Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: April 25, 2025
Leader | Pierre Poilievre |
National popular vote in 2021 | 33.7% |
Current vote projection | 38.4% ± 4.4% |
Current number of MPs | TBD |
Current seat projection | 125 [91-161] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.
Popular vote projection | April 25, 2025
Seat projection | April 25, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Transposed 2021 winner |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Ponoka—Didsbury | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
2. | Battle River—Crowfoot | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
3. | Grande Prairie | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
4. | Souris—Moose Mountain | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
5. | Bow River | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
6. | Peace River—Westlock | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
7. | Lakeland | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
8. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
9. | Foothills | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
10. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
11. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
12. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
13. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
14. | Yorkton—Melville | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
15. | Airdrie—Cochrane | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
16. | Parkland | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
17. | Yellowhead | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
18. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
19. | Red Deer | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
20. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
21. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
22. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
23. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
24. | Prince Albert | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
25. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
26. | Beauce | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
27. | Lethbridge | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
28. | Brandon—Souris | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
29. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
30. | Huron—Bruce | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
31. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
32. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
33. | Perth—Wellington | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
34. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
35. | Riding Mountain | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
36. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
37. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
38. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
39. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
40. | Essex | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
41. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
42. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
43. | Richmond—Arthabaska | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
44. | North Island—Powell River | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
45. | Lévis—Lotbinière | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
46. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
47. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
48. | Calgary Midnapore | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
49. | Portage—Lisgar | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
50. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
51. | Oxford | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
52. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
53. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
54. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
55. | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
56. | Calgary Shepard | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC safe | >99% |
57. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
58. | York—Durham | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
59. | Lanark—Frontenac | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
60. | Cariboo—Prince George | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
61. | Calgary Heritage | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
62. | Haldimand—Norfolk | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
63. | Regina—Lewvan | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
64. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | >99% |
65. | Courtenay—Alberni | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 99% |
66. | Tobique—Mactaquac | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 99% |
67. | Thornhill | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 99% |
68. | Dufferin—Caledon | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 99% |
69. | Provencher | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 98% |
70. | Simcoe—Grey | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 98% |
71. | Calgary Signal Hill | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 98% |
72. | Middlesex—London | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 98% |
73. | Fundy Royal | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 98% |
74. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 97% |
75. | Saskatoon—University | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 97% |
76. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 96% |
77. | Barrie South—Innisfil | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 96% |
78. | Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 96% |
79. | Chilliwack—Hope | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 96% |
80. | Wellington—Halton Hills North | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 96% |
81. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 95% |
82. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 95% |
83. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 94% |
84. | Saskatoon South | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 94% |
85. | Saint John—St. Croix | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 94% |
86. | Carleton | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 93% |
87. | Calgary East | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 93% |
88. | Oshawa | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 93% |
89. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 92% |
90. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 92% |
91. | Calgary Nose Hill | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 92% |
92. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 91% |
93. | Simcoe North | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC likely | 91% |
94. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 89% |
95. | Niagara West | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 88% |
96. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 88% |
97. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% |
98. | King—Vaughan | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 84% |
99. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 83% |
100. | Northumberland—Clarke | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 83% |
101. | Calgary Crowfoot | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 82% |
102. | Beauport—Limoilou | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 80% |
103. | Bowmanville—Oshawa North | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 79% |
104. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 79% |
105. | Cumberland—Colchester | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 78% |
106. | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna | ![]() |
![]() |
CPC leaning | 76% |
107. | South Shore—St. Margarets | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 70% |
108. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 68% |
109. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% |
110. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% |
111. | South Surrey—White Rock | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 66% |
112. | Regina—Wascana | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 65% |
113. | Edmonton West | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 63% |
114. | Central Newfoundland | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 62% |
115. | Edmonton Northwest | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 60% |
116. | Edmonton Riverbend | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 58% |
117. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up CPC/BQ | 57% |
118. | Acadie—Annapolis | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 56% |
119. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up CPC/NDP | 55% |
120. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up CPC/GPC | 53% |
121. | Kildonan—St. Paul | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 53% |
122. | Calgary Centre | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 52% |
123. | Kelowna | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 51% |
124. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 51% |
125. | Edmonton Gateway | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 50% |
126. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 48% |
127. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 48% |
128. | Calgary Confederation | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% |
129. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 46% |
130. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 44% |
131. | Abbotsford—South Langley | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 41% |
132. | Richmond Centre—Marpole | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 41% |
133. | Cloverdale—Langley City | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 40% |
134. | Peterborough | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 39% |
135. | Richmond East—Steveston | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 37% |
136. | Jonquière | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up CPC/BQ | 35% |
137. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 34% |
138. | Surrey Centre | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 34% |
139. | York Centre | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 34% |
140. | Long Range Mountains | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 33% |
141. | Oakville East | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 33% |
142. | Elmwood—Transcona | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up CPC/NDP | 32% |
143. | Niagara South | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 32% |
144. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 31% |
145. | Bay of Quinte | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 30% |
146. | Edmonton Southeast | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 29% |
147. | Brampton Centre | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 27% |
148. | Milton East—Halton Hills South | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 26% |
149. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 25% |
150. | Markham—Unionville | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 25% |
151. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 22% |
152. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 22% |
153. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 21% |
154. | Lac-Saint-Jean | ![]() |
![]() |
BQ leaning | 18% |
155. | Yukon | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 17% |
156. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 16% |
157. | Delta | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 15% |
158. | Brampton North—Caledon | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 15% |
159. | Burnaby Central | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 15% |
160. | Richmond Hill South | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 15% |
161. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | ![]() |
![]() |
BQ leaning | 12% |
162. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 11% |
163. | Calgary McKnight | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 10% |
164. | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 9% |
165. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
166. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/NDP | 8% |
167. | Oakville West | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
168. | Brampton East | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
169. | Sydney—Glace Bay | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
170. | Newmarket—Aurora | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
171. | Malpeque | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 8% |
172. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 7% |
173. | Drummond | ![]() |
![]() |
BQ likely | 7% |
174. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 7% |
175. | Brampton West | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 6% |
176. | Brampton South | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 6% |
177. | Fredericton—Oromocto | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 6% |
178. | Mississauga—Streetsville | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 5% |
179. | Kitchener—Conestoga | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 5% |
180. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | 5% |
181. | Burlington | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 5% |
182. | Eglinton—Lawrence | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 4% |
183. | Labrador | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 4% |
184. | Burlington North—Milton West | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 4% |
185. | Markham—Stouffville | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 4% |
186. | Louis-Hébert | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 2% |
187. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 2% |
188. | Egmont | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 2% |
189. | Cambridge | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 2% |
190. | Kanata | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 2% |
191. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/BQ | 1% |
192. | Whitby | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 1% |
193. | London West | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 1% |
194. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 1% |
195. | Charlottetown | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 1% |
196. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/NDP | 1% |
197. | Willowdale | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 1% |
198. | London—Fanshawe | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up LPC/NDP | 1% |