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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: March 24, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection37.1% ± 4.3%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection130 [106-157]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 24, 2025 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 6.2 seat/% 130 [106-157] 37% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 130 [106-157] March 24, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 2/11 NB 3/10 QC 13/78 ON 40/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 30/37 BC 22/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | March 24, 2025

27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 32.8% ▼ 2021 33.7% 37.1% ± 4.3% ▼ Max. 41.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPC March 24, 2025

Seat projection | March 24, 2025

75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Min. 106 ▼ 2021 119 seats 130 ▼ Max. 157 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC March 24, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Foothills CPC safe >99%
8. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
11. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
12. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
13. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
14. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
15. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
16. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
17. Parkland CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Beauce CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
22. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
23. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
24. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
25. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
26. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
27. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
28. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
29. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
30. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
31. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
32. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
33. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
34. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
35. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
36. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
37. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
38. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
39. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
40. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
41. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
42. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
43. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
44. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
45. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
46. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
47. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
48. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
49. Oxford CPC safe >99%
50. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
51. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
52. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
53. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
54. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
55. Essex CPC safe >99%
56. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
57. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
58. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
59. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
60. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
61. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
62. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
63. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
64. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
65. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC safe >99%
66. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
67. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
68. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
69. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
70. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
71. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
72. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
73. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
74. Carleton CPC safe >99%
75. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
76. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
77. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
78. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely >99%
79. Provencher CPC likely >99%
80. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely >99%
81. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely >99%
82. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely >99%
83. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely >99%
84. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely >99%
85. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely >99%
86. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely >99%
87. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 99%
88. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely 99%
89. Simcoe North CPC likely 99%
90. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC likely 99%
91. Thornhill CPC likely 99%
92. Niagara West CPC likely 99%
93. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 99%
94. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC likely 99%
95. Calgary East CPC likely 98%
96. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC likely 98%
97. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 98%
98. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 98%
99. Northumberland—Clarke CPC likely 98%
100. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 97%
101. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 96%
102. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 96%
103. Kelowna CPC likely 95%
104. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 94%
105. Bay of Quinte CPC likely 93%
106. Peterborough CPC likely 91%
107. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 89%
108. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 89%
109. Beauport—Limoilou CPC leaning 84%
110. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 84%
111. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 84%
112. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 83%
113. King—Vaughan CPC leaning 83%
114. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 83%
115. Montmorency—Charlevoix CPC leaning 81%
116. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 79%
117. Edmonton West CPC leaning 75%
118. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 74%
119. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 73%
120. Niagara South CPC leaning 72%
121. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 68%
122. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
123. Edmonton Gateway Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
124. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 66%
125. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
126. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
127. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
128. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
129. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 54%
130. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
131. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 48%
132. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
133. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
134. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
135. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
136. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
137. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC 33%
138. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
139. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC leaning 25%
140. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC leaning 25%
141. York Centre LPC leaning 23%
142. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LPC leaning 23%
143. Markham—Unionville LPC leaning 22%
144. Edmonton Southeast LPC leaning 21%
145. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC leaning 21%
146. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 20%
147. London West LPC leaning 20%
148. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 20%
149. Kanata LPC leaning 19%
150. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt LPC leaning 19%
151. Cambridge LPC leaning 19%
152. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 19%
153. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 18%
154. Vaughan—Woodbridge LPC leaning 17%
155. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore LPC leaning 17%
156. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning 14%
157. Yukon LPC leaning 14%
158. Richmond Centre—Marpole LPC leaning 14%
159. Oakville East LPC leaning 11%
160. Newmarket—Aurora LPC likely 10%
161. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 9%
162. Central Newfoundland LPC likely 9%
163. St. Catharines LPC likely 8%
164. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning 8%
165. Burlington LPC likely 7%
166. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC likely 7%
167. Willowdale LPC likely 6%
168. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 5%
169. Jonquière BQ likely 5%
170. Oakville West LPC likely 5%
171. Richmond Hill South LPC likely 5%
172. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 4%
173. Long Range Mountains LPC likely 4%
174. Winnipeg West LPC likely 3%
175. Sudbury LPC likely 3%
176. Kitchener Centre GPC likely 3%
177. Malpeque LPC likely 3%
178. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ leaning 3%
179. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely 3%
180. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 3%
181. Richmond East—Steveston LPC likely 3%
182. Calgary McKnight LPC likely 2%
183. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 2%
184. Windsor West Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
185. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 2%
186. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 2%
187. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LPC likely 2%
188. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC likely 2%
189. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC likely 2%
190. Labrador LPC likely 2%
191. Whitby LPC likely 2%
192. Hamilton Mountain LPC likely 2%
193. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 2%
194. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely 2%
195. Delta LPC likely 1%
196. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC likely 1%