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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: September 14, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.4% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPs144
Current seat projection134 [91-170]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 14, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 134 [91-170] 39% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × ✓ × × × × × × × × × × CPC 134 [91-170] September 14, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 50/122 MB 5/14 SK 13/14 AB 33/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | September 14, 2025

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.4% ▼ 39.4% ± 4.1% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.5% ▼ Probabilities % CPC September 14, 2025

Seat projection | September 14, 2025

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 91 ▼ 134 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 170 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC September 14, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
31. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
32. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
33. Beauce CPC safe >99%
34. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
35. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
36. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
37. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
38. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
39. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
40. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
41. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
43. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
44. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
45. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
46. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
47. Essex CPC safe >99%
48. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely >99%
49. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely >99%
50. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely >99%
51. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely >99%
52. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely >99%
53. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely >99%
54. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely >99%
55. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
56. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely >99%
57. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely >99%
58. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 99%
59. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
60. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 99%
61. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 99%
62. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 99%
63. York—Durham CPC likely 99%
64. Oxford CPC likely 99%
65. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely 98%
66. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 97%
67. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 97%
68. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 97%
69. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 96%
70. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 96%
71. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 95%
72. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 94%
73. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 94%
74. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 94%
75. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 94%
76. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 94%
77. York Centre CPC likely 93%
78. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 92%
79. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 92%
80. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 92%
81. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 92%
82. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 90%
83. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 90%
84. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 90%
85. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 89%
86. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 89%
87. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 89%
88. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 89%
89. Niagara West CPC leaning 86%
90. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 86%
91. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 86%
92. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 85%
93. Edmonton West CPC leaning 84%
94. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 83%
95. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 83%
96. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 83%
97. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 81%
98. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 81%
99. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 80%
100. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 79%
101. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 79%
102. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 77%
103. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 76%
104. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 76%
105. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 76%
106. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 75%
107. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 75%
108. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 74%
109. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 73%
110. Oshawa CPC leaning 73%
111. Windsor West CPC leaning 70%
112. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 70%
113. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
114. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
115. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
116. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
117. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
118. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
119. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 66%
120. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
121. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
122. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
123. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
124. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
125. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
126. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
127. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
128. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
129. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
130. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
131. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
132. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
133. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
134. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
135. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
136. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
137. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
138. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
139. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
140. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
141. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
142. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
143. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
144. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
145. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
146. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
147. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 29%
148. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 29%
149. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 29%
150. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 28%
151. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 28%
152. Elmwood—Transcona NDP leaning 28%
153. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 25%
154. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 25%
155. Brampton East LPC leaning 24%
156. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning 24%
157. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 23%
158. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 23%
159. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 22%
160. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 21%
161. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 21%
162. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 21%
163. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 20%
164. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 19%
165. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 18%
166. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 18%
167. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 17%
168. Carleton LPC leaning 17%
169. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 16%
170. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 15%
171. Oakville East LPC leaning 14%
172. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 13%
173. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
174. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 12%
175. Labrador LPC leaning 11%
176. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 9%
177. Oakville West LPC likely 8%
178. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 8%
179. Delta LPC likely 8%
180. Willowdale LPC likely 8%
181. Whitby LPC likely 7%
182. Egmont LPC likely 7%
183. Kitchener Centre GPC likely 6%
184. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 6%
185. Don Valley North LPC likely 5%
186. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 4%
187. Etobicoke North LPC likely 4%
188. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 4%
189. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 4%
190. Yukon LPC likely 4%
191. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
192. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 4%
193. Central Nova LPC likely 3%
194. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 3%
195. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 3%
196. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 3%
197. St. Catharines LPC likely 2%
198. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
199. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 2%
200. Mount Royal LPC likely 2%
201. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
202. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
203. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%
204. Nunavut NDP leaning 1%