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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: November 30, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.9% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection142 [103-177]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 30, 2025 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.0 seat/% 142 [103-177] 40% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × ✓ × × × × × × ✓ × ✓ ✓ CPC 142 [103-177] November 30, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 10/78 ON 53/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 21/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | November 30, 2025

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.0% ▼ 39.9% ± 3.9% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.7% ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 30, 2025

Seat projection | November 30, 2025

55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 103 ▼ 142 ▼ 2021 144 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 177 ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 30, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
22. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
23. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
29. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
30. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
31. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
32. Beauce CPC safe >99%
33. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
34. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
35. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
36. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
37. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
38. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
39. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
40. Essex CPC safe >99%
41. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
42. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
43. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
44. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
45. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
46. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
47. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
48. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
50. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
51. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
52. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
53. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
54. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
55. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely >99%
56. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
57. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely >99%
58. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely >99%
59. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
60. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely >99%
61. Oxford CPC likely >99%
62. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 99%
63. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 99%
64. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 99%
65. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
66. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 99%
67. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 99%
68. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 99%
69. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 99%
70. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 98%
71. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 98%
72. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 98%
73. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 98%
74. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 97%
75. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 97%
76. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 97%
77. York Centre CPC likely 97%
78. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 97%
79. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 96%
80. Middlesex—London CPC likely 95%
81. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 95%
82. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 95%
83. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 95%
84. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 95%
85. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 95%
86. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 94%
87. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 94%
88. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 94%
89. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 93%
90. Niagara West CPC likely 93%
91. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 92%
92. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 91%
93. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 90%
94. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 89%
95. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 89%
96. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 88%
97. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 88%
98. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 87%
99. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 87%
100. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 86%
101. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 85%
102. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 84%
103. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 84%
104. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 84%
105. Oshawa CPC leaning 84%
106. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 83%
107. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 82%
108. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 81%
109. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 81%
110. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 80%
111. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 79%
112. Niagara South CPC leaning 79%
113. Simcoe North CPC leaning 78%
114. Edmonton West CPC leaning 77%
115. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 76%
116. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 76%
117. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 75%
118. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 74%
119. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 74%
120. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 74%
121. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 73%
122. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 72%
123. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
124. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
125. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
126. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
127. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
128. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
129. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
130. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
131. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 57%
132. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
133. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
134. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
135. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
136. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 54%
137. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
138. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
139. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
140. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
141. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
142. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
143. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
144. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
145. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
146. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 46%
147. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
148. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
149. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
150. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
151. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
152. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
153. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
154. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
155. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
156. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
157. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 33%
158. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
159. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
160. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
161. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 29%
162. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 28%
163. Carleton LPC leaning 27%
164. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 27%
165. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 27%
166. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 26%
167. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 25%
168. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 24%
169. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 24%
170. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 24%
171. Oakville East LPC leaning 23%
172. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 23%
173. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 21%
174. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 19%
175. Delta LPC leaning 17%
176. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 15%
177. Oakville West LPC leaning 14%
178. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 14%
179. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 14%
180. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 13%
181. Willowdale LPC leaning 13%
182. Whitby LPC leaning 13%
183. Mount Royal LPC leaning 11%
184. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning 11%
185. Labrador LPC likely 9%
186. Don Valley North LPC likely 9%
187. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 8%
188. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 7%
189. Etobicoke North LPC likely 7%
190. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 7%
191. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 6%
192. Egmont LPC likely 5%
193. St. Catharines LPC likely 5%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 5%
195. Yukon LPC likely 4%
196. Sudbury LPC likely 4%
197. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 3%
198. Peterborough LPC likely 3%
199. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 3%
200. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 2%
201. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 2%
202. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 2%
203. Central Nova LPC likely 2%
204. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 1%
205. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
206. Burlington LPC likely 1%
207. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 1%
208. Jonquière BQ likely 1%