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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: January 19, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection45.0% ± 4.5%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection238 [205-259]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.0 seat/% 238 [205-259] 45% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 238 [205-259] January 19, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 9/11 NB 8/10 QC 16/78 ON 98/122 MB 10/14 SK 14/14 AB 36/37 BC 37/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025

35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 40.6% ▼ 45.0% ± 4.5% ▼ Max. 49.5% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | January 19, 2025

170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Majority 172 seats Min. 205 ▼ 238 ▼ Max. 259 ▼ Probabilities % CPC January 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe >99%
4. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
5. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
6. Foothills CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
14. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
15. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
18. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
19. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
20. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
21. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
23. Parkland CPC safe >99%
24. Beauce CPC safe >99%
25. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
26. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
27. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
28. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
29. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
30. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
31. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
33. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
34. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
35. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
36. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
37. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
38. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
39. Carleton CPC safe >99%
40. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
41. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
42. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
43. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
44. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe >99%
45. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
46. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
47. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe >99%
48. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
49. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
50. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
51. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe >99%
52. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
53. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
54. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
55. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
56. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
57. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
58. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe >99%
59. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
60. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
61. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
62. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe >99%
63. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
64. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
65. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe >99%
66. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
67. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe >99%
68. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
69. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
70. Provencher CPC safe >99%
71. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
72. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe >99%
73. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
74. Oxford CPC safe >99%
75. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
76. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe >99%
77. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe >99%
78. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
79. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
81. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe >99%
82. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
83. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
84. Kelowna CPC safe >99%
85. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe >99%
86. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
87. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
88. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe >99%
89. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
90. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe >99%
91. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
92. Regina—Wascana CPC safe >99%
93. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
94. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
95. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe >99%
96. Calgary Centre CPC safe >99%
97. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
98. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
99. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe >99%
100. Simcoe North CPC safe >99%
101. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
102. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
103. Bay of Quinte CPC safe >99%
104. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
106. Essex CPC safe >99%
107. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe >99%
108. Calgary Confederation CPC safe >99%
109. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe >99%
110. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
111. Peterborough CPC safe >99%
112. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
113. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe >99%
114. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
115. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe >99%
116. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe >99%
117. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe >99%
118. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe >99%
119. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe >99%
120. Niagara South CPC safe >99%
121. London West CPC safe >99%
122. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe >99%
123. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
124. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
125. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
126. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC safe >99%
127. Cambridge CPC safe >99%
128. Central Newfoundland CPC safe >99%
129. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
130. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe >99%
131. York Centre CPC safe >99%
132. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC safe >99%
133. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
134. Long Range Mountains CPC safe >99%
135. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe >99%
136. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC safe >99%
137. St. Catharines CPC safe >99%
138. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe >99%
139. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe >99%
140. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC safe >99%
141. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
142. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe >99%
143. Delta CPC safe >99%
144. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe >99%
145. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC safe >99%
146. Markham—Unionville CPC safe >99%
147. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe >99%
148. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
149. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe >99%
150. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC safe >99%
151. Oakville East CPC safe >99%
152. Kanata CPC safe >99%
153. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
154. Etobicoke Centre CPC safe >99%
155. Burlington CPC safe >99%
156. Winnipeg West CPC likely >99%
157. Central Nova CPC likely >99%
158. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
159. Edmonton Centre CPC likely >99%
160. Malpeque CPC likely >99%
161. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely >99%
162. Oakville West CPC likely >99%
163. Richmond Hill South CPC likely >99%
164. Willowdale CPC likely >99%
165. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely >99%
166. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely >99%
167. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely >99%
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely >99%
169. Kings—Hants CPC likely >99%
170. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely 99%
171. Whitby CPC likely 99%
172. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 99%
173. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely 99%
174. Nepean CPC likely 99%
175. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely 99%
176. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely 98%
177. Vancouver Granville CPC likely 98%
178. Avalon CPC likely 98%
179. Egmont CPC likely 98%
180. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely 98%
181. Charlottetown CPC likely 98%
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely 97%
183. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely 97%
184. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely 96%
185. Don Valley North CPC likely 96%
186. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely 96%
187. Labrador CPC likely 96%
188. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely 95%
189. Sudbury CPC likely 95%
190. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 95%
191. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely 95%
192. Cardigan CPC likely 95%
193. Calgary McKnight CPC likely 94%
194. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely 93%
195. Brampton Centre CPC likely 93%
196. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC likely 92%
197. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely 90%
198. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC leaning 90%
199. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning 90%
200. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 90%
201. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning 89%
202. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 89%
203. Waterloo CPC leaning 88%
204. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning 87%
205. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning 86%
206. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning 84%
207. Elmwood—Transcona CPC leaning 82%
208. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning 81%
209. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning 80%
210. Don Valley West CPC leaning 80%
211. Yukon CPC leaning 79%
212. Guelph CPC leaning 78%
213. Thunder Bay—Superior North CPC leaning 77%
214. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning 77%
215. London Centre CPC leaning 77%
216. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning 75%
217. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning 74%
218. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning 73%
219. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 71%
220. Burnaby Central CPC leaning 70%
221. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
222. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 63%
223. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
224. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
225. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 61%
226. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
227. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
228. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
229. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
230. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 55%
231. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
232. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
233. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC 53%
234. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
235. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP 53%
236. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
237. Pierrefonds—Dollard Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
238. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP 49%
239. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 47%
240. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
241. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
242. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
243. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up CPC/NDP 39%
244. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
245. Etobicoke North Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
246. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up CPC/NDP 31%
247. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
248. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
249. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning 30%
250. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning 28%
251. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 25%
252. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 25%
253. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning 23%
254. Cape Spear LPC leaning 22%
255. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning 20%
256. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 18%
257. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 15%
258. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 15%
259. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning 14%
260. Markham—Thornhill LPC leaning 14%
261. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning 11%
262. Scarborough—Woburn LPC leaning 11%
263. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Toss up LPC/NDP 10%
264. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely 8%
265. Beauséjour LPC likely 7%
266. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely 7%
267. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ 6%
268. University—Rosedale LPC leaning 5%
269. Québec Centre BQ likely 4%
270. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely 4%
271. Saint-Laurent LPC likely 3%
272. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 2%
273. Windsor West NDP likely 2%
274. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely 2%
275. Vimy LPC leaning 2%
276. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning 2%
277. Victoria NDP likely 2%
278. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely 2%
279. Jonquière BQ likely 1%
280. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 1%
281. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Bow River CPC safe
4. Grande Prairie CPC safe
5. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
6. Foothills CPC safe
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
8. Lakeland CPC safe
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
13. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
14. Huron—Bruce CPC safe
15. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
16. Red Deer CPC safe
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
18. Riding Mountain CPC safe
19. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
20. Prince Albert CPC safe
21. Brandon—Souris CPC safe
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
23. Parkland CPC safe
24. Beauce CPC safe
25. Perth—Wellington CPC safe
26. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
27. York—Durham CPC safe
28. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
29. Thornhill CPC safe
30. Lethbridge CPC safe
31. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
33. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
34. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
35. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
36. Yellowhead CPC safe
37. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
38. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
39. Carleton CPC safe
40. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
41. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
42. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
43. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
44. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
45. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
46. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
47. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
48. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
49. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
50. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
51. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
52. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
53. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
54. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
55. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
56. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
57. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
58. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
59. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
60. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
61. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
62. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
63. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
64. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
65. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
66. Calgary East CPC safe
67. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
68. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
69. King—Vaughan CPC safe
70. Provencher CPC safe
71. Fundy Royal CPC safe
72. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
73. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
74. Oxford CPC safe
75. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
76. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe
77. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
78. Middlesex—London CPC safe
79. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
80. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
81. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
82. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
83. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
84. Kelowna CPC safe
85. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
86. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
87. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
88. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
89. Niagara West CPC safe
90. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
91. Saskatoon South CPC safe
92. Regina—Wascana CPC safe
93. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
94. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
95. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
96. Calgary Centre CPC safe
97. Edmonton West CPC safe
98. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
99. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
100. Simcoe North CPC safe
101. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
102. Calgary Skyview CPC safe
103. Bay of Quinte CPC safe
104. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
106. Essex CPC safe
107. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
108. Calgary Confederation CPC safe
109. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
110. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
111. Peterborough CPC safe
112. Edmonton Manning CPC safe
113. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
114. Oshawa CPC safe
115. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
116. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
117. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
118. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
119. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
120. Niagara South CPC safe
121. London West CPC safe
122. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe
123. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
124. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
125. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
126. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC safe
127. Cambridge CPC safe
128. Central Newfoundland CPC safe
129. Saskatoon—University CPC safe
130. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
131. York Centre CPC safe
132. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC safe
133. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
134. Long Range Mountains CPC safe
135. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
136. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC safe
137. St. Catharines CPC safe
138. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe
139. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
140. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC safe
141. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
142. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
143. Delta CPC safe
144. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe
145. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC safe
146. Markham—Unionville CPC safe
147. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe
148. North Island—Powell River CPC safe
149. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe
150. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC safe
151. Oakville East CPC safe
152. Kanata CPC safe
153. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
154. Etobicoke Centre CPC safe
155. Burlington CPC safe
156. Winnipeg West CPC likely
157. Central Nova CPC likely
158. Saskatoon West CPC likely
159. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
160. Malpeque CPC likely
161. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
162. Oakville West CPC likely
163. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
164. Willowdale CPC likely
165. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
166. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
167. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
169. Kings—Hants CPC likely
170. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
171. Whitby CPC likely
172. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
173. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
174. Nepean CPC likely
175. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely
176. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
177. Vancouver Granville CPC likely
178. Avalon CPC likely
179. Egmont CPC likely
180. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely
181. Charlottetown CPC likely
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely
183. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely
184. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely
185. Don Valley North CPC likely
186. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely
187. Labrador CPC likely
188. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely
189. Sudbury CPC likely
190. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely
191. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely
192. Cardigan CPC likely
193. Calgary McKnight CPC likely
194. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely
195. Brampton Centre CPC likely
196. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC likely
197. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely
198. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC leaning
199. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning
200. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
201. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning
202. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
203. Waterloo CPC leaning
204. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
205. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning
206. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning
207. Elmwood—Transcona CPC leaning
208. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning
209. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning
210. Don Valley West CPC leaning
211. Yukon CPC leaning
212. Guelph CPC leaning
213. Thunder Bay—Superior North CPC leaning
214. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning
215. London Centre CPC leaning
216. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning
217. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning
218. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning
219. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
220. Burnaby Central CPC leaning
221. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
222. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
223. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
224. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
225. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
226. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC
227. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
228. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Toss up LPC/CPC
229. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
230. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
231. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
232. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
233. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC
234. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC
235. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
236. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC
237. Pierrefonds—Dollard Toss up LPC/CPC
238. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP
239. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
240. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
241. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
242. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
243. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up CPC/NDP
244. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC
245. Etobicoke North Toss up LPC/CPC
246. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up CPC/NDP
247. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC
248. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC
249. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning
250. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning
251. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
252. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
253. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning
254. Cape Spear LPC leaning
255. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning
256. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
257. Surrey Newton LPC leaning
258. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
259. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning
260. Markham—Thornhill LPC leaning
261. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning
262. Scarborough—Woburn LPC leaning
263. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Toss up LPC/NDP
264. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
265. Beauséjour LPC likely
266. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
267. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ
268. University—Rosedale LPC leaning
269. Québec Centre BQ likely
270. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely
271. Saint-Laurent LPC likely
272. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
273. Windsor West NDP likely
274. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
275. Vimy LPC leaning
276. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning
277. Victoria NDP likely
278. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely
279. Jonquière BQ likely
280. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
281. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely