Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: January 11, 2026

Leader	Pierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 2025	41.3%
Current vote projection	38.4% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPs	142
Current seat projection	145 [110-178]

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Vote projection | January 11, 2026

Seat projection | January 11, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs		Current party	Projection
1.	Souris—Moose Mountain Steven Bonk		C	CPC safe
2.	Grande Prairie Chris Warkentin		C	CPC safe
3.	Lakeland Shannon Stubbs		C	CPC safe
4.	Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Jeremy Patzer		C	CPC safe
5.	Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Laila Goodridge		C	CPC safe
6.	Bow River David Bexte		C	CPC safe
7.	Battle River—Crowfoot Pierre Poilievre		C	CPC safe
8.	Peace River—Westlock Arnold Viersen		C	CPC safe
9.	Foothills John Barlow		C	CPC safe
10.	Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Glen Motz		C	CPC safe
11.	Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Kelly Block		C	CPC safe
12.	Yorkton—Melville Cathay Wagantall		C	CPC safe
13.	Parkland Dane Lloyd		C	CPC safe
14.	Ponoka—Didsbury Blaine Calkins		C	CPC safe
15.	Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Rosemarie Falk		C	CPC safe
16.	Leduc—Wetaskiwin Mike Lake		C	CPC safe
17.	Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Bob Zimmer		C	CPC safe
18.	Red Deer Burton Bailey		C	CPC safe
19.	Airdrie—Cochrane Blake Richards		C	CPC safe
20.	Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Fraser Tolmie		C	CPC safe
21.	Yellowhead William Stevenson		C	CPC safe
22.	Prince Albert Randy Hoback		C	CPC safe
23.	Portage—Lisgar Branden Leslie		C	CPC safe
24.	Calgary Shepard Tom Kmiec		C	CPC safe
25.	Thornhill Melissa Lantsman		C	CPC safe
26.	Riding Mountain Dan Mazier		C	CPC safe
27.	Provencher Ted Falk		C	CPC safe
28.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis		C	CPC safe
29.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie		C	CPC safe
30.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper		C	CPC safe
31.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer		C	CPC safe
32.	Cariboo—Prince George Todd Doherty		C	CPC safe
33.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts		C	CPC safe
34.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback		C	CPC safe
35.	Brandon—Souris Grant Jackson		C	CPC safe
36.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan		C	CPC safe
37.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp		C	CPC safe
38.	Beauce Jason Groleau		C	CPC safe
39.	Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière Luc Berthold		C	CPC safe
40.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison		C	CPC safe
41.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC safe
42.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon		C	CPC safe
43.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas		C	CPC safe
44.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan		C	CPC safe
45.	Essex Chris Lewis		C	CPC safe
46.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis		C	CPC safe
47.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl		C	CPC safe
48.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin		C	CPC safe
49.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson		C	CPC safe
50.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis		C	CPC safe
51.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard		C	CPC safe
52.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp		C	CPC safe
53.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien		C	CPC safe
54.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant		C	CPC safe
55.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie		C	CPC safe
56.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale		C	CPC safe
57.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin		C	CPC safe
58.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner		C	CPC safe
59.	Oxford Arpan Khanna		C	CPC likely
60.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle		C	CPC likely
61.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC likely
62.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde		C	CPC likely
63.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan		C	CPC likely
64.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu		C	CPC likely
65.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold		C	CPC likely
66.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman		C	CPC likely
67.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore		C	CPC likely
68.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff		C	CPC likely
69.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux		C	CPC likely
70.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo		C	CPC likely
71.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif		C	CPC likely
72.	Perth—Wellington John Nater		C	CPC likely
73.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill		C	CPC likely
74.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson		C	CPC likely
75.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb		C	CPC likely
76.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock		C	CPC likely
77.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill		C	CPC likely
78.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis		C	CPC likely
79.	York Centre Roman Baber		C	CPC likely
80.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis		C	CPC likely
81.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small		C	CPC likely
82.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo		C	CPC likely
83.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood		C	CPC likely
84.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta		C	CPC likely
85.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin		C	CPC likely
86.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison		C	CPC likely
87.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys		C	CPC likely
88.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette		C	CPC likely
89.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell		C	CPC likely
90.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson		C	CPC likely
91.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz		C	CPC likely
92.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall		C	CPC likely
93.	Niagara West Dean Allison		C	CPC likely
94.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal		C	CPC likely
95.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal		C	CPC likely
96.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey		C	CPC likely
97.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas		C	CPC likely
98.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho		C	CPC likely
99.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley		C	CPC likely
100.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton		C	CPC likely
101.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger		C	CPC likely
102.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley		C	CPC likely
103.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong		C	CPC likely
104.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett		C	CPC leaning
105.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au		C	CPC leaning
106.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland		C	CPC leaning
107.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid		C	CPC leaning
108.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani		C	CPC leaning
109.	Niagara South Fred Davies		C	CPC leaning
110.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus		C	CPC leaning
111.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli		C	CPC leaning
112.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers		C	CPC leaning
113.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena		C	CPC leaning
114.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]		L	CPC leaning
115.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence		C	CPC leaning
116.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh		C	CPC leaning
117.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton		C	CPC leaning
118.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean		C	CPC leaning
119.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen		C	CPC leaning
120.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor		C	CPC leaning
121.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc		C	CPC leaning
122.	Cambridge Connie Cody		C	CPC leaning
123.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux		C	CPC leaning
124.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley		C	CPC leaning
125.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss		C	CPC leaning
126.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill		C	CPC leaning
127.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson		C	CPC leaning
128.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
129.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
130.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
131.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
132.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
133.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
134.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
135.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
136.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
137.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
138.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
139.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
140.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
141.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
142.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
143.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
144.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
145.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
146.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
147.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
148.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
149.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
150.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
151.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
152.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
153.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
154.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
155.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
156.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
157.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
158.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
159.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
160.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
161.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
162.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
163.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
164.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
165.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
166.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette		L	LPC leaning
167.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek		L	LPC leaning
168.	Labrador Philip Earle		L	LPC leaning
169.	Oakville East Anita Anand		L	LPC leaning
170.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey		L	LPC leaning
171.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez		L	LPC leaning
172.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble		C	NDP leaning
173.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste		L	LPC leaning
174.	Delta Jill McKnight		L	LPC leaning
175.	Central Nova Sean Fraser		L	LPC leaning
176.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa		L	LPC leaning
177.	Oakville West Sima Acan		L	LPC leaning
178.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden		L	LPC leaning
179.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi		L	LPC leaning
180.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull		L	LPC leaning
181.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker		L	LPC leaning
182.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi		L	LPC leaning
183.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer		L	LPC leaning
184.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip		L	LPC likely
185.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli		L	LPC likely
186.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud		L	LPC likely
187.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Richard Martel		C	BQ leaning
188.	Yukon Brendan Hanley		L	LPC likely
189.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder		C	GPC likely
190.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry		L	LPC likely
191.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson		L	LPC likely
192.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle		L	LPC likely
193.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty		L	LPC likely
194.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski		L	LPC likely
195.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe		L	LPC likely
196.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan		L	LPC likely
197.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault		L	LPC likely
198.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky		L	NDP likely
199.	Peterborough Emma Harrison		L	LPC likely
200.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen		L	LPC likely
201.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy		C	BQ likely
202.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather		L	LPC likely
203.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli		L	LPC likely
204.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana		L	NDP leaning
205.	Cardigan Kent McDonald		L	LPC likely
206.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson		L	LPC likely
207.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway		L	LPC likely
208.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid		L	LPC likely
209.	Burlington Karina Gould		L	LPC likely
210.	Nunavut Lori Idlout		N	NDP leaning
211.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie		L	Toss up LPC/BQ
212.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald		L	LPC likely
213.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns		N	NDP likely
214.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie		L	LPC likely
215.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro		L	LPC likely
216.	Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid		L	LPC likely
217.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson		L	LPC likely
218.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney		L	LPC likely
219.	Saint John—Kennebecasis Wayne Long		L	LPC likely
220.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu		L	LPC likely
221.	London West Arielle Kayabaga		L	LPC likely
222.	Avalon Paul Connors		L	LPC likely
223.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko		L	LPC likely
224.	Laval—Les Îles Faycal El-Khoury		L	LPC safe
225.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger		L	LPC safe
226.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Stephanie McLean		L	LPC safe
227.	Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau		L	LPC safe
228.	Jonquière Mario Simard		B	BQ safe
229.	Burnaby North—Seymour Terry Beech		L	LPC safe
230.	North Vancouver—Capilano Jonathan Wilkinson		L	LPC safe
231.	Trois-Rivières Caroline Desrochers		L	LPC leaning
232.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand		L	LPC leaning
233.	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Patrick Weiler		L	LPC safe
234.	Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry		L	LPC safe
235.	Charlottetown Sean Casey		L	LPC safe
236.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May		G	GPC likely
237.	Kanata Jenna Sudds		L	LPC safe
238.	Fredericton—Oromocto David Myles		L	LPC safe
239.	Winnipeg North Kevin Lamoureux		L	LPC safe
240.	London Centre Peter Fragiskatos		L	LPC safe
241.	Sackville—Bedford—Preston Braedon Clark		L	LPC safe
242.	Edmonton Strathcona Heather McPherson		N	NDP safe
243.	Beauséjour Dominic LeBlanc		L	LPC safe
244.	Kings—Hants Kody Blois		L	LPC safe
245.	Winnipeg South Terry Duguid		L	LPC safe
246.	Scarborough North Shaun Chen		L	LPC safe
247.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church		L	LPC safe
248.	Guelph Dominique O’Rourke		L	LPC safe
249.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies		N	NDP likely