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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: April 25, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection38.4% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection125 [91-161]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 25, 2025 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 8.7 seat/% 125 [91-161] 38% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 125 [91-161] April 25, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 1/7 PEI 0/4 NS 3/11 NB 4/10 QC 12/78 ON 36/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 31/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 25, 2025

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 33.9% ▼ 38.4% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 42.8% ▼ Probabilities % CPC April 25, 2025

Seat projection | April 25, 2025

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 91 ▼ 2021 119 seats 125 ▼ Max. 161 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC April 25, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
4. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
5. Bow River CPC safe >99%
6. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
7. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
8. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
9. Foothills CPC safe >99%
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
13. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
14. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
15. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
16. Parkland CPC safe >99%
17. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
18. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
21. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
22. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
23. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
24. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
25. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
26. Beauce CPC safe >99%
27. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
28. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
29. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
30. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
33. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
34. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
35. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
36. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
37. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
38. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
39. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
40. Essex CPC safe >99%
41. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
42. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
43. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
44. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
45. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
46. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
47. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
48. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
49. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
50. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
51. Oxford CPC safe >99%
52. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
53. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
54. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
55. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
56. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
57. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely >99%
58. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
59. Lanark—Frontenac CPC likely >99%
60. Cariboo—Prince George CPC likely >99%
61. Calgary Heritage CPC likely >99%
62. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC likely >99%
63. Regina—Lewvan CPC likely >99%
64. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely >99%
65. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely 99%
66. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
67. Thornhill CPC likely 99%
68. Dufferin—Caledon CPC likely 99%
69. Provencher CPC likely 98%
70. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 98%
71. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 98%
72. Middlesex—London CPC likely 98%
73. Fundy Royal CPC likely 98%
74. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 97%
75. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 97%
76. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely 96%
77. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely 96%
78. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 96%
79. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely 96%
80. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 96%
81. Saskatoon West CPC likely 95%
82. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely 95%
83. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely 94%
84. Saskatoon South CPC likely 94%
85. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 94%
86. Carleton CPC likely 93%
87. Calgary East CPC likely 93%
88. Oshawa CPC likely 93%
89. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 92%
90. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 92%
91. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 92%
92. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 91%
93. Simcoe North CPC likely 91%
94. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC leaning 89%
95. Niagara West CPC leaning 88%
96. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 88%
97. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 86%
98. King—Vaughan CPC leaning 84%
99. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC leaning 83%
100. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 83%
101. Calgary Crowfoot CPC leaning 82%
102. Beauport—Limoilou CPC leaning 80%
103. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 79%
104. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC leaning 79%
105. Cumberland—Colchester CPC leaning 78%
106. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 76%
107. South Shore—St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
108. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 68%
109. Edmonton Manning Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
110. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
111. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
112. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
113. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
114. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
115. Edmonton Northwest Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
116. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
117. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 57%
118. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
119. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
120. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC 53%
121. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
122. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
123. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
124. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
125. Edmonton Gateway Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
126. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
127. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
128. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
129. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
130. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
131. Abbotsford—South Langley Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
132. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
133. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
134. Peterborough Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
135. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
136. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 35%
137. Langley Township—Fraser Heights Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
138. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
139. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
140. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
141. Oakville East Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
142. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 32%
143. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
144. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 31%
145. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
146. Edmonton Southeast LPC leaning 29%
147. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 27%
148. Milton East—Halton Hills South LPC leaning 26%
149. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 25%
150. Markham—Unionville LPC leaning 25%
151. Vaughan—Woodbridge LPC leaning 22%
152. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 22%
153. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC leaning 21%
154. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ leaning 18%
155. Yukon LPC leaning 17%
156. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 16%
157. Delta LPC leaning 15%
158. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 15%
159. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 15%
160. Richmond Hill South LPC leaning 15%
161. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ leaning 12%
162. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 11%
163. Calgary McKnight LPC leaning 10%
164. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC likely 9%
165. Kitchener South—Hespeler LPC likely 8%
166. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 8%
167. Oakville West LPC likely 8%
168. Brampton East LPC likely 8%
169. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 8%
170. Newmarket—Aurora LPC likely 8%
171. Malpeque LPC likely 8%
172. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely 7%
173. Drummond BQ likely 7%
174. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk LPC leaning 7%
175. Brampton West LPC likely 6%
176. Brampton South LPC likely 6%
177. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC likely 6%
178. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 5%
179. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC likely 5%
180. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely 5%
181. Burlington LPC likely 5%
182. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC likely 4%
183. Labrador LPC likely 4%
184. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 4%
185. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 4%
186. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 2%
187. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC likely 2%
188. Egmont LPC likely 2%
189. Cambridge LPC likely 2%
190. Kanata LPC likely 2%
191. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 1%
192. Whitby LPC likely 1%
193. London West LPC likely 1%
194. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC likely 1%
195. Charlottetown LPC likely 1%
196. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/NDP 1%
197. Willowdale LPC likely 1%
198. London—Fanshawe Toss up LPC/NDP 1%