Conservative Party of Canada

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada

Rank	Electoral districts	Province	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Souris–Moose Mountain			CPC safe hold	>99%
2.	Cypress Hills–Grasslands			CPC safe hold	>99%
3.	Battle River–Crowfoot			CPC safe hold	>99%
4.	Bow River			CPC safe hold	>99%
5.	Fort McMurray–Cold Lake			CPC safe hold	>99%
6.	Lakeland			CPC safe hold	>99%
7.	Yorkton–Melville			CPC safe hold	>99%
8.	Grande Prairie–Mackenzie			CPC safe hold	>99%
9.	Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek			CPC safe hold	>99%
10.	Foothills			CPC safe hold	>99%
11.	Red Deer–Lacombe			CPC safe hold	>99%
12.	Yellowhead			CPC safe hold	>99%
13.	Red Deer–Mountain View			CPC safe hold	>99%
14.	Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner			CPC safe hold	>99%
15.	Prince Albert			CPC safe hold	>99%
16.	Mégantic–L’Érable			CPC safe hold	>99%
17.	Battlefords–Lloydminster			CPC safe hold	>99%
18.	Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies			CPC safe hold	>99%
19.	Sturgeon River–Parkland			CPC safe hold	>99%
20.	Peace River–Westlock			CPC safe hold	>99%
21.	Regina–Qu’Appelle			CPC safe hold	>99%
22.	Calgary Midnapore			CPC safe hold	>99%
23.	Calgary Shepard			CPC safe hold	>99%
24.	Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan			CPC safe hold	>99%
25.	Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry			CPC safe hold	>99%
26.	Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier			CPC safe hold	>99%
27.	Lévis–Lotbinière			CPC safe hold	>99%
28.	Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup			CPC safe hold	>99%
29.	Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis			CPC safe hold	>99%
30.	Louis-Saint-Laurent			CPC safe hold	>99%
31.	Richmond–Arthabaska			CPC safe hold	>99%
32.	Beauce			CPC safe hold	>99%
33.	Calgary Signal Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
34.	Cariboo–Prince George			CPC safe hold	>99%
35.	Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan			CPC safe hold	>99%
36.	Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock			CPC safe hold	>99%
37.	Huron–Bruce			CPC safe hold	>99%
38.	Calgary Heritage			CPC safe hold	>99%
39.	Wellington–Halton Hills			CPC safe hold	>99%
40.	Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa			CPC safe hold	>99%
41.	Banff–Airdrie			CPC safe hold	>99%
42.	Lethbridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
43.	Edmonton–Wetaskiwin			CPC safe hold	>99%
44.	Calgary Nose Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
45.	York–Simcoe			CPC safe hold	>99%
46.	Elgin–Middlesex–London			CPC safe hold	>99%
47.	Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke			CPC safe hold	>99%
48.	Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes			CPC safe hold	>99%
49.	Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound			CPC safe hold	>99%
50.	Portage–Lisgar			CPC safe hold	>99%
51.	Perth–Wellington			CPC safe hold	>99%
52.	Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman			CPC safe hold	>99%
53.	Haldimand–Norfolk			CPC safe hold	>99%
54.	Abbotsford			CPC safe hold	>99%
55.	Lambton–Kent–Middlesex			CPC safe hold	>99%
56.	North Okanagan–Shuswap			CPC safe hold	>99%
57.	Sarnia–Lambton			CPC safe hold	>99%
58.	Oxford			CPC safe hold	>99%
59.	Parry Sound–Muskoka			CPC safe hold	>99%
60.	Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles			CPC safe hold	>99%
61.	Tobique–Mactaquac			CPC safe hold	>99%
62.	Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston			CPC safe hold	>99%
63.	New Brunswick Southwest			CPC safe hold	>99%
64.	Simcoe–Grey			CPC safe hold	>99%
65.	Barrie–Innisfil			CPC safe hold	>99%
66.	Chilliwack–Hope			CPC safe hold	>99%
67.	Calgary Rocky Ridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
68.	Dufferin–Caledon			CPC safe hold	>99%
69.	Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola			CPC safe hold	>99%
70.	Provencher			CPC safe hold	>99%
71.	Brandon–Souris			CPC safe hold	>99%
72.	Fundy Royal			CPC safe hold	>99%
73.	Durham			CPC safe hold	>99%
74.	Langley–Aldergrove			CPC safe hold	>99%
75.	Kelowna–Lake Country			CPC safe hold	>99%
76.	Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon			CPC safe hold	>99%
77.	Niagara West			CPC safe hold	>99%
78.	Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo			CPC safe hold	>99%
79.	Carleton			CPC safe hold	>99%
80.	Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte			CPC safe hold	>99%
81.	Thornhill			CPC safe hold	>99%
82.	Brantford–Brant			CPC safe hold	>99%
83.	West Nova			CPC safe hold	>99%
84.	Simcoe North			CPC safe hold	>99%
85.	Chatham-Kent–Leamington			CPC safe hold	>99%
86.	Regina–Wascana			CPC safe hold	>99%
87.	Northumberland–Peterborough South			CPC safe hold	>99%
88.	Chicoutimi–Le Fjord			CPC likely hold	99%
89.	Hastings–Lennox and Addington			CPC likely hold	99%
90.	Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River			CPC likely hold	99%
91.	Edmonton West			CPC likely hold	99%
92.	Kootenay–Columbia			CPC likely hold	98%
93.	Edmonton Riverbend			CPC likely hold	98%
94.	Cumberland–Colchester			CPC likely hold	97%
95.	Calgary Centre			CPC likely hold	96%
96.	St. Albert–Edmonton			CPC likely hold	96%
97.	Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge			CPC likely hold	95%
98.	Oshawa			CPC likely hold	95%
99.	Kildonan–St. Paul			CPC likely hold	95%
100.	Niagara Falls			CPC likely hold	95%
101.	Bay of Quinte			CPC likely hold	94%
102.	Kenora			CPC likely hold	94%
103.	Flamborough–Glanbrook			CPC likely hold	93%
104.	Peterborough–Kawartha			CPC likely hold	93%
105.	Calgary Forest Lawn			CPC likely hold	92%
106.	Saskatoon–University			CPC likely hold	92%
107.	Calgary Confederation			CPC likely hold	92%
108.	Saskatoon–Grasswood			CPC likely hold	91%
109.	Trois-Rivières			CPC leaning gain	89%
110.	Essex			CPC leaning hold	88%
111.	King–Vaughan			CPC leaning hold	88%
112.	Regina–Lewvan			CPC leaning hold	87%
113.	Saskatoon West			CPC leaning hold	80%
114.	Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley			CPC leaning hold	80%
115.	Beauport–Limoilou			CPC leaning gain	80%
116.	South Shore–St. Margarets			CPC leaning hold	76%
117.	Miramichi–Grand Lake			CPC leaning hold	76%
118.	Sault Ste. Marie			CPC leaning gain	71%
119.	South Surrey–White Rock			Toss up LPC/CPC	70%
120.	Kitchener–Conestoga			Toss up LPC/CPC	67%
121.	Kitchener South–Hespeler			Toss up LPC/CPC	67%
122.	Edmonton Mill Woods			Toss up LPC/CPC	66%
123.	Nanaimo–Ladysmith			Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC	66%
124.	Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame			Toss up LPC/CPC	66%
125.	Edmonton Manning			Toss up CPC/NDP	65%
126.	North Island–Powell River			Toss up CPC/NDP	65%
127.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix			Toss up CPC/BQ	59%
128.	Newmarket–Aurora			Toss up LPC/CPC	50%
129.	Niagara Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	49%
