338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: November 29, 2020

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 201934.3%
Current vote projection30.6% ± 4.0%
Current number of MP's121
Current seat projection111 ± 29



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe >99%
5. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
6. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
7. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
9. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
17. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
25. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
29. Provencher CPC safe >99%
30. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
31. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
32. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
33. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
34. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
35. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
36. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe >99%
37. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
38. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
39. Regina–Qu'Appelle CPC safe >99%
40. Mégantic–L'Érable CPC safe >99%
41. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
42. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
43. Oxford CPC safe >99%
44. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
45. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
46. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
47. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
48. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
49. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
50. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
51. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
52. York–Simcoe CPC safe >99%
53. Perth–Wellington CPC safe >99%
54. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe >99%
55. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
56. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
57. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
58. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
59. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 99%
60. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely 99%
61. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely 99%
62. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 99%
63. Abbotsford CPC likely 99%
64. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 99%
65. Durham CPC likely 99%
66. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 98%
67. Edmonton West CPC likely 98%
68. Niagara West CPC likely 98%
69. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely 98%
70. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 98%
71. Simcoe North CPC likely 98%
72. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 98%
73. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 97%
74. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 97%
75. Carleton CPC likely 97%
76. Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 97%
77. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely 97%
78. Brantford–Brant CPC likely 96%
79. Markham–Unionville CPC likely 94%
80. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 94%
81. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely 94%
82. Beauce CPC likely 93%
83. Fundy Royal CPC likely 93%
84. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely 91%
85. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely 91%
86. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 90%
87. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 89%
88. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 85%
89. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC leaning 85%
90. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 83%
91. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning 82%
92. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning 79%
93. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning 79%
94. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning 79%
95. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC leaning 78%
96. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning 76%
97. Oshawa CPC leaning 75%
98. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 75%
99. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 74%
100. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning 72%
101. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning 71%
102. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up 69%
103. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 69%
104. Regina–Wascana Toss up 67%
105. Richmond Centre Toss up 65%
106. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 60%
107. Richmond Hill Toss up 57%
108. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up 56%
109. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 54%
110. King–Vaughan Toss up 50%
111. Essex Toss up 47%
112. Markham–Stouffville Toss up 47%
113. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up 47%
114. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 46%
115. Bay of Quinte Toss up 43%
116. Kenora Toss up 42%
117. Saskatoon West Toss up 41%
118. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up 37%
119. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up 37%
120. York Centre Toss up 35%
121. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up 31%
122. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up 31%
123. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 29%
124. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning 25%
125. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 22%
126. Oakville LPC leaning 22%
127. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge LPC leaning 22%
128. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 22%
129. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning 20%
130. Niagara Centre Toss up 19%
131. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 18%
132. Trois-Rivières Toss up 17%
133. West Nova LPC leaning 17%
134. Whitby LPC leaning 16%
135. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning 12%
136. South Surrey–White Rock LPC leaning 12%
137. St. Catharines LPC leaning 12%
138. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 10%
139. Kootenay–Columbia NDP likely 10%
140. Cambridge LPC likely 8%
141. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 8%
142. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 7%
143. Willowdale LPC likely 7%
144. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 6%
145. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 6%
146. Fredericton Toss up 6%
147. Nepean LPC likely 5%
148. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 4%
149. Don Valley North LPC likely 4%
150. Milton LPC likely 4%
151. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely 3%
152. Central Nova LPC likely 3%
153. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 3%
154. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 3%
155. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 2%
156. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 2%
157. Burlington LPC likely 2%
158. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 2%
159. Jonquière BQ likely 2%
160. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 2%
161. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 1%
162. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely 1%
163. Egmont LPC likely 1%
164. London West LPC likely <1%
165. Kitchener Centre LPC likely <1%
166. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely <1%
167. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely <1%
168. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
4. Bow River CPC safe
5. Lakeland CPC safe
6. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
7. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
9. Yellowhead CPC safe
10. Foothills CPC safe
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
12. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
15. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
17. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
21. Prince Albert CPC safe
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
25. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
29. Provencher CPC safe
30. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
31. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
32. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
33. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
34. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
35. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
36. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe
37. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
38. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
39. Regina–Qu'Appelle CPC safe
40. Mégantic–L'Érable CPC safe
41. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
42. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
43. Oxford CPC safe
44. Lethbridge CPC safe
45. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
46. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
47. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
48. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
49. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
50. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe
51. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
52. York–Simcoe CPC safe
53. Perth–Wellington CPC safe
54. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe
55. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
56. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
57. Thornhill CPC safe
58. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe
59. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
60. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely
61. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely
62. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
63. Abbotsford CPC likely
64. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
65. Durham CPC likely
66. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
67. Edmonton West CPC likely
68. Niagara West CPC likely
69. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely
70. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
71. Simcoe North CPC likely
72. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
73. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
74. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
75. Carleton CPC likely
76. Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
77. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely
78. Brantford–Brant CPC likely
79. Markham–Unionville CPC likely
80. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
81. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely
82. Beauce CPC likely
83. Fundy Royal CPC likely
84. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely
85. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely
86. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning
87. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
88. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning
89. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC leaning
90. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
91. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning
92. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning
93. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning
94. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning
95. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC leaning
96. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning
97. Oshawa CPC leaning
98. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
99. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
100. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning
101. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning
102. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up
103. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
104. Regina–Wascana Toss up
105. Richmond Centre Toss up
106. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
107. Richmond Hill Toss up
108. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up
109. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
110. King–Vaughan Toss up
111. Essex Toss up
112. Markham–Stouffville Toss up
113. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up
114. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
115. Bay of Quinte Toss up
116. Kenora Toss up
117. Saskatoon West Toss up
118. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up
119. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up
120. York Centre Toss up
121. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up
122. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up
123. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
124. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning
125. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
126. Oakville LPC leaning
127. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge LPC leaning
128. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
129. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning
130. Niagara Centre Toss up
131. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
132. Trois-Rivières Toss up
133. West Nova LPC leaning
134. Whitby LPC leaning
135. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning
136. South Surrey–White Rock LPC leaning
137. St. Catharines LPC leaning
138. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
139. Kootenay–Columbia NDP likely
140. Cambridge LPC likely
141. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
142. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
143. Willowdale LPC likely
144. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
145. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
146. Fredericton Toss up
147. Nepean LPC likely
148. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
149. Don Valley North LPC likely
150. Milton LPC likely
151. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely
152. Central Nova LPC likely
153. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
154. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
155. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
156. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
157. Burlington LPC likely
158. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
159. Jonquière BQ likely
160. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
161. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
162. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely
163. Egmont LPC likely
164. London West LPC likely
165. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
166. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely
167. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
168. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely