338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: June 20, 2021

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 201934.3%
Current vote projection30.1% ± 4.3%
Current number of MP's119
Current seat projection111 ± 29



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
5. Bow River CPC safe >99%
6. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
7. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
11. Foothills CPC safe >99%
12. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
13. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
17. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
18. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
19. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
20. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
25. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
26. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
30. Provencher CPC safe >99%
31. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
32. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
33. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
34. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
35. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
37. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
38. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe >99%
39. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe >99%
40. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
41. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
42. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe >99%
43. Mégantic–L`Érable CPC safe >99%
44. Regina–Qu`Appelle CPC safe >99%
45. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
46. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
47. Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
50. Oxford CPC safe >99%
51. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
52. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
53. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
54. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
55. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe >99%
56. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
57. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
58. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
59. York–Simcoe CPC likely 99%
60. Perth–Wellington CPC likely 99%
61. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely 99%
62. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
63. Thornhill CPC likely 98%
64. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 98%
65. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 98%
66. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 97%
67. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 97%
68. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely 97%
69. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 97%
70. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 96%
71. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 96%
72. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely 96%
73. Beauce CPC likely 96%
74. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 96%
75. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 96%
76. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 96%
77. Regina–Wascana CPC likely 95%
78. Fundy Royal CPC likely 95%
79. Calgary Confederation CPC likely 94%
80. Durham CPC likely 93%
81. Niagara West CPC likely 93%
82. Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 93%
83. Simcoe North CPC likely 92%
84. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 90%
85. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning 89%
86. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 89%
87. Carleton CPC leaning 88%
88. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning 86%
89. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 85%
90. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning 82%
91. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning 82%
92. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 82%
93. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning 81%
94. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 81%
95. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning 79%
96. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 79%
97. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning 79%
98. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning 78%
99. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 77%
100. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning 72%
101. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up 70%
102. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up 69%
103. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 69%
104. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 68%
105. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 60%
106. Saskatoon–University Toss up 60%
107. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 57%
108. Oshawa Toss up 54%
109. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 54%
110. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up 54%
111. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 53%
112. West Nova Toss up 53%
113. Niagara Falls Toss up 52%
114. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 48%
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 46%
116. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 45%
117. Essex Toss up 44%
118. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up 39%
119. Kenora Toss up 35%
120. Richmond Hill Toss up 34%
121. Saskatoon West Toss up 32%
122. Edmonton Centre Toss up 32%
123. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 31%
124. King–Vaughan LPC leaning 27%
125. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 25%
126. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 23%
127. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 19%
128. Trois-Rivières Toss up 18%
129. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning 17%
130. York Centre LPC leaning 17%
131. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC leaning 15%
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning 14%
133. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 13%
134. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 13%
135. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely 9%
136. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 9%
137. Fredericton LPC leaning 9%
138. Oakville LPC likely 9%
139. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 8%
140. Niagara Centre Toss up 7%
141. Whitby LPC likely 6%
142. Central Nova LPC likely 4%
143. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 4%
144. St. Catharines LPC likely 4%
145. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 4%
146. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 3%
147. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 3%
148. Cambridge LPC likely 3%
149. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 2%
150. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 2%
151. Willowdale LPC likely 2%
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 2%
153. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 2%
154. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely 2%
155. Egmont LPC likely 2%
156. Jonquière BQ likely 2%
157. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up 1%
158. Nepean LPC likely 1%
159. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely 1%
160. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 1%
161. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC likely <1%
162. Don Valley North LPC likely <1%
163. Milton LPC likely <1%
164. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up <1%
165. Labrador LPC likely <1%
166. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely <1%
167. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
4. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
5. Bow River CPC safe
6. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
7. Lakeland CPC safe
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
9. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
10. Yellowhead CPC safe
11. Foothills CPC safe
12. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
13. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
15. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
16. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
17. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
18. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
19. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
20. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
21. Prince Albert CPC safe
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
25. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
26. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
29. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
30. Provencher CPC safe
31. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
32. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
33. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
34. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
35. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
36. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
37. Lethbridge CPC safe
38. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe
39. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe
40. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
41. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
42. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe
43. Mégantic–L`Érable CPC safe
44. Regina–Qu`Appelle CPC safe
45. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
46. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
47. Abbotsford CPC safe
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
50. Oxford CPC safe
51. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
52. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
53. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
54. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe
55. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe
56. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
57. Edmonton West CPC safe
58. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
59. York–Simcoe CPC likely
60. Perth–Wellington CPC likely
61. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely
62. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
63. Thornhill CPC likely
64. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
65. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
66. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
67. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
68. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely
69. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
70. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
71. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
72. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely
73. Beauce CPC likely
74. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely
75. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
76. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
77. Regina–Wascana CPC likely
78. Fundy Royal CPC likely
79. Calgary Confederation CPC likely
80. Durham CPC likely
81. Niagara West CPC likely
82. Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
83. Simcoe North CPC likely
84. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
85. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning
86. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
87. Carleton CPC leaning
88. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning
89. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
90. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning
91. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning
92. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
93. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning
94. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
95. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning
96. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
97. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning
98. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning
99. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
100. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning
101. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up
102. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up
103. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
104. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
105. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
106. Saskatoon–University Toss up
107. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
108. Oshawa Toss up
109. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
110. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up
111. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
112. West Nova Toss up
113. Niagara Falls Toss up
114. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
116. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
117. Essex Toss up
118. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up
119. Kenora Toss up
120. Richmond Hill Toss up
121. Saskatoon West Toss up
122. Edmonton Centre Toss up
123. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
124. King–Vaughan LPC leaning
125. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
126. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
127. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
128. Trois-Rivières Toss up
129. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning
130. York Centre LPC leaning
131. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC leaning
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning
133. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
134. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
135. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely
136. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
137. Fredericton LPC leaning
138. Oakville LPC likely
139. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
140. Niagara Centre Toss up
141. Whitby LPC likely
142. Central Nova LPC likely
143. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
144. St. Catharines LPC likely
145. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
146. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
147. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
148. Cambridge LPC likely
149. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
150. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
151. Willowdale LPC likely
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
153. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
154. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely
155. Egmont LPC likely
156. Jonquière BQ likely
157. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up
158. Nepean LPC likely
159. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
160. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
161. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC likely
162. Don Valley North LPC likely
163. Milton LPC likely
164. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
165. Labrador LPC likely
166. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely
167. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely



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