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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: February 16, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection41.5% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection192 [150-223]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 8.2 seat/% 192 [150-223] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 192 [150-223] February 16, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 3/4 NS 7/11 NB 6/10 QC 13/78 ON 68/122 MB 9/14 SK 13/14 AB 36/37 BC 31/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 37.1% ▼ 41.5% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 45.9% ▼ Probabilities % CPC February 16, 2025

Seat projection | February 16, 2025

105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 119 seats Min. 150 ▼ Majority 172 seats 192 ▼ Max. 223 ▼ Probabilities % CPC February 16, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe >99%
4. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
5. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
6. Foothills CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
9. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
14. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
15. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
16. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
17. Parkland CPC safe >99%
18. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
19. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
20. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
21. Beauce CPC safe >99%
22. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
23. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
24. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
26. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
27. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
28. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
30. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
31. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
33. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
34. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
35. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
36. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
37. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
38. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
39. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
40. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
41. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
42. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
43. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
44. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
45. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
46. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
47. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
48. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
49. Carleton CPC safe >99%
50. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe >99%
51. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe >99%
52. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
53. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
54. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
55. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
56. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
57. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
58. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
59. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe >99%
60. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
61. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
62. Provencher CPC safe >99%
63. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
64. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe >99%
65. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
66. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
67. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
68. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
69. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
70. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
71. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe >99%
72. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
73. Oxford CPC safe >99%
74. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
75. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe >99%
76. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
77. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe >99%
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
79. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
80. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
81. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
82. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
83. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
84. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
85. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
86. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe >99%
87. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
88. Calgary Confederation CPC safe >99%
89. Kelowna CPC safe >99%
90. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
91. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe >99%
92. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
93. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
94. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
95. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe >99%
96. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe >99%
97. Essex CPC safe >99%
98. Simcoe North CPC safe >99%
99. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe >99%
100. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
101. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
102. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe >99%
103. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
104. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
105. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
106. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe >99%
107. Calgary Centre CPC safe >99%
108. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe >99%
109. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
110. Regina—Wascana CPC safe >99%
111. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
112. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
113. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
114. Peterborough CPC safe >99%
115. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe >99%
116. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe >99%
117. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
118. Bay of Quinte CPC safe >99%
119. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe >99%
120. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe >99%
121. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
122. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC likely >99%
123. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely >99%
124. South Surrey—White Rock CPC likely >99%
125. Niagara South CPC likely >99%
126. King—Vaughan CPC likely >99%
127. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 99%
128. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 99%
129. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 99%
130. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely 97%
131. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely 97%
132. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC likely 97%
133. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 96%
134. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC likely 96%
135. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 96%
136. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely 95%
137. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely 95%
138. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC likely 95%
139. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 94%
140. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC likely 94%
141. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely 92%
142. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely 91%
143. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC leaning 89%
144. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning 89%
145. Winnipeg West CPC leaning 87%
146. Richmond East—Steveston CPC leaning 87%
147. York Centre CPC leaning 87%
148. London West CPC leaning 87%
149. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning 86%
150. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC leaning 85%
151. Delta CPC leaning 85%
152. Malpeque CPC leaning 84%
153. Cambridge CPC leaning 84%
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC leaning 83%
155. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC leaning 81%
156. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 80%
157. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 80%
158. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC leaning 80%
159. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 78%
160. Central Nova CPC leaning 78%
161. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC leaning 78%
162. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 77%
163. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 76%
164. St. Catharines CPC leaning 76%
165. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC leaning 75%
166. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 73%
167. Oakville East CPC leaning 73%
168. Kanata Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
169. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 69%
170. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
171. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
172. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
173. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
174. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
175. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
176. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
177. Oakville West Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
178. Richmond Hill South Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
179. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 61%
180. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
181. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 61%
182. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
183. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
184. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
185. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
186. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
187. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
188. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
189. Burlington North—Milton West Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
190. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
191. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
192. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
193. North Vancouver—Capilano Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
194. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
195. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 44%
196. Burnaby North—Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
198. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
199. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 38%
200. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
201. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 37%
202. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
203. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
204. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
205. Pickering—Brooklin Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
206. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC 30%
207. Don Valley North LPC leaning 29%
208. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC leaning 27%
209. London Centre LPC leaning 24%
210. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 22%
211. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 20%
212. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC leaning 20%
213. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC leaning 18%
214. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning 17%
215. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC leaning 16%
216. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 16%
217. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 14%
218. Windsor West NDP leaning 13%
219. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning 12%
220. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC leaning 12%
221. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC leaning 12%
222. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 11%
223. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 10%
224. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC likely 10%
225. Waterloo LPC likely 10%
226. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely 10%
227. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 9%
228. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 9%
229. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 8%
230. Vancouver Centre LPC likely 8%
231. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely 8%
