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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: October 1, 2023

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection38.4% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's117
Current seat projection176 [142-209]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 170 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 8.9 seat/% 176 [142-209] 38% ± 4% 2019 2021 Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 176 [142-209] October 1, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 4/7 PEI 1/4 NS 6/11 NB 5/10 QC 10/78 ON 71/121 MB 7/14 SK 14/14 AB 32/34 BC 25/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 34.5% ▼ 38.4% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 42.2% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | October 1, 2023

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 119 seats Min. 142 ▼ Majority 170 seats 176 ▼ Max. 209 ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
8. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
9. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
11. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
15. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
17. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
21. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
22. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
23. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
25. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
28. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
29. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
30. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
31. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
32. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
33. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
34. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
35. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
36. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
37. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
38. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
39. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
40. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
41. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
42. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
43. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
44. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
45. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
46. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
47. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
48. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
49. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
50. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
51. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
52. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
53. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
54. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
55. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
56. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
57. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
58. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
59. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
60. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
61. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
62. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
63. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
64. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
65. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
66. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
67. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
68. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
69. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
71. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
72. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
73. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
74. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
75. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
76. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
77. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
78. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
79. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
80. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
81. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold >99%
82. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
83. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
84. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
85. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
86. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
87. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
88. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
89. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
90. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold >99%
91. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold >99%
92. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
93. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold >99%
94. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold >99%
95. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
96. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold >99%
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold >99%
98. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
99. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold >99%
100. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold >99%
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold >99%
102. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold >99%
103. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
104. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold >99%
105. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold >99%
106. Oshawa CPC safe hold >99%
107. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold >99%
108. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold >99%
109. Kenora CPC safe hold >99%
110. Essex CPC safe hold >99%
111. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold >99%
112. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold >99%
113. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 99%
114. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 99%
115. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain 99%
116. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 99%
117. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold 99%
118. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain 99%
119. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC likely hold 99%
120. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold 99%
121. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 98%
122. Sault Ste. Marie CPC likely gain 98%
123. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 97%
124. Cambridge CPC likely gain 96%
125. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain 96%
126. Niagara Centre CPC likely gain 95%
127. St. Catharines CPC likely gain 95%
128. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 95%
129. Kanata–Carleton CPC likely gain 95%
130. Sydney–Victoria CPC likely gain 94%
131. Fredericton CPC likely gain 93%
132. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC likely gain 92%
133. Markham–Unionville CPC likely gain 92%
134. Long Range Mountains CPC likely gain 91%
135. London West CPC likely gain 90%
136. Newmarket–Aurora CPC leaning gain 89%
137. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC leaning gain 89%
138. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain 89%
139. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC leaning gain 89%
140. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain 89%
141. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC leaning gain 88%
142. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC leaning gain 88%
143. Sudbury CPC leaning gain 87%
144. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain 87%
145. Richmond Centre CPC leaning gain 86%
146. Oakville CPC leaning gain 83%
147. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC leaning gain 81%
148. Oakville North–Burlington CPC leaning gain 80%
149. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC leaning gain 79%
150. Nickel Belt CPC leaning gain 79%
151. Burlington CPC leaning gain 79%
152. Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain 78%
153. Whitby CPC leaning gain 75%
154. Malpeque CPC leaning gain 74%
155. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain 74%
156. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 72%
157. York Centre CPC leaning gain 72%
158. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain 71%
159. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
160. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
161. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
162. Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
163. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
164. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
165. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
166. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
167. Cape Breton–Canso Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
168. Ottawa West–Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
169. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
170. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
171. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
172. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 52%
173. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 52%
174. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 51%
175. Central Nova Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
176. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
177. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
178. Etobicoke–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
179. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
180. Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
181. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
182. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
183. Markham–Stouffville Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
184. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 44%
185. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 44%
186. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
187. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
188. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
189. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
190. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 39%
191. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
192. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
193. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP 38%
194. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
195. Kings–Hants Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
196. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
197. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
198. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
199. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC leaning hold 29%
200. Orléans LPC leaning hold 26%
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 24%
202. North Vancouver LPC leaning hold 24%
203. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC leaning hold 23%
204. Vancouver Quadra LPC leaning hold 22%
205. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold 20%
206. Milton LPC leaning hold 19%
207. Ottawa South LPC leaning hold 17%
208. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning hold 17%
209. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold 14%
210. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 13%
211. Brampton South LPC likely hold 10%
212. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely hold 8%
213. Louis-Hébert LPC leaning hold 8%
214. Brampton North LPC likely hold 6%
215. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold 6%
216. Don Valley North LPC likely hold 5%
217. Jonquière BQ likely hold 4%
218. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold 4%
219. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely hold 4%
220. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold 4%
221. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 4%
222. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold 3%
223. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC likely hold 3%
224. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC likely hold 2%
225. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC likely hold 2%
226. Brampton West LPC likely hold 2%
227. Brampton East LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
3. Bow River CPC safe hold
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
8. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
9. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
11. Foothills CPC safe hold
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
15. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
17. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
21. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
22. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
23. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
25. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
28. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
29. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
30. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
31. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
32. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
33. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
34. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
35. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
36. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
37. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
38. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
39. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
40. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
41. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
42. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
43. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
44. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
45. Carleton CPC safe hold
46. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
47. Thornhill CPC safe hold
48. Beauce CPC safe hold
49. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
50. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
51. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
52. West Nova CPC safe hold
53. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
54. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
55. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
56. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
57. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
58. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
59. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
60. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
61. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
62. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
63. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
64. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
65. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
66. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
67. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
68. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
69. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
71. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
72. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
73. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
74. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
75. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
76. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
77. Niagara West CPC safe hold
78. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
79. Durham CPC safe hold
80. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
81. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold
82. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
83. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
84. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
85. Provencher CPC safe hold
86. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
87. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
88. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
89. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
90. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
91. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
92. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
93. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold
94. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
95. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
96. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
98. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold
99. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold
100. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold
102. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold
103. Oxford CPC safe hold
104. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold
105. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold
106. Oshawa CPC safe hold
107. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold
108. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold
109. Kenora CPC safe hold
110. Essex CPC safe hold
111. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold
112. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
113. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
114. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
115. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
116. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
117. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold
118. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
119. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC likely hold
120. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold
121. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
122. Sault Ste. Marie CPC likely gain
123. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
124. Cambridge CPC likely gain
125. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain
126. Niagara Centre CPC likely gain
127. St. Catharines CPC likely gain
128. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain
129. Kanata–Carleton CPC likely gain
130. Sydney–Victoria CPC likely gain
131. Fredericton CPC likely gain
132. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC likely gain
133. Markham–Unionville CPC likely gain
134. Long Range Mountains CPC likely gain
135. London West CPC likely gain
136. Newmarket–Aurora CPC leaning gain
137. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC leaning gain
138. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain
139. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC leaning gain
140. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain
141. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC leaning gain
142. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC leaning gain
143. Sudbury CPC leaning gain
144. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain
145. Richmond Centre CPC leaning gain
146. Oakville CPC leaning gain
147. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC leaning gain
148. Oakville North–Burlington CPC leaning gain
149. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC leaning gain
150. Nickel Belt CPC leaning gain
151. Burlington CPC leaning gain
152. Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain
153. Whitby CPC leaning gain
154. Malpeque CPC leaning gain
155. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
156. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
157. York Centre CPC leaning gain
158. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain
159. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
160. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
161. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
162. Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC
163. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
164. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
165. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
166. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC
167. Cape Breton–Canso Toss up LPC/CPC
168. Ottawa West–Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
169. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC
170. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC
171. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC
172. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
173. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
174. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
175. Central Nova Toss up LPC/CPC
176. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
177. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
178. Etobicoke–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
179. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC
180. Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC
181. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
182. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
183. Markham–Stouffville Toss up LPC/CPC
184. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
185. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
186. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
187. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
188. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
189. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up LPC/CPC
190. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
191. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC
192. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC
193. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
194. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
195. Kings–Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
196. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
197. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
198. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
199. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC leaning hold
200. Orléans LPC leaning hold
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
202. North Vancouver LPC leaning hold
203. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC leaning hold
204. Vancouver Quadra LPC leaning hold
205. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold
206. Milton LPC leaning hold
207. Ottawa South LPC leaning hold
208. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning hold
209. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
210. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
211. Brampton South LPC likely hold
212. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely hold
213. Louis-Hébert LPC leaning hold
214. Brampton North LPC likely hold
215. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold
216. Don Valley North LPC likely hold
217. Jonquière BQ likely hold
218. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
219. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely hold
220. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold
221. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
222. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
223. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC likely hold
224. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC likely hold
225. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC likely hold
226. Brampton West LPC likely hold
227. Brampton East LPC likely hold