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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: July 21, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection42.0% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection212 [179-234]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.7 seat/% 212 [179-234] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 212 [179-234] July 21, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 4/7 PEI 1/4 NS 6/11 NB 6/10 QC 14/78 ON 91/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 36/37 BC 33/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 38.0% ▼ 42.0% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 46.0% ▼ Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | July 21, 2024

145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Majority 172 seats Min. 179 ▼ 212 ▼ Max. 234 ▼ Probabilities % CPC July 21, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Bow River CPC safe >99%
4. Foothills CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
9. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
14. Beauce CPC safe >99%
15. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
18. Calgary Shephard CPC safe >99%
19. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
20. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
21. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
23. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
24. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
25. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
26. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
29. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
30. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
31. Parkland CPC safe >99%
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
33. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
34. Carleton CPC safe >99%
35. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
36. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
37. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
38. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
39. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
40. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
41. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
42. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
43. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
44. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
45. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe >99%
46. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
47. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
48. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe >99%
49. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
50. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
51. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
52. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
53. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
54. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
55. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
56. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
57. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
58. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
59. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
60. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe >99%
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
62. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe >99%
63. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
64. Oxford CPC safe >99%
65. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
66. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe >99%
67. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe >99%
68. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
69. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe >99%
70. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
71. Middlesex—London CPC safe >99%
72. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
73. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe >99%
74. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
75. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe >99%
76. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
77. Calgary Centre CPC safe >99%
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe >99%
79. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
80. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe >99%
81. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe >99%
82. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe >99%
83. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
84. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe >99%
85. Niagara West CPC safe >99%
86. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe >99%
87. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
88. Kelowna CPC safe >99%
89. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
90. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe >99%
91. Fundy Royal CPC safe >99%
92. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
93. Simcoe North CPC safe >99%
94. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
95. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe >99%
96. Regina—Wascana CPC safe >99%
97. Saskatoon South CPC safe >99%
98. Bay of Quinte CPC safe >99%
99. Provencher CPC safe >99%
100. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe >99%
101. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
102. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
103. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe >99%
104. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
106. Peterborough CPC safe >99%
107. Calgary Confederation CPC safe >99%
108. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe >99%
109. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe >99%
110. Niagara South CPC safe >99%
111. Essex CPC safe >99%
112. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe >99%
113. Oshawa CPC safe >99%
114. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe >99%
115. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
116. Saskatoon—University CPC safe >99%
117. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe >99%
118. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe >99%
119. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe >99%
120. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe >99%
121. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe >99%
122. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
123. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe >99%
124. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe >99%
125. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe >99%
126. London West CPC safe >99%
127. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe >99%
128. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
129. York Centre CPC safe >99%
130. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe >99%
131. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe >99%
132. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe >99%
133. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
134. Cambridge CPC safe >99%
135. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe >99%
136. Delta CPC safe >99%
137. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe >99%
138. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
139. St. Catharines CPC safe >99%
140. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe >99%
141. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 99%
142. Markham—Unionville CPC likely 99%
143. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC likely 99%
144. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely 99%
145. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely 99%
146. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely 99%
147. Kanata CPC likely 99%
148. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely 99%
149. Saskatoon West CPC likely 99%
150. Oakville East CPC likely 99%
151. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 99%
152. Burlington CPC likely 99%
153. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 99%
154. Willowdale CPC likely 99%
155. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely 98%
156. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 98%
157. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 98%
158. Oakville West CPC likely 97%
159. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely 96%
160. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 96%
161. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely 95%
162. Whitby CPC likely 95%
163. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely 94%
164. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 93%
165. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely 93%
166. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely 92%
167. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely 92%
168. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely 91%
169. Sudbury CPC likely 91%
170. Nepean CPC likely 91%
171. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning 90%
172. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning 89%
173. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC leaning 89%
174. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 88%
175. Don Valley North CPC leaning 87%
176. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 86%
177. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning 86%
178. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning 86%
179. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning 84%
180. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 83%
181. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning 82%
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning 82%
183. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning 81%
184. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 81%
185. Malpeque CPC leaning 80%
186. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning 79%
187. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning 78%
188. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 77%
189. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning 74%
190. Central Nova CPC leaning 72%
191. Brampton Centre CPC leaning 70%
192. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
193. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
194. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 67%
195. Winnipeg West Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
196. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 66%
197. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
198. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
199. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
200. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP 61%
201. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 60%
202. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
203. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
204. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
205. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 56%
206. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
207. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
208. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 52%
209. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
210. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 51%
211. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
212. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 50%
213. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
214. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
215. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
216. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
217. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
218. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
219. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
220. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP 36%
221. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
222. Cardigan LPC leaning 27%
223. Ottawa South LPC leaning 25%
224. Brampton South LPC leaning 24%
225. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 23%
226. Brampton East LPC leaning 22%
227. Orléans LPC leaning 22%
228. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 22%
229. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning 20%
230. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning 18%
231. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning 16%
232. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning 12%
233. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 11%
234. Brampton West LPC leaning 11%
235. Etobicoke North LPC leaning 11%
236. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning 10%
237. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC likely 10%
238. Mount Royal LPC likely 9%
239. Ajax LPC likely 8%
240. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP likely 8%
241. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely 7%
242. Elmwood—Transcona NDP likely 7%
243. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 5%
244. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 5%
245. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 5%
246. London—Fanshawe NDP likely 4%
247. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely 4%
248. Jonquière BQ likely 4%
249. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning 3%
250. University—Rosedale LPC likely 3%
251. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely 2%
252. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely 2%
253. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
254. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely 2%
255. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely 1%
256. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Bow River CPC safe
4. Foothills CPC safe
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe
6. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
8. Lakeland CPC safe
9. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
11. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
13. Huron—Bruce CPC safe
14. Beauce CPC safe
15. Red Deer CPC safe
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
17. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
18. Calgary Shephard CPC safe
19. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
20. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
21. Lethbridge CPC safe
22. Perth—Wellington CPC safe
23. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
24. Prince Albert CPC safe
25. York—Durham CPC safe
26. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
27. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
29. Thornhill CPC safe
30. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
31. Parkland CPC safe
32. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
33. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
34. Carleton CPC safe
35. Brandon—Souris CPC safe
36. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
37. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
38. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
39. Yellowhead CPC safe
40. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
41. Riding Mountain CPC safe
42. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
43. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
44. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
45. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
46. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
47. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
48. Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
49. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
50. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
51. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
52. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
53. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
54. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
55. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
56. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
57. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
58. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
59. Calgary East CPC safe
60. Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
62. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
63. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
64. Oxford CPC safe
65. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
66. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
67. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
68. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
69. Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
70. King—Vaughan CPC safe
71. Middlesex—London CPC safe
72. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
73. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
74. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
75. South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
76. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
77. Calgary Centre CPC safe
78. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
79. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
80. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
81. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
82. Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
83. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
84. Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
85. Niagara West CPC safe
86. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
87. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
88. Kelowna CPC safe
89. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
90. Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
91. Fundy Royal CPC safe
92. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
93. Simcoe North CPC safe
94. Edmonton West CPC safe
95. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
96. Regina—Wascana CPC safe
97. Saskatoon South CPC safe
98. Bay of Quinte CPC safe
99. Provencher CPC safe
100. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
101. Calgary Skyview CPC safe
102. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
103. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
104. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
105. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
106. Peterborough CPC safe
107. Calgary Confederation CPC safe
108. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
109. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
110. Niagara South CPC safe
111. Essex CPC safe
112. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
113. Oshawa CPC safe
114. Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe
115. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
116. Saskatoon—University CPC safe
117. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
118. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
119. South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
120. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
121. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
122. Edmonton Manning CPC safe
123. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
124. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe
125. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
126. London West CPC safe
127. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
128. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
129. York Centre CPC safe
130. Edmonton Southeast CPC safe
131. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
132. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
133. North Island—Powell River CPC safe
134. Cambridge CPC safe
135. Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe
136. Delta CPC safe
137. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
138. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
139. St. Catharines CPC safe
140. Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
141. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
142. Markham—Unionville CPC likely
143. Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC likely
144. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely
145. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely
146. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely
147. Kanata CPC likely
148. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
149. Saskatoon West CPC likely
150. Oakville East CPC likely
151. Central Newfoundland CPC likely
152. Burlington CPC likely
153. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
154. Willowdale CPC likely
155. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
156. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
157. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
158. Oakville West CPC likely
159. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
160. Long Range Mountains CPC likely
161. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
162. Whitby CPC likely
163. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
164. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
165. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
166. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely
167. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
168. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely
169. Sudbury CPC likely
170. Nepean CPC likely
171. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning
172. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
173. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC leaning
174. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
175. Don Valley North CPC leaning
176. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
177. Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning
178. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
179. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning
180. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
181. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning
182. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning
183. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
184. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
185. Malpeque CPC leaning
186. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
187. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
188. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
189. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
190. Central Nova CPC leaning
191. Brampton Centre CPC leaning
192. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
193. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
194. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
195. Winnipeg West Toss up LPC/CPC
196. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
197. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
198. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP
199. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
200. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
201. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
202. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
203. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
204. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
205. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
206. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
207. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
208. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
209. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
210. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
211. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
212. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
213. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
214. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
215. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
216. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
217. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC
218. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
219. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
220. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
221. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
222. Cardigan LPC leaning
223. Ottawa South LPC leaning
224. Brampton South LPC leaning
225. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
226. Brampton East LPC leaning
227. Orléans LPC leaning
228. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
229. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
230. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
231. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning
232. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning
233. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
234. Brampton West LPC leaning
235. Etobicoke North LPC leaning
236. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning
237. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC likely
238. Mount Royal LPC likely
239. Ajax LPC likely
240. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP likely
241. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
242. Elmwood—Transcona NDP likely
243. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely
244. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
245. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely
246. London—Fanshawe NDP likely
247. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely
248. Jonquière BQ likely
249. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning
250. University—Rosedale LPC likely
251. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
252. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely
253. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
254. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
255. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
256. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely