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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: December 15, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection43.1% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection226 [200-248]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.0 seat/% [200-248] 43% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC [200-248] December 15, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 8/11 NB 7/10 QC 11/78 ON 97/122 MB 9/14 SK 13/14 AB 36/37 BC 35/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.0% ▼ 43.1% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 47.1% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | December 15, 2024

170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Majority 172 seats Min. 200 ▼ 226 ▼ Max. 248 ▼ Probabilities % CPC December 15, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Foothills CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
9. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
12. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
13. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
14. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
15. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
18. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
19. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
20. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
21. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
23. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
24. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
27. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
28. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
29. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
30. Beauce CPC safe >99%
31. Parkland CPC safe >99%
32. Carleton CPC safe >99%
33. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
34. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
35. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
37. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
38. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
40. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
41. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
43. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
44. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
45. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe >99%
46. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
47. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe >99%
48. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
49. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
50. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
51. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
52. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
53. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
54. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
55. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
56. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe >99%
57. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
58. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
59. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
60. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe >99%
61. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
62. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe >99%
63. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
64. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
65. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
66. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
67. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe >99%
68. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe >99%
69. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
70. Oxford CPC safe >99%
71. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
72. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
73. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
74. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe >99%
75. Provencher CPC safe >99%
76. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe >99%
77. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
78. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
79. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe >99%
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
81. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
82. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe >99%
83. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
84. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe >99%
85. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe >99%
86. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
87. Regina—Wascana CPC safe >99%
88. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
89. Kelowna CPC safe >99%
90. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
91. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe >99%
92. Calgary Centre CPC safe >99%
93. Simcoe North CPC safe >99%
94. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
95. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
96. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
97. Bay of Quinte CPC safe >99%
98. Long Range Mountains CPC safe >99%
99. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
100. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
101. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe >99%
102. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe >99%
103. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe >99%
104. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
106. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe >99%
107. Peterborough CPC safe >99%
108. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
109. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe >99%
110. Calgary Confederation CPC safe >99%
111. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe >99%
112. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe >99%
113. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
114. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe >99%
115. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe >99%
116. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe >99%
117. Niagara South CPC safe >99%
118. Central Newfoundland CPC safe >99%
119. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
120. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe >99%
121. Essex CPC safe >99%
122. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
123. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
124. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe >99%
125. Cambridge CPC safe >99%
126. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe >99%
127. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
128. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC safe >99%
129. Delta CPC safe >99%
130. London West CPC safe >99%
131. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
132. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
133. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC safe >99%
134. York Centre CPC safe >99%
135. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe >99%
136. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
137. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe >99%
138. St. Catharines CPC safe >99%
139. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe >99%
140. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC safe >99%
141. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC safe >99%
142. Markham—Unionville CPC safe >99%
143. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe >99%
144. Oakville East CPC safe >99%
145. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
146. Kanata CPC safe >99%
147. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC safe >99%
148. Burlington CPC safe >99%
149. Etobicoke Centre CPC safe >99%
150. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe >99%
151. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
152. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC safe >99%
153. Winnipeg West CPC safe >99%
154. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely >99%
155. Richmond Hill South CPC likely >99%
156. Oakville West CPC likely >99%
157. Willowdale CPC likely >99%
158. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely >99%
159. Central Nova CPC likely >99%
160. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
161. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely >99%
162. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC likely >99%
163. Malpeque CPC likely >99%
164. North Island—Powell River CPC likely >99%
165. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely >99%
166. Whitby CPC likely >99%
167. Nepean CPC likely 99%
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely 99%
169. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 99%
170. Kings—Hants CPC likely 99%
171. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely 99%
172. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely 99%
173. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 99%
174. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 99%
175. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely 99%
176. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely 98%
177. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely 98%
178. Avalon CPC likely 97%
179. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 97%
180. Don Valley North CPC likely 97%
181. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely 97%
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely 97%
183. Egmont CPC likely 96%
184. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely 95%
185. Charlottetown CPC likely 95%
186. Vancouver Granville CPC likely 95%
187. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely 94%
188. Labrador CPC likely 94%
189. Calgary McKnight CPC likely 94%
190. Brampton Centre CPC likely 93%
191. Cardigan CPC likely 91%
192. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely 91%
193. Sudbury CPC likely 91%
194. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC likely 90%
195. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning 90%
196. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning 90%
197. Waterloo CPC leaning 88%
198. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning 86%
199. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning 84%
200. Guelph CPC leaning 84%
201. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning 83%
202. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 82%
203. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning 81%
204. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 81%
205. Don Valley West CPC leaning 79%
206. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 78%
207. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 78%
208. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning 74%
209. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning 74%
210. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning 73%
211. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning 73%
212. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning 72%
213. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up CPC/NDP 70%
214. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
215. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ 66%
216. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
217. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
218. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
219. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 60%
220. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
221. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
222. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
223. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
224. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 56%
225. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
226. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
227. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
228. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
229. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 43%
230. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 40%
231. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
232. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
233. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP 37%
234. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
235. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 36%
236. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
237. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
238. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
239. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
240. Etobicoke North LPC leaning 29%
241. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 28%
242. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 27%
243. Spadina—Harbourfront NDP leaning 25%
244. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning 24%
245. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning 21%
246. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning 18%
247. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP leaning 17%
248. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 16%
249. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning 15%
250. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning 14%
251. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning 11%
252. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 10%
253. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 10%
254. Kitchener Centre GPC likely 9%
255. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely 7%
256. Surrey Newton LPC likely 7%
257. University—Rosedale Toss up LPC/NDP 7%
258. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 7%
259. Cape Spear LPC likely 6%
260. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely 6%
261. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
262. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely 5%
263. London—Fanshawe NDP likely 4%
264. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely 4%
265. Beauséjour LPC likely 2%
266. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning 2%
267. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Bow River CPC safe
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe
6. Foothills CPC safe
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
8. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
9. Lakeland CPC safe
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
12. Huron—Bruce CPC safe
13. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
14. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
15. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
16. Red Deer CPC safe
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
18. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
19. Prince Albert CPC safe
20. Riding Mountain CPC safe
21. Brandon—Souris CPC safe
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe
23. Thornhill CPC safe
24. York—Durham CPC safe
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
26. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
27. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
28. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
29. Lethbridge CPC safe
30. Beauce CPC safe
31. Parkland CPC safe
32. Carleton CPC safe
33. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
34. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
35. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
36. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
37. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
38. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
40. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
41. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
43. Yellowhead CPC safe
44. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
45. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
46. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
47. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
48. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
49. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
50. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
51. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
52. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
53. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
54. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
55. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
56. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
57. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
58. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
59. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
60. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
61. King—Vaughan CPC safe
62. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
63. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
64. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
65. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
66. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
67. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
68. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
69. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
70. Oxford CPC safe
71. Calgary East CPC safe
72. Fundy Royal CPC safe
73. Middlesex—London CPC safe
74. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe
75. Provencher CPC safe
76. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
77. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
78. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
79. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
81. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
82. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
83. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
84. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
85. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
86. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
87. Regina—Wascana CPC safe
88. Niagara West CPC safe
89. Kelowna CPC safe
90. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
91. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
92. Calgary Centre CPC safe
93. Simcoe North CPC safe
94. Edmonton West CPC safe
95. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
96. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
97. Bay of Quinte CPC safe
98. Long Range Mountains CPC safe
99. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
100. Calgary Skyview CPC safe
101. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
102. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
103. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
104. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
106. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
107. Peterborough CPC safe
108. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
109. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
110. Calgary Confederation CPC safe
111. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
112. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
113. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
114. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
115. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
116. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
117. Niagara South CPC safe
118. Central Newfoundland CPC safe
119. Saskatoon South CPC safe
120. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
121. Essex CPC safe
122. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
123. Oshawa CPC safe
124. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
125. Cambridge CPC safe
126. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe
127. Saskatoon—University CPC safe
128. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC safe
129. Delta CPC safe
130. London West CPC safe
131. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
132. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
133. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC safe
134. York Centre CPC safe
135. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
136. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
137. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe
138. St. Catharines CPC safe
139. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe
140. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC safe
141. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC safe
142. Markham—Unionville CPC safe
143. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe
144. Oakville East CPC safe
145. Edmonton Manning CPC safe
146. Kanata CPC safe
147. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC safe
148. Burlington CPC safe
149. Etobicoke Centre CPC safe
150. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
151. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
152. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC safe
153. Winnipeg West CPC safe
154. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely
155. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
156. Oakville West CPC likely
157. Willowdale CPC likely
158. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
159. Central Nova CPC likely
160. Saskatoon West CPC likely
161. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
162. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC likely
163. Malpeque CPC likely
164. North Island—Powell River CPC likely
165. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
166. Whitby CPC likely
167. Nepean CPC likely
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
169. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
170. Kings—Hants CPC likely
171. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
172. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
173. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
174. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
175. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely
176. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely
177. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely
178. Avalon CPC likely
179. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
180. Don Valley North CPC likely
181. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely
183. Egmont CPC likely
184. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely
185. Charlottetown CPC likely
186. Vancouver Granville CPC likely
187. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely
188. Labrador CPC likely
189. Calgary McKnight CPC likely
190. Brampton Centre CPC likely
191. Cardigan CPC likely
192. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely
193. Sudbury CPC likely
194. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC likely
195. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning
196. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning
197. Waterloo CPC leaning
198. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning
199. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning
200. Guelph CPC leaning
201. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning
202. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
203. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning
204. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
205. Don Valley West CPC leaning
206. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning
207. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
208. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning
209. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning
210. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning
211. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning
212. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning
213. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up CPC/NDP
214. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP
215. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ
216. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
217. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
218. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
219. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
220. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
221. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
222. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP
223. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC
224. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
225. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
226. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
227. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
228. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
229. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
230. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
231. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC
232. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC
233. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
234. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
235. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
236. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
237. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC
238. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC
239. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC
240. Etobicoke North LPC leaning
241. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning
242. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
243. Spadina—Harbourfront NDP leaning
244. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning
245. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning
246. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning
247. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP leaning
248. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
249. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning
250. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning
251. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning
252. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
253. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
254. Kitchener Centre GPC likely
255. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
256. Surrey Newton LPC likely
257. University—Rosedale Toss up LPC/NDP
258. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
259. Cape Spear LPC likely
260. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely
261. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
262. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
263. London—Fanshawe NDP likely
264. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
265. Beauséjour LPC likely
266. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning
267. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely