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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: May 15, 2022

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection33.5% ± 4.0%
Current number of MP's119
Current seat projection138 [105-174]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
6. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
7. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
8. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
12. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
14. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
15. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
16. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
17. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
18. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
19. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
20. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
21. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
22. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
23. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
25. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
26. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
27. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
28. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
29. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
30. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
31. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
32. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
33. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
34. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
35. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
36. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
37. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
38. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
39. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
40. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
41. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
42. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
43. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
44. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
45. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
46. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
47. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
48. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
49. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
51. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
52. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
53. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
54. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
55. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
56. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
57. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
58. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
59. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
60. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
61. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
62. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
63. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
64. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
65. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
66. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
67. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
68. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
69. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
70. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
71. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
72. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
73. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
74. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
75. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
76. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
77. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
78. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
79. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
80. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
81. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
82. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
83. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
84. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
85. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
86. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
87. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
88. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
89. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold >99%
90. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
91. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold >99%
92. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold >99%
93. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold >99%
94. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold 99%
95. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely hold 98%
96. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold 98%
97. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold 98%
98. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold 98%
99. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold 97%
100. Oshawa CPC likely hold 97%
101. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold 97%
102. Kenora CPC likely hold 95%
103. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold 95%
104. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold 94%
105. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 93%
106. Essex CPC likely hold 92%
107. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold 91%
108. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning hold 89%
109. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold 87%
110. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 87%
111. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold 84%
112. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold 83%
113. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning hold 83%
114. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold 82%
115. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 82%
116. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold 80%
117. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 80%
118. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain 79%
119. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold 79%
120. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain 79%
121. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold 76%
122. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold 75%
123. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold 74%
124. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
125. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
126. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
127. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
128. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 61%
129. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
130. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
131. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
132. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
133. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
134. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
135. London West Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
136. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
137. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
138. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
139. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
140. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
141. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
142. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
143. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
144. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
145. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
146. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 40%
147. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
148. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
149. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
150. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
151. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 32%
152. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 29%
153. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 27%
154. Nepean LPC leaning hold 26%
155. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold 25%
156. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 25%
157. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 25%
158. Jonquière BQ leaning hold 24%
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold 22%
160. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning hold 22%
161. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
162. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 20%
163. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 19%
164. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold 15%
165. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold 15%
166. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold 14%
167. Labrador LPC leaning hold 13%
168. Delta LPC leaning hold 13%
169. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold 12%
170. London North Centre LPC leaning hold 12%
171. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold 11%
172. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold 11%
173. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold 11%
174. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold 11%
175. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 11%
176. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold 10%
177. Yukon LPC leaning hold 10%
178. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold 10%
179. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold 10%
180. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 9%
181. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 9%
182. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold 8%
183. Willowdale LPC likely hold 7%
184. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 7%
185. Egmont LPC likely hold 6%
186. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 5%
187. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 5%
188. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold 5%
189. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold 4%
190. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold 4%
191. Milton LPC likely hold 4%
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold 4%
193. Waterloo LPC likely hold 3%
194. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 3%
195. Avalon LPC likely hold 3%
196. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
197. Cardigan LPC likely hold 2%
198. Brampton South LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
3. Bow River CPC safe hold
4. Lakeland CPC safe hold
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
6. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
7. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
8. Foothills CPC safe hold
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
12. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
14. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
15. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
16. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
17. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
18. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
19. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
20. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
21. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
22. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
23. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
25. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
26. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
27. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
28. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
29. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
30. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
31. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
32. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
33. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
34. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
35. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
36. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
37. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
38. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
39. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
40. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
41. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
42. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
43. Beauce CPC safe hold
44. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
45. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
46. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
47. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
48. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
49. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
51. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
52. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
53. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
54. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
55. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
56. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
57. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
58. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
59. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
60. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
61. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
62. Oxford CPC safe hold
63. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
64. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
65. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
66. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
67. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
68. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
69. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
70. Durham CPC safe hold
71. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
72. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
73. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
74. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
75. Niagara West CPC safe hold
76. Provencher CPC safe hold
77. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
78. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
79. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
80. Carleton CPC safe hold
81. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
82. Thornhill CPC safe hold
83. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
84. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
85. West Nova CPC safe hold
86. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
87. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
88. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
89. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold
90. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
91. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold
92. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold
93. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold
94. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold
95. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely hold
96. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold
97. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold
98. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold
99. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
100. Oshawa CPC likely hold
101. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
102. Kenora CPC likely hold
103. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold
104. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold
105. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
106. Essex CPC likely hold
107. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold
108. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning hold
109. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold
110. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
111. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold
112. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold
113. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning hold
114. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold
115. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
116. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold
117. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
118. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain
119. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold
120. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain
121. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold
122. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold
123. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold
124. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC
125. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
126. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC
128. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
129. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
130. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
131. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
132. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC
135. London West Toss up LPC/CPC
136. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC
137. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
138. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
140. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
141. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
142. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
146. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
147. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
151. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
152. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
153. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
154. Nepean LPC leaning hold
155. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold
156. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
157. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
158. Jonquière BQ leaning hold
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold
160. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning hold
161. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
162. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
163. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
164. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold
165. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold
166. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold
167. Labrador LPC leaning hold
168. Delta LPC leaning hold
169. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold
170. London North Centre LPC leaning hold
171. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold
172. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold
173. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold
174. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold
175. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
176. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold
177. Yukon LPC leaning hold
178. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold
179. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold
180. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
181. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
182. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold
183. Willowdale LPC likely hold
184. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
185. Egmont LPC likely hold
186. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
187. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
188. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
189. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold
190. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold
191. Milton LPC likely hold
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold
193. Waterloo LPC likely hold
194. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
195. Avalon LPC likely hold
196. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
197. Cardigan LPC likely hold
198. Brampton South LPC likely hold