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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: November 16, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.7% ± 3.5%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection139 [103-171]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 16, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 139 [103-171] 40% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × ✓ × × × × × CPC 139 [103-171] November 16, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 10/78 ON 52/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | November 16, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.3% ▼ 39.7% ± 3.5% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.2% ▼ Probabilities % CPC November 16, 2025

Seat projection | November 16, 2025

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 103 ▼ 139 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 171 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC November 16, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Foothills CPC safe >99%
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
16. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
17. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
22. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
23. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
31. Beauce CPC safe >99%
32. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
33. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
34. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
35. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
36. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
37. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
38. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
39. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
40. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
41. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
42. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
43. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
45. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
46. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
47. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
48. Essex CPC safe >99%
49. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
50. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
51. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
52. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
53. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
54. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
55. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
56. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely >99%
57. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
58. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely >99%
59. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely >99%
60. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely >99%
62. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely >99%
63. Oxford CPC likely >99%
64. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
65. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
66. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 99%
67. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 99%
68. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 99%
69. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 99%
70. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 98%
71. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 98%
72. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 98%
73. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 98%
74. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 97%
75. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 97%
76. York Centre CPC likely 97%
77. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 97%
78. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 97%
79. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 96%
80. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 96%
81. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 96%
82. Middlesex—London CPC likely 95%
83. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 95%
84. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 94%
85. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 94%
86. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 93%
87. Niagara West CPC likely 93%
88. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 92%
89. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 91%
90. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 90%
91. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 90%
92. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 90%
93. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 89%
94. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 89%
95. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 88%
96. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 88%
97. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 87%
98. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 87%
99. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 87%
100. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 87%
101. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 86%
102. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 85%
103. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 83%
104. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 83%
105. Oshawa CPC leaning 82%
106. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 82%
107. Edmonton West CPC leaning 80%
108. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 80%
109. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 78%
110. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 78%
111. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 77%
112. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 77%
113. Niagara South CPC leaning 76%
114. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 76%
115. Simcoe North CPC leaning 75%
116. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 73%
117. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 73%
118. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 73%
119. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 71%
120. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 71%
121. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
122. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
123. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
124. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
125. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
126. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
127. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
128. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
129. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
130. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
131. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
132. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 56%
133. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
134. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
135. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
136. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 54%
137. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 53%
138. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
139. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
140. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
141. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
142. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
143. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
144. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
145. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 41%
146. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
147. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
148. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
149. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
150. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
151. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
152. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 30%
153. Brampton East LPC leaning 30%
154. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 30%
155. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 28%
156. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 27%
157. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 27%
158. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 27%
159. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 26%
160. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 25%
161. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 25%
162. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 24%
163. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 23%
164. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 22%
165. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 22%
166. Carleton LPC leaning 21%
167. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 21%
168. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 20%
169. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 20%
170. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 18%
171. Oakville East LPC leaning 18%
172. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 17%
173. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 17%
174. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 16%
175. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 16%
176. Mount Royal LPC leaning 13%
177. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 11%
178. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 10%
179. Oakville West LPC leaning 10%
180. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 10%
181. Willowdale LPC likely 9%
182. Delta LPC likely 9%
183. Labrador LPC likely 9%
184. Whitby LPC likely 8%
185. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 7%
186. Don Valley North LPC likely 6%
187. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
188. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 5%
189. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 5%
190. Etobicoke North LPC likely 5%
191. Egmont LPC likely 5%
192. Yukon LPC likely 4%
193. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 4%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 3%
195. St. Catharines LPC likely 3%
196. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
197. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
198. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 2%
199. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 2%
200. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
201. Jonquière BQ likely 1%
202. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%
203. Central Nova LPC likely 1%
204. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%