Conservative Party of Canada
Latest update: October 27, 2024
Leader | Pierre Poilievre |
National popular vote in 2021 | 33.7% |
Current vote projection | 42.2% ± 4.0% |
Current number of MPs | TBD |
Current seat projection | 217 [190-241] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.
Popular vote projection | October 27, 2024
Seat projection | October 27, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Transposed 2021 winner |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Souris—Moose Mountain | CPC safe | >99% | ||
2. | Battle River—Crowfoot | CPC safe | >99% | ||
3. | Bow River | CPC safe | >99% | ||
4. | Ponoka—Didsbury | CPC safe | >99% | ||
5. | Foothills | CPC safe | >99% | ||
6. | Grande Prairie | CPC safe | >99% | ||
7. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | CPC safe | >99% | ||
8. | Lakeland | CPC safe | >99% | ||
9. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | CPC safe | >99% | ||
10. | Yorkton—Melville | CPC safe | >99% | ||
11. | Huron—Bruce | CPC safe | >99% | ||
12. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies | CPC safe | >99% | ||
13. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | CPC safe | >99% | ||
14. | Red Deer | CPC safe | >99% | ||
15. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | CPC safe | >99% | ||
16. | Peace River—Westlock | CPC safe | >99% | ||
17. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | CPC safe | >99% | ||
18. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | CPC safe | >99% | ||
19. | Perth—Wellington | CPC safe | >99% | ||
20. | Calgary Shephard | CPC safe | >99% | ||
21. | York—Durham | CPC safe | >99% | ||
22. | Lethbridge | CPC safe | >99% | ||
23. | Prince Albert | CPC safe | >99% | ||
24. | Thornhill | CPC safe | >99% | ||
25. | Riding Mountain | CPC safe | >99% | ||
26. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CPC safe | >99% | ||
27. | Parkland | CPC safe | >99% | ||
28. | Brandon—Souris | CPC safe | >99% | ||
29. | Calgary Signal Hill | CPC safe | >99% | ||
30. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | CPC safe | >99% | ||
31. | Calgary Midnapore | CPC safe | >99% | ||
32. | Tobique—Mactaquac | CPC safe | >99% | ||
33. | Carleton | CPC safe | >99% | ||
34. | Airdrie—Cochrane | CPC safe | >99% | ||
35. | Beauce | CPC safe | >99% | ||
36. | Calgary Heritage | CPC safe | >99% | ||
37. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | CPC safe | >99% | ||
38. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | CPC safe | >99% | ||
39. | Yellowhead | CPC safe | >99% | ||
40. | Cariboo—Prince George | CPC safe | >99% | ||
41. | Acadie—Annapolis | CPC safe | >99% | ||
42. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | CPC safe | >99% | ||
43. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | CPC safe | >99% | ||
44. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | CPC safe | >99% | ||
45. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South | CPC safe | >99% | ||
46. | Lanark—Frontenac | CPC safe | >99% | ||
47. | Portage—Lisgar | CPC safe | >99% | ||
48. | Dufferin—Caledon | CPC safe | >99% | ||
49. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | CPC safe | >99% | ||
50. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | CPC safe | >99% | ||
51. | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna | CPC safe | >99% | ||
52. | Barrie South—Innisfil | CPC safe | >99% | ||
53. | Haldimand—Norfolk | CPC safe | >99% | ||
54. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | CPC safe | >99% | ||
55. | Cumberland—Colchester | CPC safe | >99% | ||
56. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | CPC safe | >99% | ||
57. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | CPC safe | >99% | ||
58. | Calgary Nose Hill | CPC safe | >99% | ||
59. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | CPC safe | >99% | ||
60. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CPC safe | >99% | ||
61. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | CPC safe | >99% | ||
62. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | CPC safe | >99% | ||
63. | Simcoe—Grey | CPC safe | >99% | ||
64. | Calgary East | CPC safe | >99% | ||
65. | Saint John—St. Croix | CPC safe | >99% | ||
66. | Oxford | CPC safe | >99% | ||
67. | Fundy Royal | CPC safe | >99% | ||
68. | Wellington—Halton Hills North | CPC safe | >99% | ||
69. | Middlesex—London | CPC safe | >99% | ||
70. | King—Vaughan | CPC safe | >99% | ||
71. | Calgary Crowfoot | CPC safe | >99% | ||
72. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | CPC safe | >99% | ||
73. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | CPC safe | >99% | ||
74. | Chilliwack—Hope | CPC safe | >99% | ||
75. | Abbotsford—South Langley | CPC safe | >99% | ||
76. | Richmond—Arthabaska | CPC safe | >99% | ||
77. | Bowmanville—Oshawa North | CPC safe | >99% | ||
78. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CPC safe | >99% | ||
79. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | CPC safe | >99% | ||
80. | Provencher | CPC safe | >99% | ||
81. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | CPC safe | >99% | ||
82. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North | CPC safe | >99% | ||
83. | Calgary Centre | CPC safe | >99% | ||
84. | Northumberland—Clarke | CPC safe | >99% | ||
85. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | CPC safe | >99% | ||
