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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: June 29, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.8% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection133 [88-172]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 29, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 133 [88-172] 40% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ CPC 133 [88-172] June 29, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 49/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 31/37 BC 20/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | June 29, 2025

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.4% ▼ 39.8% ± 4.4% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 44.2% ▼ Probabilities % CPC June 29, 2025

Seat projection | June 29, 2025

35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 88 ▼ 133 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 172 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC June 29, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
8. Bow River CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
20. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
21. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
25. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
31. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
32. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
33. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
34. Beauce CPC safe >99%
35. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
36. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
37. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
38. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
39. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
40. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
41. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
42. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
43. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
44. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
45. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely >99%
46. Essex CPC likely >99%
47. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC likely >99%
48. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely >99%
49. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely >99%
50. Calgary Heritage CPC likely >99%
51. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely >99%
52. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely >99%
53. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely >99%
54. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 99%
55. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely 99%
56. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 99%
57. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 99%
58. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 99%
59. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 99%
60. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
61. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 98%
62. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 98%
63. York—Durham CPC likely 98%
64. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 98%
65. Oxford CPC likely 98%
66. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 97%
67. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 97%
68. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely 97%
69. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 96%
70. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 96%
71. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 95%
72. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 94%
73. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 94%
74. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 93%
75. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 93%
76. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 93%
77. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 92%
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 92%
79. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 92%
80. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 92%
81. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 91%
82. York Centre CPC likely 91%
83. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 89%
84. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 88%
85. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC leaning 88%
86. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 88%
87. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 87%
88. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 87%
89. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 86%
90. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 86%
91. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 83%
92. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 83%
93. Niagara West CPC leaning 83%
94. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 83%
95. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 82%
96. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 82%
97. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 82%
98. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 82%
99. Windsor West CPC leaning 79%
100. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 79%
101. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 78%
102. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 77%
103. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 77%
104. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 77%
105. Edmonton West CPC leaning 75%
106. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 75%
107. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 74%
108. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 73%
109. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 70%
110. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 70%
111. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 70%
112. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
113. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
114. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
115. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
116. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
117. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
118. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
119. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
120. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
121. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
122. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
123. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
124. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
125. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
126. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
127. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
128. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
129. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
130. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
131. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
132. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
133. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
134. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
135. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
136. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
137. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
138. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
139. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
140. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
141. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
142. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 38%
143. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
144. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
145. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
146. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
147. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 35%
148. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
149. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
150. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
151. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 33%
152. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
153. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
154. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
155. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
156. Calgary McKnight LPC leaning 28%
157. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 26%
158. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 26%
159. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 24%
160. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 23%
161. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 22%
162. Brampton East LPC leaning 22%
163. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 20%
164. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 20%
165. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 20%
166. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 19%
167. Delta LPC leaning 17%
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 16%
169. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 15%
170. Carleton LPC leaning 15%
171. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 14%
172. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 14%
173. Oakville East LPC leaning 13%
174. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 12%
175. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 11%
176. Calgary Confederation LPC likely 9%
177. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 8%
178. Labrador LPC likely 7%
179. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 7%
180. Oakville West LPC likely 7%
181. Willowdale LPC likely 7%
182. Whitby LPC likely 6%
183. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 5%
184. Egmont LPC likely 4%
185. Don Valley North LPC likely 4%
186. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 4%
187. Etobicoke North LPC likely 4%
188. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 4%
189. Yukon LPC likely 4%
190. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 3%
191. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 3%
192. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 3%
193. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 3%
194. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 2%
195. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 2%
196. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
197. Jonquière BQ likely 2%
198. St. Catharines LPC likely 2%
199. Central Nova LPC likely 2%
200. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
201. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 1%
202. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 1%
203. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
204. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
205. Mount Royal LPC likely 1%
206. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%