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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: March 19, 2023

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection34.5% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's118
Current seat projection140 [114-174]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 19, 2023 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majority: 170 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 7.5 seat/% 140 [114-174] 34% ± 4% 2019 2021 Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | March 19, 2023

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30.3% ▼ 2021 33.7% 34.5% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 38.7% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | March 19, 2023

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 114 ▼ 2021 119 seats 140 ▼ Majority 170 seats Max. 174 ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
11. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
16. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
19. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
24. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
26. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
27. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
28. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
29. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
30. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
31. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
32. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
33. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
34. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
35. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
36. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
37. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
38. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
39. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
40. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
41. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
42. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
43. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
44. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
45. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
46. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
47. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
48. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
49. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
50. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
51. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
52. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
53. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
54. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
55. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
56. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
57. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
58. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
59. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
60. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
61. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
62. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
63. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
64. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
65. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
66. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
67. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
68. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
69. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
70. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
71. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
72. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
73. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
74. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
75. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
76. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
77. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
78. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
79. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
80. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
81. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
82. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
83. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
84. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
85. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
86. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
87. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
88. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold >99%
89. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
90. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
91. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
92. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
93. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold >99%
94. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold >99%
95. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold >99%
96. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold 99%
97. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC likely hold 99%
98. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold 99%
99. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold 99%
100. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold 99%
101. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold 99%
102. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold 99%
103. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold 97%
104. South Surrey–White Rock CPC likely hold 96%
105. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 94%
106. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold 93%
107. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 93%
108. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain 93%
109. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 93%
110. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain 92%
111. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold 91%
112. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold 90%
113. Kenora CPC leaning hold 89%
114. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold 89%
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold 88%
116. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold 85%
117. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold 85%
118. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain 85%
119. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain 84%
120. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold 83%
121. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain 83%
122. Oshawa CPC leaning hold 83%
123. Cambridge CPC leaning gain 81%
124. Richmond Centre CPC leaning gain 81%
125. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC leaning gain 80%
126. Essex CPC leaning hold 80%
127. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC leaning gain 79%
128. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold 79%
129. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC leaning gain 78%
130. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 75%
131. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain 71%
132. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
133. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
134. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 63%
135. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 62%
136. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
137. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 57%
138. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
139. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
140. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
141. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
142. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
143. Courtenay–Alberni Toss up CPC/NDP 42%
144. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
145. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
146. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
147. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
148. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
149. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
150. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
151. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 34%
153. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
154. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 31%
155. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 31%
156. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
157. Nepean LPC leaning hold 29%
158. York Centre LPC leaning hold 29%
159. Oakville LPC leaning hold 29%
160. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
161. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP leaning hold 26%
162. Burlington LPC leaning hold 25%
163. Richmond Hill LPC leaning hold 25%
164. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning hold 24%
165. Whitby LPC leaning hold 24%
166. Malpeque LPC leaning hold 23%
167. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
168. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 20%
169. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold 17%
170. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 16%
171. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold 16%
172. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold 15%
173. Trois-Rivières BQ leaning hold 13%
174. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 13%
175. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 13%
176. Labrador LPC leaning hold 13%
177. Waterloo LPC leaning hold 12%
178. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC leaning hold 12%
179. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
180. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning hold 11%
181. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold 8%
182. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold 6%
183. Egmont LPC likely hold 6%
184. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 6%
185. Beauport–Limoilou BQ likely hold 6%
186. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold 6%
187. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold 5%
188. Avalon LPC likely hold 5%
189. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 5%
190. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold 5%
191. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold 5%
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold 4%
193. North Vancouver LPC likely hold 4%
194. Willowdale LPC likely hold 4%
195. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
196. Guelph LPC likely hold 4%
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
198. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold 3%
199. Cardigan LPC likely hold 3%
200. Orléans LPC likely hold 3%
201. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 2%
202. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 2%
203. Louis-Hébert LPC leaning hold 2%
204. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely hold 2%
205. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold 2%
206. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold 2%
207. Ottawa South LPC likely hold 1%
208. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 1%
209. Milton LPC likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
4. Bow River CPC safe hold
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
10. Foothills CPC safe hold
11. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
16. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
19. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
24. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
26. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
27. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
28. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
29. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
30. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
31. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
32. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
33. Beauce CPC safe hold
34. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
35. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
36. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
37. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
38. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
39. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
40. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
41. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
42. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
43. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
44. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
45. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
46. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
47. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
48. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
49. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
50. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
51. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
52. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
53. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
54. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
55. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
56. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
57. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
58. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
59. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
60. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
61. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
62. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
63. Oxford CPC safe hold
64. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
65. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
66. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
67. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
68. Carleton CPC safe hold
69. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
70. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
71. Niagara West CPC safe hold
72. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
73. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
74. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
75. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
76. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
77. Provencher CPC safe hold
78. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
79. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
80. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
81. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
82. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
83. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
84. Durham CPC safe hold
85. West Nova CPC safe hold
86. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
87. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
88. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold
89. Thornhill CPC safe hold
90. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
91. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
92. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
93. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
94. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
95. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
96. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
97. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC likely hold
98. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
99. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold
100. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold
101. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold
102. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold
103. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold
104. South Surrey–White Rock CPC likely hold
105. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
106. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold
107. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
108. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
109. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
110. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
111. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold
112. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold
113. Kenora CPC leaning hold
114. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold
116. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold
117. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold
118. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain
119. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain
120. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold
121. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain
122. Oshawa CPC leaning hold
123. Cambridge CPC leaning gain
124. Richmond Centre CPC leaning gain
125. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC leaning gain
126. Essex CPC leaning hold
127. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC leaning gain
128. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold
129. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC leaning gain
130. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
131. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain
132. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
133. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
135. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
136. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
137. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
138. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
140. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC
141. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
142. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Courtenay–Alberni Toss up CPC/NDP
144. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC
146. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
151. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC
152. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
153. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC
154. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
155. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
156. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
157. Nepean LPC leaning hold
158. York Centre LPC leaning hold
159. Oakville LPC leaning hold
160. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
161. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP leaning hold
162. Burlington LPC leaning hold
163. Richmond Hill LPC leaning hold
164. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning hold
165. Whitby LPC leaning hold
166. Malpeque LPC leaning hold
167. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
168. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
169. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold
170. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
171. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold
172. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold
173. Trois-Rivières BQ leaning hold
174. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
175. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
176. Labrador LPC leaning hold
177. Waterloo LPC leaning hold
178. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC leaning hold
179. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
180. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning hold
181. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold
182. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold
183. Egmont LPC likely hold
184. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
185. Beauport–Limoilou BQ likely hold
186. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold
187. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold
188. Avalon LPC likely hold
189. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
190. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold
191. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold
193. North Vancouver LPC likely hold
194. Willowdale LPC likely hold
195. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP
196. Guelph LPC likely hold
197. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
198. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold
199. Cardigan LPC likely hold
200. Orléans LPC likely hold
201. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
202. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
203. Louis-Hébert LPC leaning hold
204. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely hold
205. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold
206. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
207. Ottawa South LPC likely hold
208. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
209. Milton LPC likely hold