232. Winnipeg South LPC likely 6%
233. Don Valley West LPC likely 6%
234. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 5%
235. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 5%
236. Guelph LPC likely 5%
237. Surrey Centre LPC likely 4%
238. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely 4%
239. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely 3%
240. Brampton South LPC likely 3%
241. Victoria NDP likely 2%
242. Brampton East LPC likely 2%
243. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely 2%
244. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely 2%
245. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 2%
246. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 2%
247. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning 2%
248. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely 2%
249. Jonquière BQ likely 2%
250. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely 2%
251. Halifax West LPC likely 1%
252. Ottawa South LPC likely 1%
253. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely 1%
254. Nunavut NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Bow River CPC safe
4. Grande Prairie CPC safe
5. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
6. Foothills CPC safe
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
8. Lakeland CPC safe
9. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
13. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
14. Red Deer CPC safe
15. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
16. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
17. Parkland CPC safe
18. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
19. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
20. Lethbridge CPC safe
21. Beauce CPC safe
22. Brandon—Souris CPC safe
23. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
24. Prince Albert CPC safe
25. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
26. Yellowhead CPC safe
27. Riding Mountain CPC safe
28. Huron—Bruce CPC safe
29. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
30. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
31. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
33. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
34. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
35. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
36. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
37. Perth—Wellington CPC safe
38. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
39. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
40. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
41. York—Durham CPC safe
42. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
43. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
44. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
45. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
46. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
47. Thornhill CPC safe
48. Calgary East CPC safe
49. Carleton CPC safe
50. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
51. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
52. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
53. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
54. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
55. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
56. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
57. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
58. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
59. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
60. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
61. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
62. Provencher CPC safe
63. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
64. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
65. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
66. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
67. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
68. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
69. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
70. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
71. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
72. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
73. Oxford CPC safe
74. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
75. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
76. Edmonton West CPC safe
77. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
79. Fundy Royal CPC safe
80. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
81. Saskatoon South CPC safe
82. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
83. Middlesex—London CPC safe
84. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
85. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
86. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
87. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
88. Calgary Confederation CPC safe
89. Kelowna CPC safe
90. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
91. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
92. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
93. Edmonton Manning CPC safe
94. Niagara West CPC safe
95. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
96. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
97. Essex CPC safe
98. Simcoe North CPC safe
99. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
100. Oshawa CPC safe
101. Saskatoon—University CPC safe
102. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
103. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
104. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
105. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
106. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
107. Calgary Centre CPC safe
108. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
109. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
110. Regina—Wascana CPC safe
111. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
112. Calgary Skyview CPC safe
113. North Island—Powell River CPC safe
114. Peterborough CPC safe
115. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
116. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
117. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
118. Bay of Quinte CPC safe
119. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe
120. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
121. Saskatoon West CPC likely
122. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC likely
123. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
124. South Surrey—White Rock CPC likely
125. Niagara South CPC likely
126. King—Vaughan CPC likely
127. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely
128. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
129. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
130. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely
131. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely
132. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC likely
133. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely
134. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC likely
135. Central Newfoundland CPC likely
136. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
137. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
138. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC likely
139. Long Range Mountains CPC likely
140. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC likely
141. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely
142. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely
143. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC leaning
144. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning
145. Winnipeg West CPC leaning
146. Richmond East—Steveston CPC leaning
147. York Centre CPC leaning
148. London West CPC leaning
149. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning
150. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC leaning
151. Delta CPC leaning
152. Malpeque CPC leaning
153. Cambridge CPC leaning
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC leaning
155. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC leaning
156. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning
157. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning
158. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC leaning
159. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
160. Central Nova CPC leaning
161. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC leaning
162. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning
163. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
164. St. Catharines CPC leaning
165. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC leaning
166. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
167. Oakville East CPC leaning
168. Kanata Toss up LPC/CPC
169. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
170. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP
171. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC
172. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
173. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
174. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
175. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC
176. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC
177. Oakville West Toss up LPC/CPC
178. Richmond Hill South Toss up LPC/CPC
179. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
180. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC
181. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
182. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
183. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC
184. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
185. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
186. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP
187. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
188. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
189. Burlington North—Milton West Toss up LPC/CPC
190. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
191. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC
192. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC
193. North Vancouver—Capilano Toss up LPC/CPC
194. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
195. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
196. Burnaby North—Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC
198. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC
199. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP
200. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
201. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
202. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
203. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
204. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up CPC/NDP
205. Pickering—Brooklin Toss up LPC/CPC
206. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC
207. Don Valley North LPC leaning
208. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC leaning
209. London Centre LPC leaning
210. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning
211. Brampton Centre LPC leaning
212. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC leaning
213. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC leaning
214. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
215. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC leaning
216. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning
217. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning
218. Windsor West NDP leaning
219. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning
220. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC leaning
221. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC leaning
222. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
223. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning
224. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC likely
225. Waterloo LPC likely
226. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely
227. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
228. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
229. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely
230. Vancouver Centre LPC likely
231. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely
232. Winnipeg South LPC likely
233. Don Valley West LPC likely
234. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely
235. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely
236. Guelph LPC likely
237. Surrey Centre LPC likely
238. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely
239. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
240. Brampton South LPC likely
241. Victoria NDP likely
242. Brampton East LPC likely
243. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely
244. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely
245. Mississauga Centre LPC likely
246. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ
247. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning
248. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
249. Jonquière BQ likely
250. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely
251. Halifax West LPC likely
252. Ottawa South LPC likely
253. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely
254. Nunavut NDP likely