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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: November 9, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.6% ± 3.5%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection138 [101-168]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 9, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 138 [101-168] 40% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × ✓ × × × × × × CPC 138 [101-168] November 9, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 10/78 ON 51/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | November 9, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.1% ▼ 39.6% ± 3.5% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.0% ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 9, 2025

Seat projection | November 9, 2025

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 101 ▼ 138 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 168 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC November 9, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
16. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
31. Beauce CPC safe >99%
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
33. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
34. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
35. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
36. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
37. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
38. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
39. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
40. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
41. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
42. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
43. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
44. Essex CPC safe >99%
45. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
46. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
47. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
48. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
49. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
50. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
51. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
52. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
53. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
54. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
55. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
56. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
57. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely >99%
58. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely >99%
59. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
60. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely >99%
62. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely >99%
63. Oxford CPC likely >99%
64. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely >99%
65. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 99%
66. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 99%
67. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 99%
68. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 99%
69. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 98%
70. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 98%
71. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 97%
72. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 97%
73. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 97%
74. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 97%
75. York Centre CPC likely 97%
76. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 96%
77. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 96%
78. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 96%
79. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 95%
80. Middlesex—London CPC likely 95%
81. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 94%
82. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 94%
83. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 94%
84. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 94%
85. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 93%
86. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 92%
87. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 92%
88. Niagara West CPC likely 92%
89. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 89%
90. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 89%
91. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 89%
92. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 88%
93. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 88%
94. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 88%
95. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 88%
96. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 86%
97. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 85%
98. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 84%
99. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 84%
100. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 84%
101. Edmonton West CPC leaning 83%
102. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 82%
103. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 82%
104. Oshawa CPC leaning 81%
105. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 81%
106. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 79%
107. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 78%
108. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 78%
109. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 78%
110. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 76%
111. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 76%
112. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 76%
113. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 75%
114. Niagara South CPC leaning 75%
115. Simcoe North CPC leaning 73%
116. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 72%
117. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 71%
118. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 71%
119. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
120. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
121. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 69%
122. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
123. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
124. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
125. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
126. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
127. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
128. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
129. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 59%
130. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
131. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
132. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
133. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
134. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 56%
135. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
136. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
137. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
138. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
139. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 48%
140. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
141. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
142. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
143. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
144. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
145. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
146. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 36%
147. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
148. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
149. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
150. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 30%
151. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 30%
152. Brampton East LPC leaning 29%
153. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 27%
154. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 26%
155. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 26%
156. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 25%
157. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 22%
158. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 22%
159. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 22%
160. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 21%
161. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 21%
162. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 20%
163. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 20%
164. Carleton LPC leaning 20%
165. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 18%
166. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 18%
167. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 18%
168. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 17%
169. Oakville East LPC leaning 17%
170. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 16%
171. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 16%
172. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 15%
173. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 12%
174. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 12%
175. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 12%
176. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 10%
177. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 9%
178. Oakville West LPC likely 9%
179. Labrador LPC likely 9%
180. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 9%
181. Mount Royal LPC likely 9%
182. Willowdale LPC likely 8%
183. Whitby LPC likely 8%
184. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 7%
185. Don Valley North LPC likely 5%
186. Delta LPC likely 5%
187. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
188. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 5%
189. Etobicoke North LPC likely 5%
190. Egmont LPC likely 5%
191. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 4%
192. Yukon LPC likely 4%
193. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 3%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 3%
195. St. Catharines LPC likely 2%
196. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
197. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 2%
198. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
199. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 2%
200. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
201. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
202. Central Nova LPC likely 1%
203. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%