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Last update: April 11, 2021
Leader | Erin O'Toole |
National popular vote in 2019 | 34.3% |
Current vote projection | 30.9% ± 4.2% |
Current number of MP's | 120 |
Current seat projection | 113 ± 28 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Souris–Moose Mountain | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
2. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
3. | Battle River–Crowfoot | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
4. | Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
5. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
6. | Bow River | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
7. | Lakeland | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
8. | Yorkton–Melville | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
9. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
10. | Yellowhead | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
11. | Foothills | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
12. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
13. | Peace River–Westlock | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
14. | Red Deer–Mountain View | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
15. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
16. | Red Deer–Lacombe | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
17. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
18. | Portage–Lisgar | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
19. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
20. | Prince Albert | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
21. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
22. | Calgary Shepard | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
23. | Calgary Midnapore | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
24. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
25. | Banff–Airdrie | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
26. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
27. | Calgary Heritage | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
28. | Calgary Signal Hill | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
29. | Provencher | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
30. | St. Albert–Edmonton | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
31. | Lethbridge | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
32. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
33. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
34. | Brandon–Souris | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
35. | Regina–Qu`Appelle | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
36. | Calgary Nose Hill | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
37. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
38. | Cariboo–Prince George | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
39. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
40. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
41. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
42. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
43. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
44. | Oxford | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
45. | Mégantic–L`Érable | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
46. | Lévis–Lotbinière | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
47. | Sarnia–Lambton | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
48. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
49. | Chilliwack–Hope | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
50. | Haldimand–Norfolk | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
51. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
52. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
53. | Abbotsford | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
54. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
55. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
56. | Richmond–Arthabaska | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
57. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
58. | York–Simcoe | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
59. | Perth–Wellington | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
60. | Wellington–Halton Hills | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
61. | Edmonton West | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
62. | Thornhill | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
63. | Tobique–Mactaquac | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
64. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
65. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
66. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
67. | New Brunswick Southwest | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
68. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
69. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
70. | Calgary Forest Lawn | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
71. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
72. | Huron–Bruce | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
73. | Barrie–Innisfil | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
74. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
CPC likely | 97% | |
75. | Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | ![]() |
CPC likely | 96% | |
76. | Langley–Aldergrove | ![]() |
CPC likely | 96% | |
77. | Durham | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
78. | Niagara West | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
79. | Fundy Royal | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
80. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
81. | Simcoe North | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
82. | Simcoe–Grey | ![]() |
CPC likely | 93% | |
83. | Edmonton Riverbend | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
84. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
85. | Carleton | ![]() |
CPC likely | 91% | |
86. | Regina–Wascana | ![]() |
CPC likely | 91% | |
87. | Calgary Confederation | ![]() |
CPC likely | 90% | |
88. | Richmond Centre | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 89% | |
89. | Brantford–Brant | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 89% | |
90. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 88% | |
91. | Markham–Unionville | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% | |
92. | Kootenay–Columbia | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% | |
93. | Dufferin–Caledon | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 85% | |
94. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 82% | |
95. | Kelowna–Lake Country | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 82% | |
96. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 80% | |
97. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 79% | |
98. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 78% | |
99. | Oshawa | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 78% | |
100. | Steveston–Richmond East | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 77% | |
101. | Beauce | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 77% | |
102. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 76% | |
103. | Calgary Centre | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 74% | |
104. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 71% | |
105. | Essex | ![]() |
Toss up | 68% | |
106. | South Surrey–White Rock | ![]() |
Toss up | 67% | |
107. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
Toss up | 66% | |
108. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | ![]() |
Toss up | 66% | |
109. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | ![]() |
![]() |
Toss up | 63% |
110. | Northumberland–Peterborough South | ![]() |
Toss up | 59% | |
111. | Kildonan–St. Paul | ![]() |
Toss up | 58% | |
112. | Niagara Falls | ![]() |
Toss up | 57% | |
113. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
Toss up | 53% | |
114. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | ![]() |
Toss up | 51% | |
115. | Kenora | ![]() |
Toss up | 50% | |
116. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
Toss up | 50% | |
117. | West Nova | ![]() |
Toss up | 50% | |
118. | Edmonton Mill Woods | ![]() |
Toss up | 43% | |
119. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
Toss up | 42% | |
120. | Richmond Hill | ![]() |
Toss up | 38% | |
121. | Cloverdale–Langley City | ![]() |
Toss up | 37% | |
122. | Kitchener–Conestoga | ![]() |
Toss up | 36% | |
123. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | ![]() |
Toss up | 32% | |
124. | King–Vaughan | ![]() |
Toss up | 32% | |
125. | Markham–Stouffville | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 29% | |
126. | Bay of Quinte | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 27% | |
127. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
Toss up | 26% | |
128. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix | ![]() |
BQ leaning | 26% | |
129. | Kitchener South–Hespeler | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC leaning | 22% |
130. | York Centre | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 20% | |
131. | Fredericton | ![]() |
Toss up | 19% | |
132. | Peterborough–Kawartha | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 17% | |
133. | Newmarket–Aurora | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 16% | |
134. | Niagara Centre | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 13% | |
135. | Kanata–Carleton | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 11% | |
136. | Oakville | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 11% | |
137. | Sault Ste. Marie | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 10% | |
138. | Beauport–Limoilou | ![]() |
Toss up | 10% | |
139. | Cumberland–Colchester | ![]() |
LPC likely | 8% | |
140. | Whitby | ![]() |
LPC likely | 7% | |
141. | St. Catharines | ![]() |
LPC likely | 5% | |
142. | Oakville North–Burlington | ![]() |
LPC likely | 5% | |
143. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | 5% |
144. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
Toss up | 5% | |
145. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | ![]() |
LPC likely | 4% | |
146. | Cambridge | ![]() |
LPC likely | 4% | |
147. | Central Nova | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
148. | Sydney–Victoria | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
149. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
150. | Jonquière | ![]() |
BQ likely | 3% | |
151. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
152. | Willowdale | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
153. | Cape Breton–Canso | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
154. | Scarborough–Agincourt | ![]() |
LPC likely | 2% | |
155. | Windsor–Tecumseh | ![]() |
Toss up | 2% | |
156. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | ![]() |
LPC likely | 2% | |
157. | Nepean | ![]() |
LPC likely | 2% | |
158. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | ![]() |
GPC leaning | 1% | |
159. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
160. | Egmont | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
161. | Burnaby South | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | 1% |
162. | North Island–Powell River | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | 1% |
163. | Don Valley North | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
164. | Milton | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
165. | Saint John–Rothesay | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
166. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
167. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | <1% |
168. | Burlington | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% |