338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: April 11, 2021

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 201934.3%
Current vote projection30.9% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's120
Current seat projection113 ± 28



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
5. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
8. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
9. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
10. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
11. Foothills CPC safe >99%
12. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
13. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
15. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
19. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
20. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
21. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
25. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
26. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
29. Provencher CPC safe >99%
30. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe >99%
31. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
32. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
33. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
34. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
35. Regina–Qu`Appelle CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
37. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
38. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
39. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe >99%
41. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
42. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
43. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
44. Oxford CPC safe >99%
45. Mégantic–L`Érable CPC safe >99%
46. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
47. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
49. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe >99%
50. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
51. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
52. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
53. Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
54. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
55. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
56. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
57. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe >99%
58. York–Simcoe CPC safe >99%
59. Perth–Wellington CPC safe >99%
60. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe >99%
61. Edmonton West CPC likely 99%
62. Thornhill CPC likely 99%
63. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
64. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 98%
65. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 98%
66. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely 98%
67. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 98%
68. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 98%
69. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 97%
70. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 97%
71. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely 97%
72. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 97%
73. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 97%
74. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely 97%
75. Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 96%
76. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely 96%
77. Durham CPC likely 95%
78. Niagara West CPC likely 95%
79. Fundy Royal CPC likely 95%
80. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 95%
81. Simcoe North CPC likely 95%
82. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 93%
83. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 92%
84. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 92%
85. Carleton CPC likely 91%
86. Regina–Wascana CPC likely 91%
87. Calgary Confederation CPC likely 90%
88. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 89%
89. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 89%
90. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning 88%
91. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning 86%
92. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning 86%
93. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning 85%
94. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 82%
95. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning 82%
96. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning 80%
97. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning 79%
98. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC leaning 78%
99. Oshawa CPC leaning 78%
100. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning 77%
101. Beauce CPC leaning 77%
102. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 76%
103. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 74%
104. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning 71%
105. Essex Toss up 68%
106. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 67%
107. Calgary Skyview Toss up 66%
108. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 66%
109. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 63%
110. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 59%
111. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 58%
112. Niagara Falls Toss up 57%
113. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 53%
114. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 51%
115. Kenora Toss up 50%
116. Saskatoon West Toss up 50%
117. West Nova Toss up 50%
118. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up 43%
119. Edmonton Centre Toss up 42%
120. Richmond Hill Toss up 38%
121. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up 37%
122. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 36%
123. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 32%
124. King–Vaughan Toss up 32%
125. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 29%
126. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 27%
127. Trois-Rivières Toss up 26%
128. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning 26%
129. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 22%
130. York Centre LPC leaning 20%
131. Fredericton Toss up 19%
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning 17%
133. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 16%
134. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 13%
135. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 11%
136. Oakville LPC leaning 11%
137. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 10%
138. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 10%
139. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 8%
140. Whitby LPC likely 7%
141. St. Catharines LPC likely 5%
142. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 5%
143. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely 5%
144. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 5%
145. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 4%
146. Cambridge LPC likely 4%
147. Central Nova LPC likely 3%
148. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 3%
149. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 3%
150. Jonquière BQ likely 3%
151. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 3%
152. Willowdale LPC likely 3%
153. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 3%
154. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 2%
155. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 2%
156. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 2%
157. Nepean LPC likely 2%
158. Nanaimo–Ladysmith GPC leaning 1%
159. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 1%
160. Egmont LPC likely 1%
161. Burnaby South NDP likely 1%
162. North Island–Powell River NDP likely 1%
163. Don Valley North LPC likely 1%
164. Milton LPC likely 1%
165. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely <1%
166. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely <1%
167. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP likely <1%
168. Burlington LPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
4. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
5. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
6. Bow River CPC safe
7. Lakeland CPC safe
8. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
9. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
10. Yellowhead CPC safe
11. Foothills CPC safe
12. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
13. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
15. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
16. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
17. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
18. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
19. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
20. Prince Albert CPC safe
21. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
25. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
26. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
29. Provencher CPC safe
30. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe
31. Lethbridge CPC safe
32. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
33. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
34. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
35. Regina–Qu`Appelle CPC safe
36. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
37. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
38. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
39. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe
41. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
42. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
43. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
44. Oxford CPC safe
45. Mégantic–L`Érable CPC safe
46. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
47. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
49. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe
50. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
51. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
52. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
53. Abbotsford CPC safe
54. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
55. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe
56. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
57. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe
58. York–Simcoe CPC safe
59. Perth–Wellington CPC safe
60. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe
61. Edmonton West CPC likely
62. Thornhill CPC likely
63. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
64. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
65. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
66. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely
67. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
68. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
69. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
70. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
71. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely
72. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
73. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
74. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely
75. Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
76. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely
77. Durham CPC likely
78. Niagara West CPC likely
79. Fundy Royal CPC likely
80. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
81. Simcoe North CPC likely
82. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
83. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely
84. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
85. Carleton CPC likely
86. Regina–Wascana CPC likely
87. Calgary Confederation CPC likely
88. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
89. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
90. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning
91. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning
92. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning
93. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning
94. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
95. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning
96. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC leaning
97. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning
98. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC leaning
99. Oshawa CPC leaning
100. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning
101. Beauce CPC leaning
102. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
103. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
104. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning
105. Essex Toss up
106. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
107. Calgary Skyview Toss up
108. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
109. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
110. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
111. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
112. Niagara Falls Toss up
113. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
114. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
115. Kenora Toss up
116. Saskatoon West Toss up
117. West Nova Toss up
118. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up
119. Edmonton Centre Toss up
120. Richmond Hill Toss up
121. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up
122. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
123. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
124. King–Vaughan Toss up
125. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
126. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
127. Trois-Rivières Toss up
128. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning
129. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
130. York Centre LPC leaning
131. Fredericton Toss up
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning
133. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
134. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
135. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
136. Oakville LPC leaning
137. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
138. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
139. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
140. Whitby LPC likely
141. St. Catharines LPC likely
142. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
143. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely
144. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
145. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
146. Cambridge LPC likely
147. Central Nova LPC likely
148. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
149. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
150. Jonquière BQ likely
151. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
152. Willowdale LPC likely
153. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
154. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
155. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
156. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
157. Nepean LPC likely
158. Nanaimo–Ladysmith GPC leaning
159. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
160. Egmont LPC likely
161. Burnaby South NDP likely
162. North Island–Powell River NDP likely
163. Don Valley North LPC likely
164. Milton LPC likely
165. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
166. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
167. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP likely
168. Burlington LPC likely



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