projection | May 17, 2026

Seat projection | May 17, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada