Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Leader	Pierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 2025	41.3%
Current vote projection	36.4% ± 3.1%
Current number of MPs	141
Current seat projection	120 [79-145]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | March 1, 2026

Seat projection | March 1, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Souris—Moose Mountain Steven Bonk	C	CPC safe
2.	Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Jeremy Patzer	C	CPC safe
3.	Grande Prairie Chris Warkentin	C	CPC safe
4.	Lakeland Shannon Stubbs	C	CPC safe
5.	Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Laila Goodridge	C	CPC safe
6.	Battle River—Crowfoot Pierre Poilievre	C	CPC safe
7.	Bow River David Bexte	C	CPC safe
8.	Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Kelly Block	C	CPC safe
9.	Yorkton—Melville Cathay Wagantall	C	CPC safe
10.	Peace River—Westlock Arnold Viersen	C	CPC safe
11.	Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Rosemarie Falk	C	CPC safe
12.	Foothills John Barlow	C	CPC safe
13.	Ponoka—Didsbury Blaine Calkins	C	CPC safe
14.	Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Glen Motz	C	CPC safe
15.	Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Bob Zimmer	C	CPC safe
16.	Parkland Dane Lloyd	C	CPC safe
17.	Leduc—Wetaskiwin Mike Lake	C	CPC safe
18.	Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Fraser Tolmie	C	CPC safe
19.	Prince Albert Randy Hoback	C	CPC safe
20.	Red Deer Burton Bailey	C	CPC safe
21.	Portage—Lisgar Branden Leslie	C	CPC safe
22.	Airdrie—Cochrane Blake Richards	C	CPC safe
23.	Thornhill Melissa Lantsman	C	CPC safe
24.	Riding Mountain Dan Mazier	C	CPC safe
25.	Yellowhead William Stevenson	C	CPC safe
26.	Provencher Ted Falk	C	CPC safe
27.	Calgary Shepard Tom Kmiec	C	CPC safe
28.	Cariboo—Prince George Todd Doherty	C	CPC safe
29.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer	C	CPC safe
30.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis	C	CPC safe
31.	Brandon—Souris Grant Jackson	C	CPC safe
32.	Beauce Jason Groleau	C	CPC safe
33.	Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière Luc Berthold	C	CPC safe
34.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC safe
35.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie	C	CPC safe
36.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison	C	CPC safe
37.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC safe
38.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper	C	CPC safe
39.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan	C	CPC safe
40.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC likely
41.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis	C	CPC likely
42.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC likely
43.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC likely
44.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC likely
45.	Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC likely
46.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl	C	CPC likely
47.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC likely
48.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien	C	CPC likely
49.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin	C	CPC likely
50.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC likely
51.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon	C	CPC likely
52.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC likely
53.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde	C	CPC likely
54.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC likely
55.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas	C	CPC likely
56.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan	C	CPC likely
57.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC likely
58.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC likely
59.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	C	CPC likely
60.	Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC likely
61.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC likely
62.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold	C	CPC likely
63.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux	C	CPC likely
64.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC likely
65.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	CPC likely
66.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo	C	CPC likely
67.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie	C	CPC leaning
68.	Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	CPC leaning
69.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	CPC leaning
70.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill	C	CPC leaning
71.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	CPC leaning
72.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner	C	CPC leaning
73.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross	C	CPC leaning
74.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	CPC leaning
75.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore	C	CPC leaning
76.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC leaning
77.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell	C	CPC leaning
78.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta	C	CPC leaning
79.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn	C	CPC leaning
80.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC leaning
81.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC leaning
82.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	CPC leaning
83.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	CPC leaning
84.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	CPC leaning
85.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson	C	CPC leaning
86.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson	C	CPC leaning
87.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis	C	CPC leaning
88.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	CPC leaning
89.	Niagara West Dean Allison	C	CPC leaning
90.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas	C	CPC leaning
91.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small	C	CPC leaning
92.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	CPC leaning
93.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	CPC leaning
94.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
95.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
96.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
97.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
98.	York Centre Roman Baber	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
99.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
100.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
101.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
102.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
103.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
104.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
105.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
106.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
107.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
108.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
109.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
110.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
111.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
112.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
113.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
114.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
115.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
116.	Cambridge Connie Cody	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
117.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
118.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
119.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
120.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
121.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
122.	Niagara South Fred Davies	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
123.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
124.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
125.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
126.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
127.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
128.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
129.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
130.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
131.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
132.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	LPC leaning
133.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
134.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC leaning
135.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley	C	LPC leaning
136.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean	C	LPC leaning
137.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr	L	LPC leaning
138.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns	N	NDP leaning
139.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	LPC leaning
140.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	LPC leaning
141.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson	C	LPC leaning
142.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains	L	LPC leaning
143.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	LPC leaning
144.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	LPC leaning
145.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe	C	LPC leaning
146.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	LPC leaning
147.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	LPC leaning
148.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC leaning
149.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Richard Martel	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
150.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini	L	LPC leaning
151.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill	C	LPC leaning
152.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy	C	BQ leaning
153.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	LPC leaning
154.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	LPC likely
155.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	LPC likely
156.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	LPC likely
157.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen	L	LPC likely
158.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer	L	LPC likely
159.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai	L	LPC likely
160.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle	L	LPC likely
161.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal	L	LPC likely
162.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon	L	LPC likely
163.	Labrador Philip Earle	L	LPC likely
164.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC likely
165.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC likely
166.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC likely
167.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	LPC likely
168.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	LPC likely
169.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC likely
170.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC likely
171.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC likely
172.	Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC likely
173.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey	L	LPC likely
174.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC likely
175.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang	L	LPC likely
176.	Nunavut Lori Idlout	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
177.	Delta Jill McKnight	L	LPC likely
178.	Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC likely
179.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC likely
180.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC likely
181.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	LPC likely
182.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan	L	LPC likely
183.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste	L	LPC likely
184.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty	L	LPC likely
185.	Yukon Brendan Hanley	L	LPC likely
186.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC likely
187.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC likely
188.	Central Nova Sean Fraser	L	LPC likely
189.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC likely
190.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	LPC likely
191.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC likely
192.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC likely
193.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie	L	LPC leaning
194.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC likely
195.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC likely
196.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather	L	LPC likely
197.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC likely
198.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC safe
199.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC safe
200.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC safe
201.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC safe
202.	Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC safe
203.	Cardigan Kent McDonald	L	LPC safe
204.	Edmonton Strathcona Heather McPherson	N	NDP safe
205.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC safe
206.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC safe
207.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault	L	LPC safe
208.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski	L	LPC safe
209.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry	L	LPC safe
210.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson	L	LPC safe
211.	Jonquière Mario Simard	B	BQ likely
212.	Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC safe
213.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway	L	LPC safe
214.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald	L	LPC safe
215.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC safe
216.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC safe
217.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC safe
218.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May	G	GPC likely
219.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger	L	LPC safe
220.	London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC safe
221.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson	L	LPC safe
222.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC safe
223.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC safe
224.	Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe

Conservative Party of Canada

Infolettre Qc125

Vote projection | March 1, 2026

Seat projection | March 1, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada