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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: November 2, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.7% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPs144
Current seat projection137 [102-170]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 2, 2025 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.9 seat/% 137 [102-170] 40% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × ✓ ✓ × × × × × ✓ × × × CPC 137 [102-170] November 2, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 53/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 17/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | November 2, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.1% ▼ 39.7% ± 3.6% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.3% ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 2, 2025

Seat projection | November 2, 2025

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 102 ▼ 137 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 170 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC November 2, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
8. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
33. Beauce CPC safe >99%
34. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
35. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
36. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
37. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
38. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
39. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
40. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
41. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
42. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
43. Essex CPC safe >99%
44. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
45. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
46. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
47. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
48. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
49. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
50. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
51. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
52. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
53. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
54. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
55. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
56. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely >99%
57. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
58. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely >99%
59. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely >99%
60. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely >99%
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely >99%
62. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
63. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely >99%
64. Oxford CPC likely >99%
65. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
66. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 99%
67. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 99%
68. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 99%
69. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 98%
70. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 98%
71. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 98%
72. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 98%
73. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 98%
74. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 98%
75. York Centre CPC likely 97%
76. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 97%
77. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 96%
78. Middlesex—London CPC likely 96%
79. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 95%
80. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 95%
81. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 95%
82. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 95%
83. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 94%
84. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 94%
85. Niagara West CPC likely 94%
86. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 93%
87. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 93%
88. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 92%
89. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 91%
90. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 91%
91. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 90%
92. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 90%
93. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 90%
94. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 89%
95. Edmonton West CPC leaning 88%
96. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 87%
97. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 86%
98. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 85%
99. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 84%
100. Oshawa CPC leaning 84%
101. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 83%
102. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 83%
103. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 82%
104. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 80%
105. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 80%
106. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 80%
107. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 79%
108. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 79%
109. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 79%
110. Niagara South CPC leaning 79%
111. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 79%
112. Simcoe North CPC leaning 77%
113. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 76%
114. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 75%
115. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 75%
116. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 75%
117. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 74%
118. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 74%
119. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 74%
120. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 73%
121. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 72%
122. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
123. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
124. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
125. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
126. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
127. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
128. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
129. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
130. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
131. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 63%
132. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
133. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
134. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
135. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 56%
136. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
137. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
138. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 48%
139. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
140. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
141. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
142. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
143. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
144. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
145. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 40%
146. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
147. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
148. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 35%
149. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
150. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
151. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
152. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 29%
153. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 29%
154. Kelowna LPC leaning 26%
155. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 25%
156. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 25%
157. Carleton LPC leaning 25%
158. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 24%
159. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 24%
160. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 23%
161. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 23%
162. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 22%
163. Oakville East LPC leaning 21%
164. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 19%
165. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 19%
166. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 18%
167. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 18%
168. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 16%
169. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 14%
170. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 14%
171. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 13%
172. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 13%
173. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 13%
174. Oakville West LPC leaning 13%
175. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 12%
176. Willowdale LPC leaning 11%
177. Whitby LPC leaning 11%
178. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 10%
179. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 9%
180. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 9%
181. Courtenay—Alberni NDP likely 9%
182. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 8%
183. Don Valley North LPC likely 8%
184. Labrador LPC likely 8%
185. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 7%
186. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 7%
187. Mount Royal LPC likely 7%
188. Etobicoke North LPC likely 6%
189. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 6%
190. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 5%
191. Egmont LPC likely 4%
192. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 4%
193. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 4%
194. Delta LPC likely 4%
195. St. Catharines LPC likely 4%
196. Yukon LPC likely 4%
197. Sudbury LPC likely 3%
198. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 3%
199. Peterborough LPC likely 2%
200. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 2%
201. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
202. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 1%
203. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
204. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 1%
205. Central Nova LPC likely 1%