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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: November 17, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection41.9% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection214 [183-239]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.8 seat/% 214 [183-239] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 214 [183-239] November 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 7/11 NB 6/10 QC 11/78 ON 89/122 MB 8/14 SK 14/14 AB 36/37 BC 34/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 37.9% ▼ 41.9% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 45.9% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | November 17, 2024

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Majority 172 seats Min. 183 ▼ 214 ▼ Max. 239 ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 17, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Foothills CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
9. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
12. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
13. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
14. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
15. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
17. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
18. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
19. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
20. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
21. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
23. Beauce CPC safe >99%
24. Calgary Shephard CPC safe >99%
25. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
26. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
27. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
28. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
29. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
30. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
31. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
32. Parkland CPC safe >99%
33. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
34. Carleton CPC safe >99%
35. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
37. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
38. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
40. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
41. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
43. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
44. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
45. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe >99%
46. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
47. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
48. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
49. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe >99%
50. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
51. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
52. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
53. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
54. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
55. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
56. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
57. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
58. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
59. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
60. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
61. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe >99%
62. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe >99%
63. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe >99%
64. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
65. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
66. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
67. Oxford CPC safe >99%
68. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
69. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
70. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
71. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe >99%
72. Provencher CPC safe >99%
73. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe >99%
74. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
75. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
76. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe >99%
77. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
79. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
81. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
82. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe >99%
83. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe >99%
84. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
85. Regina—Wascana CPC safe >99%
86. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe >99%
87. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
88. Kelowna CPC safe >99%
89. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe >99%
90. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe >99%
91. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
92. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
93. Calgary Centre CPC safe >99%
94. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe >99%
95. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
96. Simcoe North CPC safe >99%
97. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
98. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
99. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
100. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe >99%
101. Bay of Quinte CPC safe >99%
102. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
103. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe >99%
104. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe >99%
105. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
106. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
107. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
108. Peterborough CPC safe >99%
109. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
110. Calgary Confederation CPC safe >99%
111. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
112. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe >99%
113. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe >99%
114. Niagara South CPC safe >99%
115. Essex CPC safe >99%
116. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
117. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
118. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe >99%
119. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
120. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe >99%
121. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe >99%
122. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe >99%
123. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
124. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe >99%
125. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe >99%
126. London West CPC safe >99%
127. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
128. Central Newfoundland CPC safe >99%
129. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe >99%
130. North Island—Powell River CPC likely >99%
131. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely >99%
132. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely >99%
133. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely >99%
134. Long Range Mountains CPC likely >99%
135. Winnipeg West CPC likely >99%
136. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely >99%
137. York Centre CPC likely >99%
138. Cambridge CPC likely >99%
139. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely >99%
140. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely >99%
141. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC likely >99%
142. Richmond East—Steveston CPC likely >99%
143. St. Catharines CPC likely 99%
144. Saskatoon West CPC likely 99%
145. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely 99%
146. Delta CPC likely 99%
147. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely 99%
148. Markham—Unionville CPC likely 99%
149. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 99%
150. Newmarket—Aurora CPC likely 99%
151. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely 99%
152. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely 99%
153. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely 99%
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely 99%
155. Kanata CPC likely 99%
156. Oakville East CPC likely 99%
157. Burlington CPC likely 98%
158. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely 98%
159. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely 98%
160. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 98%
161. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 97%
162. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 97%
163. Oakville West CPC likely 97%
164. Willowdale CPC likely 97%
165. Malpeque CPC likely 97%
166. Central Nova CPC likely 96%
167. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely 96%
168. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely 96%
169. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely 94%
170. Whitby CPC likely 94%
171. Sudbury CPC likely 93%
172. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 91%
173. Nepean CPC leaning 90%
174. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning 90%
175. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning 90%
176. Kings—Hants CPC leaning 89%
177. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning 89%
178. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning 88%
179. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning 88%
180. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 87%
181. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 86%
182. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 86%
183. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 86%
184. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning 84%
185. Labrador CPC leaning 84%
186. Egmont CPC leaning 82%
187. Avalon CPC leaning 82%
188. Charlottetown CPC leaning 80%
189. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning 80%
190. Don Valley North CPC leaning 79%
191. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning 79%
192. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning 77%
193. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning 72%
194. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 70%
195. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
196. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 66%
198. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 66%
199. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
200. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
201. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
202. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 59%
203. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 59%
204. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 59%
205. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
206. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 58%
207. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
208. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP 56%
209. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 56%
210. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
211. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 53%
212. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
213. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
214. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
215. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
216. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
217. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 46%
218. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
219. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 44%
220. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 42%
221. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
222. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
223. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
224. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
225. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
226. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
227. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 30%
228. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
229. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP leaning 26%
230. Winnipeg South Centre LPC leaning 26%
231. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 26%
232. Ottawa South LPC leaning 23%
233. Mount Royal LPC leaning 23%
234. Brampton South LPC leaning 22%
235. Brampton East LPC leaning 20%
236. Orléans LPC leaning 20%
237. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning 18%
238. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning 17%
239. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning 13%
240. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning 11%
241. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning 11%
242. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
243. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely 10%
244. Brampton West LPC likely 9%
245. Halifax West LPC likely 7%
246. London—Fanshawe NDP likely 7%
247. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely 7%
248. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely 7%
249. Ajax LPC likely 7%
250. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely 7%
251. Etobicoke North LPC likely 6%
252. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 6%
253. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely 4%
254. Kitchener Centre GPC likely 4%
255. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 3%
256. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely 2%
257. St. John’s East LPC leaning 2%
258. University—Rosedale LPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Bow River CPC safe
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe
6. Foothills CPC safe
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
8. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
9. Lakeland CPC safe
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
12. Huron—Bruce CPC safe
13. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
14. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
15. Brandon—Souris CPC safe
16. Red Deer CPC safe
17. Prince Albert CPC safe
18. Riding Mountain CPC safe
19. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
20. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
21. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe
23. Beauce CPC safe
24. Calgary Shephard CPC safe
25. York—Durham CPC safe
26. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
27. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
28. Lethbridge CPC safe
29. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
30. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
31. Thornhill CPC safe
32. Parkland CPC safe
33. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
34. Carleton CPC safe
35. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
36. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
37. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
38. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
40. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
41. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
43. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
44. Yellowhead CPC safe
45. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
46. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
47. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
48. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
49. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
50. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
51. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
52. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
53. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
54. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
55. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
56. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
57. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
58. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
59. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
60. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
61. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
62. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
63. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
64. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
65. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
66. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
67. Oxford CPC safe
68. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
69. Calgary East CPC safe
70. Middlesex—London CPC safe
71. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
72. Provencher CPC safe
73. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
74. King—Vaughan CPC safe
75. Fundy Royal CPC safe
76. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
77. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
79. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
81. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
82. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe
83. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
84. Saskatoon South CPC safe
85. Regina—Wascana CPC safe
86. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
87. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
88. Kelowna CPC safe
89. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
90. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
91. Niagara West CPC safe
92. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
93. Calgary Centre CPC safe
94. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
95. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
96. Simcoe North CPC safe
97. Edmonton West CPC safe
98. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
99. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
100. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
101. Bay of Quinte CPC safe
102. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
103. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
104. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
105. Calgary Skyview CPC safe
106. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
107. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
108. Peterborough CPC safe
109. Oshawa CPC safe
110. Calgary Confederation CPC safe
111. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
112. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
113. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
114. Niagara South CPC safe
115. Essex CPC safe
116. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
117. Saskatoon—University CPC safe
118. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
119. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
120. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
121. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
122. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
123. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
124. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
125. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe
126. London West CPC safe
127. Edmonton Manning CPC safe
128. Central Newfoundland CPC safe
129. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe
130. North Island—Powell River CPC likely
131. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely
132. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely
133. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely
134. Long Range Mountains CPC likely
135. Winnipeg West CPC likely
136. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely
137. York Centre CPC likely
138. Cambridge CPC likely
139. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
140. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
141. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC likely
142. Richmond East—Steveston CPC likely
143. St. Catharines CPC likely
144. Saskatoon West CPC likely
145. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely
146. Delta CPC likely
147. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely
148. Markham—Unionville CPC likely
149. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
150. Newmarket—Aurora CPC likely
151. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely
152. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely
153. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely
155. Kanata CPC likely
156. Oakville East CPC likely
157. Burlington CPC likely
158. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely
159. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely
160. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
161. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
162. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
163. Oakville West CPC likely
164. Willowdale CPC likely
165. Malpeque CPC likely
166. Central Nova CPC likely
167. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
168. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
169. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
170. Whitby CPC likely
171. Sudbury CPC likely
172. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
173. Nepean CPC leaning
174. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning
175. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning
176. Kings—Hants CPC leaning
177. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning
178. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
179. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning
180. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
181. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning
182. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
183. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
184. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
185. Labrador CPC leaning
186. Egmont CPC leaning
187. Avalon CPC leaning
188. Charlottetown CPC leaning
189. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
190. Don Valley North CPC leaning
191. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning
192. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
193. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
194. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
195. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
196. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
198. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
199. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
200. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
201. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
202. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP
203. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
204. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
205. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
206. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
207. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
208. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
209. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
210. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
211. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
212. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
213. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
214. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
215. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC
216. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
217. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
218. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
219. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
220. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
221. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC
222. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
223. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
224. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
225. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC
226. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
227. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
228. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
229. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP leaning
230. Winnipeg South Centre LPC leaning
231. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
232. Ottawa South LPC leaning
233. Mount Royal LPC leaning
234. Brampton South LPC leaning
235. Brampton East LPC leaning
236. Orléans LPC leaning
237. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
238. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning
239. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning
240. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning
241. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning
242. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
243. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely
244. Brampton West LPC likely
245. Halifax West LPC likely
246. London—Fanshawe NDP likely
247. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely
248. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely
249. Ajax LPC likely
250. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
251. Etobicoke North LPC likely
252. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
253. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
254. Kitchener Centre GPC likely
255. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
256. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
257. St. John’s East LPC leaning
258. University—Rosedale LPC likely