130.	South Okanagan–West Kootenay			Toss up CPC/NDP	48%
131.	Skeena–Bulkley Valley			Toss up CPC/NDP	47%
132.	Kanata–Carleton			Toss up LPC/CPC	47%
133.	Markham–Unionville			Toss up LPC/CPC	45%
134.	Vaughan–Woodbridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	45%
135.	Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	44%
136.	St. Catharines			Toss up LPC/CPC	44%
137.	Port Moody–Coquitlam			Toss up CPC/NDP	43%
138.	Oakville			Toss up LPC/CPC	43%
139.	Cambridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	43%
140.	London West			Toss up LPC/CPC	42%
141.	Fredericton			Toss up LPC/CPC	40%
142.	Nipissing–Timiskaming			Toss up LPC/CPC	37%
143.	Sydney–Victoria			Toss up LPC/CPC	36%
144.	Richmond Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	35%
145.	Cloverdale–Langley City			Toss up LPC/CPC	33%
146.	Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	32%
147.	Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	31%
148.	Whitby			Toss up LPC/CPC	31%
149.	Oakville North–Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	31%
150.	Mississauga–Lakeshore			LPC leaning hold	28%
151.	Long Range Mountains			LPC leaning hold	27%
152.	York Centre			LPC leaning hold	27%
153.	Bonavista–Burin–Trinity			LPC leaning hold	25%
154.	Edmonton Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	23%
155.	Thunder Bay–Rainy River			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	23%
156.	Jonquière			BQ leaning hold	23%
157.	Pickering–Uxbridge			LPC leaning hold	20%
158.	West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country			LPC leaning hold	20%
159.	Malpeque			LPC leaning hold	16%
160.	Nepean			LPC leaning hold	15%
161.	Glengarry–Prescott–Russell			LPC leaning hold	15%
162.	Eglinton–Lawrence			LPC leaning hold	15%
163.	Yukon			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	14%
164.	Hamilton East–Stoney Creek			LPC leaning hold	14%
165.	Courtenay–Alberni			NDP leaning hold	14%
166.	Calgary Skyview			LPC leaning hold	13%
167.	Sudbury			LPC leaning hold	13%
168.	Etobicoke Centre			LPC leaning hold	12%
169.	Nickel Belt			LPC leaning hold	10%
170.	Labrador			LPC leaning hold	9%
171.	Mississauga–Streetsville			LPC likely hold	8%
172.	Markham–Stouffville			LPC likely hold	7%
173.	Delta			LPC likely hold	7%
174.	Cowichan–Malahat–Langford			NDP likely hold	7%
175.	London North Centre			LPC leaning hold	6%
176.	Cape Breton–Canso			LPC likely hold	6%
177.	Steveston–Richmond East			LPC likely hold	6%
178.	Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam			LPC likely hold	6%
179.	Brampton Centre			LPC likely hold	5%
180.	Etobicoke–Lakeshore			LPC likely hold	5%
181.	Don Valley West			LPC likely hold	5%
182.	Windsor–Tecumseh			Toss up LPC/NDP	4%
183.	Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas			LPC likely hold	4%
184.	Egmont			LPC likely hold	4%
185.	Vancouver Granville			LPC leaning hold	4%
186.	Charlottetown			LPC likely hold	3%
187.	Willowdale			LPC likely hold	3%
188.	Timmins–James Bay			NDP likely hold	3%
189.	Mississauga–Erin Mills			LPC likely hold	3%
190.	Louis-Hébert			LPC likely hold	3%
191.	Saint John–Rothesay			LPC likely hold	2%
192.	Central Nova			LPC likely hold	2%
193.	Mississauga East–Cooksville			LPC likely hold	2%
194.	Milton			LPC likely hold	2%
195.	Ottawa West–Nepean			LPC likely hold	2%
196.	Edmonton Griesbach			NDP likely hold	1%
197.	Avalon			LPC likely hold	1%
198.	Waterloo			LPC likely hold	1%