Conservative Party of Canada

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada

Rank	Electoral districts	Province	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Souris–Moose Mountain			CPC safe hold	>99%
2.	Cypress Hills–Grasslands			CPC safe hold	>99%
3.	Battle River–Crowfoot			CPC safe hold	>99%
4.	Bow River			CPC safe hold	>99%
5.	Lakeland			CPC safe hold	>99%
6.	Fort McMurray–Cold Lake			CPC safe hold	>99%
7.	Yorkton–Melville			CPC safe hold	>99%
8.	Grande Prairie–Mackenzie			CPC safe hold	>99%
9.	Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek			CPC safe hold	>99%
10.	Foothills			CPC safe hold	>99%
11.	Red Deer–Lacombe			CPC safe hold	>99%
12.	Yellowhead			CPC safe hold	>99%
13.	Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner			CPC safe hold	>99%
14.	Red Deer–Mountain View			CPC safe hold	>99%
15.	Prince Albert			CPC safe hold	>99%
16.	Battlefords–Lloydminster			CPC safe hold	>99%
17.	Mégantic–L’Érable			CPC safe hold	>99%
18.	Sturgeon River–Parkland			CPC safe hold	>99%
19.	Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies			CPC safe hold	>99%
20.	Regina–Qu’Appelle			CPC safe hold	>99%
21.	Peace River–Westlock			CPC safe hold	>99%
22.	Calgary Shepard			CPC safe hold	>99%
23.	Calgary Midnapore			CPC safe hold	>99%
24.	Lévis–Lotbinière			CPC safe hold	>99%
25.	Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis			CPC safe hold	>99%
26.	Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup			CPC safe hold	>99%
27.	Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan			CPC safe hold	>99%
28.	Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier			CPC safe hold	>99%
29.	Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry			CPC safe hold	>99%
30.	Louis-Saint-Laurent			CPC safe hold	>99%
31.	Calgary Signal Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
32.	Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan			CPC safe hold	>99%
33.	Calgary Heritage			CPC safe hold	>99%
34.	Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa			CPC safe hold	>99%
35.	Banff–Airdrie			CPC safe hold	>99%
36.	Lethbridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
37.	Beauce			CPC safe hold	>99%
38.	Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock			CPC safe hold	>99%
39.	Wellington–Halton Hills			CPC safe hold	>99%
40.	Huron–Bruce			CPC safe hold	>99%
41.	Calgary Nose Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
42.	Edmonton–Wetaskiwin			CPC safe hold	>99%
43.	Tobique–Mactaquac			CPC safe hold	>99%
44.	Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman			CPC safe hold	>99%
45.	Cariboo–Prince George			CPC safe hold	>99%
46.	York–Simcoe			CPC safe hold	>99%
47.	Portage–Lisgar			CPC safe hold	>99%
48.	Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes			CPC safe hold	>99%
49.	New Brunswick Southwest			CPC safe hold	>99%
50.	Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound			CPC safe hold	>99%
51.	Elgin–Middlesex–London			CPC safe hold	>99%
52.	Haldimand–Norfolk			CPC safe hold	>99%
53.	Perth–Wellington			CPC safe hold	>99%
54.	Dufferin–Caledon			CPC safe hold	>99%
55.	Fundy Royal			CPC safe hold	>99%
56.	Lambton–Kent–Middlesex			CPC safe hold	>99%
57.	Simcoe–Grey			CPC safe hold	>99%
58.	Oxford			CPC safe hold	>99%
59.	Parry Sound–Muskoka			CPC safe hold	>99%
60.	North Okanagan–Shuswap			CPC safe hold	>99%
61.	Richmond–Arthabaska			CPC safe hold	>99%
62.	Brandon–Souris			CPC safe hold	>99%
63.	Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke			CPC safe hold	>99%
64.	Calgary Rocky Ridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
65.	Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston			CPC safe hold	>99%
66.	Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles			CPC safe hold	>99%
67.	Abbotsford			CPC safe hold	>99%
68.	Durham			CPC safe hold	>99%
69.	Sarnia–Lambton			CPC safe hold	>99%
70.	Provencher			CPC safe hold	>99%
71.	Barrie–Innisfil			CPC safe hold	>99%
72.	Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola			CPC safe hold	>99%
73.	Thornhill			CPC safe hold	>99%
74.	Carleton			CPC safe hold	>99%
75.	Niagara West			CPC safe hold	>99%
76.	Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte			CPC safe hold	>99%
77.	Simcoe North			CPC safe hold	>99%
78.	Chatham-Kent–Leamington			CPC safe hold	>99%
79.	Chilliwack–Hope			CPC safe hold	>99%
80.	West Nova			CPC safe hold	>99%
81.	Northumberland–Peterborough South			CPC safe hold	>99%
82.	Brantford–Brant			CPC safe hold	>99%
83.	Langley–Aldergrove			CPC safe hold	>99%
84.	Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon			CPC safe hold	>99%
85.	Kelowna–Lake Country			CPC safe hold	>99%
86.	Hastings–Lennox and Addington			CPC safe hold	>99%
87.	Regina–Wascana			CPC likely hold	99%
88.	Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo			CPC likely hold	99%
89.	Edmonton West			CPC likely hold	99%
90.	Edmonton Riverbend			CPC likely hold	99%
91.	Chicoutimi–Le Fjord			CPC likely hold	98%
92.	Cumberland–Colchester			CPC likely hold	98%
93.	Bay of Quinte			CPC likely hold	98%
94.	Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River			CPC likely hold	98%
95.	Niagara Falls			CPC likely hold	98%
