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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: July 6, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.4% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection127 [85-169]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 127 [85-169] 39% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 127 [85-169] July 6, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 8/78 ON 49/122 MB 5/14 SK 10/14 AB 31/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.0% ▼ 39.4% ± 4.4% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.8% ▼ Probabilities % CPC July 6, 2025

Seat projection | July 6, 2025

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 85 ▼ 127 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 169 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC July 6, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
4. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
8. Bow River CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
21. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
33. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
34. Beauce CPC safe >99%
35. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
36. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
37. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
38. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
39. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
40. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
41. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely >99%
42. Calgary East CPC likely >99%
43. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely >99%
44. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely >99%
45. Lethbridge CPC likely >99%
46. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely >99%
47. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC likely >99%
48. Essex CPC likely >99%
49. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
50. Calgary Heritage CPC likely >99%
51. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely >99%
52. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely 99%
53. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 99%
54. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely 99%
55. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely 99%
56. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 99%
57. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
58. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 98%
59. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 98%
60. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 98%
61. York—Durham CPC likely 98%
62. Oxford CPC likely 98%
63. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 98%
64. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 98%
65. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 97%
66. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 96%
67. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 96%
68. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 95%
69. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 95%
70. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 94%
71. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 94%
72. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 93%
73. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely 93%
74. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 92%
75. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 92%
76. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 92%
77. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 92%
78. York Centre CPC likely 91%
79. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 90%
80. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 90%
81. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 89%
82. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 88%
83. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 88%
84. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 87%
85. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 86%
86. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 86%
87. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 85%
88. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 84%
89. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 83%
90. Niagara West CPC leaning 83%
91. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 83%
92. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 82%
93. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 79%
94. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC leaning 79%
95. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 78%
96. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 78%
97. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 78%
98. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 77%
99. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 77%
100. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 77%
101. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 76%
102. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 76%
103. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 76%
104. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 75%
105. Windsor West CPC leaning 74%
106. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 73%
107. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 71%
108. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
109. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
110. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
111. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 67%
112. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
113. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
114. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
115. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
116. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
117. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
118. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
119. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
120. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
121. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
122. Saskatoon South Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
123. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
124. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
125. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
126. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
127. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
128. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
129. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
130. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 48%
131. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
132. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
133. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
134. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
135. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
136. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
137. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
138. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
139. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
140. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
141. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
142. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
143. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
144. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
145. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
146. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
147. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 31%
148. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 30%
149. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 29%
150. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 29%
151. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 28%
152. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 27%
153. Calgary Centre LPC leaning 27%
154. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 26%
155. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 26%
156. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 24%
157. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 24%
158. Kildonan—St. Paul LPC leaning 24%
159. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 23%
160. Calgary McKnight LPC leaning 23%
161. Brampton East LPC leaning 22%
162. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 20%
163. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 20%
164. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 20%
165. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 16%
166. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 16%
167. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 15%
168. Carleton LPC leaning 15%
169. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 14%
170. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 14%
171. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 13%
172. Oakville East LPC leaning 13%
173. Delta LPC leaning 13%
174. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 12%
175. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 11%
176. Labrador LPC likely 8%
177. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 8%
178. Oakville West LPC likely 7%
179. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 7%
180. Willowdale LPC likely 7%
181. Whitby LPC likely 6%
182. Calgary Confederation LPC likely 6%
183. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 5%
184. Egmont LPC likely 4%
185. Don Valley North LPC likely 4%
186. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 4%
187. Etobicoke North LPC likely 4%
188. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 4%
189. Yukon LPC likely 3%
190. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 3%
191. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 3%
192. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 3%
193. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 2%
195. St. Catharines LPC likely 2%
196. Jonquière BQ likely 2%
197. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
198. Central Nova LPC likely 1%
199. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 1%
200. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 1%
201. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
202. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 1%
203. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%