86. | Niagara West | CPC safe | >99% | ||
87. | South Shore—St. Margarets | CPC safe | >99% | ||
88. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | CPC safe | >99% | ||
89. | South Surrey—White Rock | CPC safe | >99% | ||
90. | Regina—Wascana | CPC safe | >99% | ||
91. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | CPC safe | >99% | ||
92. | Edmonton West | CPC safe | >99% | ||
93. | Edmonton Riverbend | CPC safe | >99% | ||
94. | Simcoe North | CPC safe | >99% | ||
95. | Kelowna | CPC safe | >99% | ||
96. | Calgary Skyview | CPC safe | >99% | ||
97. | Bay of Quinte | CPC safe | >99% | ||
98. | Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations | CPC safe | >99% | ||
99. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | CPC safe | >99% | ||
100. | Edmonton Northwest | CPC safe | >99% | ||
101. | Edmonton Gateway | CPC safe | >99% | ||
102. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | CPC safe | >99% | ||
103. | Calgary Confederation | CPC safe | >99% | ||
104. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | CPC safe | >99% | ||
105. | Peterborough | CPC safe | >99% | ||
106. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | CPC safe | >99% | ||
107. | Oshawa | CPC safe | >99% | ||
108. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | CPC safe | >99% | ||
109. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | CPC safe | >99% | ||
110. | Lévis—Lotbinière | CPC safe | >99% | ||
111. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | CPC safe | >99% | ||
112. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | CPC safe | >99% | ||
113. | Niagara South | CPC safe | >99% | ||
114. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | CPC safe | >99% | ||
115. | Milton East—Halton Hills South | CPC safe | >99% | ||
116. | Kildonan—St. Paul | CPC safe | >99% | ||
117. | Essex | CPC safe | >99% | ||
118. | Kitchener—Conestoga | CPC safe | >99% | ||
119. | Saskatoon South | CPC safe | >99% | ||
120. | Central Newfoundland | CPC safe | >99% | ||
121. | Long Range Mountains | CPC safe | >99% | ||
122. | Edmonton Southeast | CPC safe | >99% | ||
123. | Cloverdale—Langley City | CPC safe | >99% | ||
124. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CPC safe | >99% | ||
125. | London West | CPC safe | >99% | ||
126. | Edmonton Manning | CPC safe | >99% | ||
127. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | CPC safe | >99% | ||
128. | Richmond Centre—Marpole | CPC safe | >99% | ||
129. | Fredericton—Oromocto | CPC safe | >99% | ||
130. | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas | CPC safe | >99% | ||
131. | Cambridge | CPC safe | >99% | ||
132. | Eglinton—Lawrence | CPC safe | >99% | ||
133. | York Centre | CPC safe | >99% | ||
134. | Sydney—Glace Bay | CPC safe | >99% | ||
135. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | CPC safe | >99% | ||
136. | St. Catharines | CPC safe | >99% | ||
137. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | CPC safe | >99% | ||
138. | Saskatoon—University | CPC safe | >99% | ||
139. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | CPC safe | >99% | ||
140. | Markham—Unionville | CPC safe | >99% | ||
141. | Newmarket—Aurora | CPC safe | >99% | ||
142. | Winnipeg West | CPC safe | >99% | ||
143. | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay | CPC safe | >99% | ||
144. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | CPC safe | >99% | ||
145. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | CPC safe | >99% | ||
146. | Kanata | CPC safe | >99% | ||
147. | Oakville East | CPC safe | >99% | ||
148. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | CPC safe | >99% | ||
149. | Regina—Lewvan | CPC safe | >99% | ||
150. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | CPC safe | >99% | ||
151. | Burlington | CPC safe | >99% | ||
152. | Richmond East—Steveston | CPC safe | >99% | ||
153. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely | 99% | ||
154. | Delta | CPC likely | 99% | ||
155. | Central Nova | CPC likely | 99% | ||
156. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | CPC likely | 99% | ||
157. | Malpeque | CPC likely | 99% | ||
158. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | CPC likely | 99% | ||
159. | North Island—Powell River | CPC likely | 99% | ||
160. | Richmond Hill South | CPC likely | 99% | ||
161. | Willowdale | CPC likely | 99% | ||
162. | Oakville West | CPC likely | 99% | ||
163. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | CPC likely | 99% | ||
164. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CPC likely | 99% | ||
165. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely | 98% | ||
166. | Burlington North—Milton West | CPC likely | 98% | ||
167. | Whitby | CPC likely | 98% | ||
168. | Kings—Hants | CPC likely | 98% | ||
169. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | CPC likely | 97% | ||
170. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely | 97% | ||
171. | Calgary McKnight | CPC likely | 96% | ||
172. | Nepean | CPC likely | 96% | ||
173. | Sudbury | CPC likely | 95% | ||
174. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | CPC likely | 95% | ||
175. | Mississauga—Streetsville | CPC likely | 95% | ||
176. | Avalon | CPC likely | 94% | ||
177. | Egmont | CPC likely | 93% | ||
178. | Pickering—Brooklin | CPC likely | 93% | ||
