338Canada | Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: September 20, 2021

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 201934.3%
Current vote projection31.4% ± 4.1%
Current number of MP's119
Current seat projection125 ± 36



Vote Projection | Conservative Party of Canada | September 20, 2021




Seat Projection | Conservative Party of Canada | September 20, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Bow River CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
6. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
7. Foothills CPC safe >99%
8. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
9. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
13. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
14. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
15. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
16. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
18. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
20. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
21. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
22. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
23. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
25. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
26. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
28. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
29. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe >99%
30. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
31. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
32. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
33. Provencher CPC safe >99%
34. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
35. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
36. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
37. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
38. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
39. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
40. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
41. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
42. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
43. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
44. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe >99%
45. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe >99%
46. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
47. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
50. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe >99%
51. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe >99%
52. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
53. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
54. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
55. Richmond Centre CPC safe >99%
56. Oxford CPC safe >99%
57. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe >99%
58. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
59. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe >99%
60. Perth–Wellington CPC safe >99%
61. York–Simcoe CPC safe >99%
62. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe >99%
63. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
64. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
65. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
66. Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
67. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe >99%
68. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe >99%
69. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
70. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe >99%
71. Huron–Bruce CPC safe >99%
72. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe >99%
73. Durham CPC safe >99%
74. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe >99%
75. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe >99%
76. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
77. Edmonton West CPC likely 99%
78. Simcoe North CPC likely 99%
79. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 99%
80. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 99%
81. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 99%
82. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely 99%
83. Brantford–Brant CPC likely 99%
84. Carleton CPC likely 99%
85. Steveston–Richmond East CPC likely 98%
86. Regina–Wascana CPC likely 98%
87. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 98%
88. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC likely 98%
89. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely 98%
90. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 97%
91. Beauce CPC likely 96%
92. Markham–Unionville CPC likely 96%
93. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 96%
94. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely 92%
95. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning 87%
96. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning 84%
97. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 83%
98. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning 82%
99. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning 75%
100. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 73%
101. Oshawa CPC leaning 73%
102. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 72%
103. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
104. Cumberland–Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
105. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP 67%
106. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
107. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
108. West Nova Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
109. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
110. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
111. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP 62%
112. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP 61%
113. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 60%
114. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP 59%
115. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
116. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
117. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
118. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 52%
119. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
120. Kitchener Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC 50%
121. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
122. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
123. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
124. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 46%
125. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
126. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
127. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 45%
128. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
129. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 44%
130. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
131. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 42%
132. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
133. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 41%
134. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
135. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
136. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
137. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
138. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
139. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
141. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 33%
142. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
143. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
144. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
145. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning 27%
146. Winnipeg South LPC leaning 27%
147. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 25%
148. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 24%
149. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 22%
150. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning 22%
151. Oakville LPC leaning 21%
152. St. Catharines LPC leaning 21%
153. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 20%
154. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning 20%
155. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 19%
156. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 19%
157. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning 18%
158. York Centre LPC leaning 17%
159. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning 16%
160. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 13%
161. Yukon LPC leaning 12%
162. Malpeque LPC leaning 11%
163. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 10%
164. Cambridge LPC likely 9%
165. Willowdale LPC likely 8%
166. London West LPC likely 8%
167. Central Nova LPC likely 8%
168. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning 7%
169. Vancouver South LPC likely 7%
170. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning 6%
171. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 6%
172. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
173. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC likely 5%
174. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 4%
175. Nepean LPC likely 4%
176. Burlington LPC likely 4%
177. Don Valley North LPC likely 4%
178. Milton LPC likely 3%
179. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 2%
180. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning 2%
181. Cardigan LPC likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Bow River CPC safe
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
4. Lakeland CPC safe
5. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
6. Yellowhead CPC safe
7. Foothills CPC safe
8. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
9. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
11. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
12. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
13. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
14. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
15. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
16. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
18. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
20. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
21. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
22. Lethbridge CPC safe
23. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
25. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
26. Prince Albert CPC safe
27. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
28. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
29. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe
30. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
31. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
32. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
33. Provencher CPC safe
34. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
35. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
36. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
37. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
38. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
39. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
40. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
41. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
42. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
43. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
44. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe
45. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe
46. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe
47. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe
48. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
50. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe
51. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe
52. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe
53. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
54. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
55. Richmond Centre CPC safe
56. Oxford CPC safe
57. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe
58. Fundy Royal CPC safe
59. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe
60. Perth–Wellington CPC safe
61. York–Simcoe CPC safe
62. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe
63. Thornhill CPC safe
64. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
65. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
66. Abbotsford CPC safe
67. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe
68. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe
69. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe
70. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe
71. Huron–Bruce CPC safe
72. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe
73. Durham CPC safe
74. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe
75. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe
76. Niagara West CPC safe
77. Edmonton West CPC likely
78. Simcoe North CPC likely
79. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
80. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
81. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
82. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely
83. Brantford–Brant CPC likely
84. Carleton CPC likely
85. Steveston–Richmond East CPC likely
86. Regina–Wascana CPC likely
87. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
88. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC likely
89. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely
90. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
91. Beauce CPC likely
92. Markham–Unionville CPC likely
93. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
94. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely
95. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning
96. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning
97. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
98. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning
99. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning
100. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
101. Oshawa CPC leaning
102. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
103. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
104. Cumberland–Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC
105. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP
106. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC
107. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC
108. West Nova Toss up LPC/CPC
109. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
110. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up LPC/CPC
111. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP
112. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP
113. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
114. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP
115. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
116. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
117. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
118. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
119. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
120. Kitchener Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
121. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
123. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
124. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
125. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP
126. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
128. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC
129. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
130. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
131. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
132. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
134. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC
135. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up LPC/CPC
136. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC
137. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC
138. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
139. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP
141. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
142. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning
146. Winnipeg South LPC leaning
147. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
148. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
149. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
150. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning
151. Oakville LPC leaning
152. St. Catharines LPC leaning
153. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
154. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning
155. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
156. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
157. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning
158. York Centre LPC leaning
159. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning
160. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
161. Yukon LPC leaning
162. Malpeque LPC leaning
163. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
164. Cambridge LPC likely
165. Willowdale LPC likely
166. London West LPC likely
167. Central Nova LPC likely
168. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning
169. Vancouver South LPC likely
170. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning
171. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
172. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP
173. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC likely
174. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
175. Nepean LPC likely
176. Burlington LPC likely
177. Don Valley North LPC likely
178. Milton LPC likely
179. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
180. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning
181. Cardigan LPC likely



338Canada.com © 2016-2021