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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: June 8, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection41.1% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs145
Current seat projection142 [100-181]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 8, 2025 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.5 seat/% 142 [100-181] 41% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ × ✓ × × × CPC 142 [100-181] June 8, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 1/11 NB 3/10 QC 11/78 ON 51/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | June 8, 2025

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.7% ▼ 41.1% ± 4.4% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 45.6% ▼ Probabilities % CPC June 8, 2025

Seat projection | June 8, 2025

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 100 ▼ 2021 119 seats 142 ▼ Majority 172 seats Max. 181 ▼ Probabilities % CPC June 8, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
8. Bow River CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
20. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
21. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
25. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
26. Provencher CPC safe >99%
27. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
28. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
33. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
34. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
35. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
36. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
37. Beauce CPC safe >99%
38. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
39. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
40. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
41. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
42. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
43. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
44. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
45. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
46. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
47. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
48. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
50. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
51. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
52. Essex CPC safe >99%
53. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
54. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
55. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely >99%
56. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely >99%
57. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely >99%
58. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely >99%
59. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely >99%
60. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely >99%
61. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely >99%
62. Edmonton Manning CPC likely >99%
63. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 99%
64. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 99%
65. York—Durham CPC likely 99%
66. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 99%
67. Oxford CPC likely 99%
68. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 99%
69. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 98%
70. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 98%
71. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 98%
72. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 98%
73. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 97%
74. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 97%
75. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 96%
76. Edmonton West CPC likely 96%
77. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 96%
78. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 96%
79. Fundy Royal CPC likely 95%
80. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 95%
81. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 95%
82. London—Fanshawe CPC likely 95%
83. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 95%
84. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 94%
85. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 94%
86. York Centre CPC likely 94%
87. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely 94%
88. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 93%
89. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 91%
90. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 91%
91. Middlesex—London CPC likely 91%
92. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 90%
93. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 90%
94. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 90%
95. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 89%
96. Windsor West CPC leaning 89%
97. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 89%
98. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 89%
99. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 89%
100. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 88%
101. Niagara West CPC leaning 87%
102. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 86%
103. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 86%
104. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 85%
105. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 85%
106. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 84%
107. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 83%
108. Elmwood—Transcona CPC leaning 83%
109. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 82%
110. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 82%
111. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 82%
112. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 82%
113. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 80%
114. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 79%
115. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 78%
116. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 78%
117. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 77%
118. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 77%
119. Oshawa CPC leaning 76%
120. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 73%
121. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 72%
122. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 70%
123. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 70%
124. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
125. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
126. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
127. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
128. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
129. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
130. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
131. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
132. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
133. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
134. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
135. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
136. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
137. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
138. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 54%
139. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
140. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
141. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 49%
142. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
143. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
144. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 47%
145. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
146. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
147. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
148. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
149. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
150. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
151. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
152. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
153. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
154. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
155. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
156. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
157. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
158. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
159. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
160. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
161. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
162. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 29%
163. Brampton East LPC leaning 28%
164. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 28%
165. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 26%
166. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 25%
167. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 23%
168. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
169. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 21%
170. Carleton LPC leaning 20%
171. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 20%
172. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 19%
173. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 18%
174. Oakville East LPC leaning 18%
175. Labrador LPC leaning 17%
176. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 16%
177. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 16%
178. Egmont LPC leaning 14%
179. Delta LPC leaning 14%
180. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 12%
181. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 11%
182. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC leaning 11%
183. Oakville West LPC leaning 10%
184. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 10%
185. Willowdale LPC likely 9%
186. Whitby LPC likely 9%
187. Central Nova LPC likely 8%
188. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 8%
189. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 6%
190. Don Valley North LPC likely 6%
191. Mount Royal LPC likely 6%
192. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 6%
193. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 6%
194. Etobicoke North LPC likely 5%
195. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
196. Yukon LPC likely 5%
197. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 4%
198. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 4%
199. St. Catharines LPC likely 3%
200. Jonquière BQ likely 3%
201. Sudbury LPC likely 3%
202. Winnipeg West LPC likely 3%
203. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 2%
204. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 2%
205. Peterborough LPC likely 2%
206. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 2%
207. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely 2%
208. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 1%
209. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
210. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 1%
211. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 1%
212. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 1%