179. | Vancouver Quadra | CPC likely | 92% | ||
180. | Charlottetown | CPC likely | 92% | ||
181. | Labrador | CPC likely | 92% | ||
182. | North Vancouver—Capilano | CPC likely | 91% | ||
183. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | CPC likely | 91% | ||
184. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | CPC likely | 90% | ||
185. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | CPC leaning | 90% | ||
186. | Don Valley North | CPC leaning | 89% | ||
187. | Burnaby North—Seymour | CPC leaning | 89% | ||
188. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | CPC leaning | 88% | ||
189. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning | 85% | ||
190. | Markham—Stouffville | CPC leaning | 85% | ||
191. | Cardigan | CPC leaning | 84% | ||
192. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | CPC leaning | 81% | ||
193. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning | 81% | ||
194. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | CPC leaning | 81% | ||
195. | Edmonton Griesbach | CPC leaning | 77% | ||
196. | Brampton North—Caledon | CPC leaning | 77% | ||
197. | London Centre | CPC leaning | 75% | ||
198. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | CPC leaning | 75% | ||
199. | Ottawa West—Nepean | CPC leaning | 74% | ||
200. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | CPC leaning | 74% | ||
201. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning | 74% | ||
202. | Courtenay—Alberni | CPC leaning | 73% | ||
203. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | CPC leaning | 73% | ||
204. | Kingston and the Islands | CPC leaning | 73% | ||
205. | Waterloo | CPC leaning | 72% | ||
206. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | Toss up CPC/BQ | 68% | ||
207. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Toss up LPC/CPC | 68% | ||
208. | Guelph | Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% | ||
209. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP | 67% | ||
210. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% | ||
211. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Toss up LPC/CPC | 61% | ||
212. | Don Valley West | Toss up LPC/CPC | 57% | ||
213. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC | 51% | ||
214. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | Toss up CPC/NDP | 51% | ||
215. | Mississauga—Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC | 51% | ||
216. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Toss up LPC/CPC | 50% | ||
217. | Trois-Rivières | Toss up CPC/BQ | 49% | ||
218. | Winnipeg South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% | ||
219. | Yukon | Toss up CPC/NDP | 44% | ||
220. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | Toss up LPC/CPC | 41% | ||
221. | Louis-Hébert | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 40% | ||
222. | St. Boniface—St. Vital | Toss up LPC/CPC | 38% | ||
223. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 38% | ||
224. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 38% | ||
225. | Beauport—Limoilou | Toss up CPC/BQ | 36% | ||
226. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 36% | ||
227. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up CPC/NDP | 35% | ||
228. | Orléans | Toss up LPC/CPC | 35% | ||
229. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP | 34% | ||
230. | Brampton East | Toss up LPC/CPC | 34% | ||
231. | Mississauga Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC | 32% | ||
232. | Elmwood—Transcona | NDP leaning | 30% | ||
233. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC leaning | 28% | ||
234. | Surrey Centre | LPC leaning | 27% | ||
235. | Halifax West | LPC leaning | 23% | ||
236. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | BQ leaning | 22% | ||
237. | Moncton—Dieppe | LPC leaning | 22% | ||
238. | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | LPC leaning | 19% | ||
239. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 19% | ||
240. | Brampton West | LPC leaning | 18% | ||
241. | Ajax | LPC leaning | 15% | ||
242. | Etobicoke North | LPC leaning | 12% | ||
243. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | NDP leaning | 11% | ||
244. | London—Fanshawe | NDP likely | 9% | ||
245. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | GPC likely | 7% | ||
246. | Mount Royal | LPC likely | 7% | ||
247. | York South—Weston—Etobicoke | LPC likely | 7% | ||
248. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning | 6% | ||
249. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | LPC likely | 6% | ||
250. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | LPC likely | 4% | ||
251. | Laval—Les-Îles | LPC likely | 4% | ||
252. | Kitchener Centre | GPC likely | 4% | ||
253. | Northwest Territories | NDP leaning | 3% | ||
254. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | NDP likely | 3% | ||
255. | University—Rosedale | LPC likely | 3% | ||
256. | Cape Spear | LPC likely | 3% | ||
257. | Markham—Thornhill | LPC likely | 3% | ||
258. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NDP likely | 2% | ||
259. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | LPC likely | 2% | ||
260. | Scarborough—Woburn | LPC likely | 2% | ||
261. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | LPC likely | 2% | ||
262. | Windsor West | NDP likely | 1% |