338Canada | Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: November 28, 2021

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection32.1% ± 3.7%
Current number of MP's119
Current seat projection116 [96-141]



Vote Projection | Conservative Party of Canada | November 28, 2021




Seat Projection | Conservative Party of Canada | November 28, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe >99%
5. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Foothills CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
10. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
11. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
12. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
13. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
14. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
17. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
19. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
20. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
21. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
22. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
23. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
24. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
25. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
27. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe >99%
28. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
30. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
31. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
32. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
33. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
34. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
35. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
37. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
38. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
39. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
40. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe >99%
41. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
42. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
43. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
44. Huron–Bruce CPC safe >99%
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
46. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
47. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
48. Beauce CPC safe >99%
49. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
50. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe >99%
51. Provencher CPC safe >99%
52. Perth–Wellington CPC safe >99%
53. Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
54. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
55. Oxford CPC safe >99%
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe >99%
57. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
58. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe >99%
59. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
60. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
61. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe >99%
62. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
63. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe >99%
64. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe >99%
65. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
66. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
67. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe >99%
68. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
69. York–Simcoe CPC safe >99%
70. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe >99%
71. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe >99%
72. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe >99%
73. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe >99%
74. Regina–Wascana CPC safe >99%
75. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe >99%
76. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe >99%
77. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
78. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe >99%
79. Durham CPC safe >99%
80. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
81. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely 99%
82. Niagara West CPC likely 99%
83. West Nova CPC likely 99%
84. Calgary Centre CPC likely 99%
85. Carleton CPC likely 99%
86. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely 99%
87. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely 99%
88. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely 99%
89. Thornhill CPC likely 99%
90. Brantford–Brant CPC likely 99%
91. Simcoe North CPC likely 98%
92. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 98%
93. Calgary Confederation CPC likely 98%
94. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC likely 97%
95. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 96%
96. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 96%
97. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely 94%
98. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely 91%
99. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely 90%
100. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning 90%
101. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 88%
102. Oshawa CPC leaning 88%
103. Kenora CPC leaning 86%
104. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning 84%
105. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning 83%
106. Essex CPC leaning 76%
107. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 76%
108. Bay of Quinte CPC leaning 75%
109. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning 74%
110. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC leaning 71%
111. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning 71%
112. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP 61%
113. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
114. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
115. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
116. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
117. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
118. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
119. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
120. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
121. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
122. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning 27%
123. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 25%
124. Richmond Centre LPC leaning 25%
125. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning 25%
126. Fredericton LPC leaning 25%
127. Cambridge LPC leaning 22%
128. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning 22%
129. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning 20%
130. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 19%
131. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 17%
132. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning 17%
133. London West LPC leaning 16%
134. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning 16%
135. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC leaning 16%
136. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 16%
137. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 16%
138. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 15%
139. St. Catharines LPC leaning 14%
140. Markham–Unionville LPC leaning 14%
141. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning 12%
142. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning 12%
143. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning 11%
144. Oakville LPC leaning 11%
145. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC leaning 11%
146. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning 11%
147. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning 10%
148. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning 9%
149. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely 9%
150. Yukon LPC leaning 9%
151. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 8%
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/NDP 8%
153. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely 7%
154. Richmond Hill LPC likely 7%
155. Whitby LPC likely 7%
156. Burlington LPC likely 6%
157. Malpeque LPC likely 6%
158. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 6%
159. York Centre LPC likely 6%
160. Labrador LPC likely 6%
161. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely 3%
162. Delta LPC likely 3%
163. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC likely 3%
164. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC likely 3%
165. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP 3%
166. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 3%
167. Nickel Belt LPC leaning 2%
168. Nepean LPC likely 2%
169. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC likely 2%
170. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
4. Bow River CPC safe
5. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
6. Lakeland CPC safe
7. Foothills CPC safe
8. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
9. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
10. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
11. Yellowhead CPC safe
12. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
13. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
14. Prince Albert CPC safe
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
16. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
17. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
19. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
20. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
21. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
22. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
23. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
24. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
25. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
27. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe
28. Lethbridge CPC safe
29. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
30. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
31. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
32. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
33. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
34. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
35. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
36. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
37. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
38. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
39. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
40. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe
41. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
42. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
43. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
44. Huron–Bruce CPC safe
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
46. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
47. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
48. Beauce CPC safe
49. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe
50. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe
51. Provencher CPC safe
52. Perth–Wellington CPC safe
53. Abbotsford CPC safe
54. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
55. Oxford CPC safe
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe
57. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe
58. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe
59. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
60. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe
61. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe
62. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
63. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe
64. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe
65. Fundy Royal CPC safe
66. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
67. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe
68. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
69. York–Simcoe CPC safe
70. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe
71. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe
72. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe
73. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe
74. Regina–Wascana CPC safe
75. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe
76. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe
77. Edmonton West CPC safe
78. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe
79. Durham CPC safe
80. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
81. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely
82. Niagara West CPC likely
83. West Nova CPC likely
84. Calgary Centre CPC likely
85. Carleton CPC likely
86. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely
87. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely
88. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely
89. Thornhill CPC likely
90. Brantford–Brant CPC likely
91. Simcoe North CPC likely
92. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
93. Calgary Confederation CPC likely
94. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC likely
95. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
96. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
97. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely
98. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely
99. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely
100. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning
101. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
102. Oshawa CPC leaning
103. Kenora CPC leaning
104. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning
105. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning
106. Essex CPC leaning
107. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
108. Bay of Quinte CPC leaning
109. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning
110. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC leaning
111. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning
112. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP
113. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC
114. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
115. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC
116. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC
117. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC
118. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up LPC/CPC
119. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
120. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC
121. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning
123. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
124. Richmond Centre LPC leaning
125. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning
126. Fredericton LPC leaning
127. Cambridge LPC leaning
128. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning
129. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning
130. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
131. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
132. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning
133. London West LPC leaning
134. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning
135. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC leaning
136. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
137. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
138. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
139. St. Catharines LPC leaning
140. Markham–Unionville LPC leaning
141. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning
142. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning
143. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning
144. Oakville LPC leaning
145. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC leaning
146. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning
147. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning
148. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning
149. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely
150. Yukon LPC leaning
151. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/NDP
153. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely
154. Richmond Hill LPC likely
155. Whitby LPC likely
156. Burlington LPC likely
157. Malpeque LPC likely
158. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
159. York Centre LPC likely
160. Labrador LPC likely
161. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely
162. Delta LPC likely
163. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC likely
164. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC likely
165. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP
166. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
167. Nickel Belt LPC leaning
168. Nepean LPC likely
169. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC likely
170. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely



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