96.	Calgary Centre			CPC likely hold	98%
97.	Flamborough–Glanbrook			CPC likely hold	97%
98.	Peterborough–Kawartha			CPC likely hold	97%
99.	Kildonan–St. Paul			CPC likely hold	96%
100.	St. Albert–Edmonton			CPC likely hold	96%
101.	King–Vaughan			CPC likely hold	95%
102.	Calgary Forest Lawn			CPC likely hold	94%
103.	Calgary Confederation			CPC likely hold	94%
104.	Kootenay–Columbia			CPC likely hold	91%
105.	Saskatoon–University			CPC likely hold	91%
106.	Saskatoon–Grasswood			CPC leaning hold	89%
107.	Regina–Lewvan			CPC leaning hold	84%
108.	Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge			CPC leaning hold	84%
109.	Sault Ste. Marie			CPC leaning gain	83%
110.	South Shore–St. Margarets			CPC leaning hold	81%
111.	Miramichi–Grand Lake			CPC leaning hold	81%
112.	Kitchener South–Hespeler			CPC leaning gain	80%
113.	Kitchener–Conestoga			CPC leaning gain	80%
114.	Oshawa			CPC leaning hold	79%
115.	Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley			CPC leaning hold	79%
116.	Kenora			CPC leaning hold	79%
117.	Trois-Rivières			CPC leaning gain	77%
118.	Saskatoon West			CPC leaning hold	77%
119.	Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame			CPC leaning hold	72%
120.	Newmarket–Aurora			Toss up LPC/CPC	66%
121.	Beauport–Limoilou			Toss up CPC/BQ	64%
122.	Kanata–Carleton			Toss up LPC/CPC	64%
123.	Essex			Toss up CPC/NDP	63%
124.	Markham–Unionville			Toss up LPC/CPC	62%
125.	Edmonton Manning			Toss up CPC/NDP	62%
126.	Mississauga–Lakeshore			Toss up LPC/CPC	61%
127.	Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	61%
128.	Vaughan–Woodbridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	61%
129.	Oakville			Toss up LPC/CPC	60%
130.	Cambridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	59%
131.	St. Catharines			Toss up LPC/CPC	58%
132.	South Surrey–White Rock			Toss up LPC/CPC	58%
133.	Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	48%
134.	Niagara Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	48%
135.	Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	47%
136.	Nipissing–Timiskaming			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	47%
137.	Whitby			Toss up LPC/CPC	47%
138.	Oakville North–Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	47%
139.	London West			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	46%
140.	Fredericton			Toss up LPC/CPC	46%
141.	Edmonton Mill Woods			Toss up LPC/CPC	43%
142.	York Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	42%
143.	Sydney–Victoria			Toss up LPC/CPC	41%
144.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix			Toss up CPC/BQ	38%
145.	North Island–Powell River			Toss up CPC/NDP	34%
146.	Pickering–Uxbridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	33%
147.	Nanaimo–Ladysmith			Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC	33%
148.	Long Range Mountains			Toss up LPC/CPC	32%
149.	Bonavista–Burin–Trinity			LPC leaning hold	30%
150.	Nepean			LPC leaning hold	26%
151.	Eglinton–Lawrence			LPC leaning hold	26%
152.	Glengarry–Prescott–Russell			LPC leaning hold	26%
153.	Richmond Centre			LPC leaning hold	23%
154.	Cloverdale–Langley City			LPC leaning hold	22%
155.	Etobicoke Centre			LPC leaning hold	21%
156.	Thunder Bay–Rainy River			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	21%
157.	South Okanagan–West Kootenay			NDP leaning hold	19%
158.	Skeena–Bulkley Valley			NDP leaning hold	19%
159.	Malpeque			LPC leaning hold	19%
160.	Port Moody–Coquitlam			NDP leaning hold	17%
161.	Mississauga–Streetsville			LPC leaning hold	16%
162.	Markham–Stouffville			LPC leaning hold	15%
163.	Hamilton East–Stoney Creek			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	12%
164.	West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country			LPC leaning hold	12%
165.	Sudbury			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	11%
166.	Brampton Centre			LPC leaning hold	11%
167.	Labrador			LPC leaning hold	11%
168.	Etobicoke–Lakeshore			LPC leaning hold	11%
169.	Jonquière			BQ leaning hold	10%
170.	Don Valley West			LPC likely hold	9%
171.	Nickel Belt			Toss up LPC/NDP	9%
172.	Yukon			LPC leaning hold	8%
173.	Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas			LPC likely hold	8%
174.	Willowdale			LPC likely hold	7%
175.	Cape Breton–Canso			LPC likely hold	7%
176.	Mississauga–Erin Mills			LPC likely hold	7%
177.	Calgary Skyview			LPC likely hold	7%
178.	London North Centre			Toss up LPC/NDP	7%
179.	Mississauga East–Cooksville			LPC likely hold	5%
180.	Egmont			LPC likely hold	4%
181.	Milton			LPC likely hold	4%
182.	Charlottetown			LPC likely hold	4%
183.	Ottawa West–Nepean			LPC likely hold	4%
184.	Louis-Hébert			LPC likely hold	3%
185.	Edmonton Centre			LPC leaning hold	3%
186.	Delta			LPC likely hold	3%
187.	Saint John–Rothesay			LPC likely hold	3%
188.	Waterloo			LPC likely hold	3%
189.	Steveston–Richmond East			LPC likely hold	3%
190.	Courtenay–Alberni			NDP likely hold	3%
191.	Central Nova			LPC likely hold	3%
192.	Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam			LPC likely hold	2%
193.	Windsor–Tecumseh			NDP leaning gain	2%
194.	Avalon			LPC likely hold	2%
195.	Brampton South			LPC likely hold	2%