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Last update: January 17, 2021
Leader | Erin O'Toole |
National popular vote in 2019 | 34.3% |
Current vote projection | 29.6% ± 4.1% |
Current number of MP's | 121 |
Current seat projection | 104 ± 29 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Souris–Moose Mountain | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
2. | Battle River–Crowfoot | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
3. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
4. | Bow River | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
5. | Lakeland | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
6. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
7. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
8. | Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
9. | Yellowhead | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
10. | Foothills | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
11. | Yorkton–Melville | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
12. | Red Deer–Mountain View | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
13. | Peace River–Westlock | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
14. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
15. | Red Deer–Lacombe | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
16. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
17. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
18. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
19. | Portage–Lisgar | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
20. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
21. | Prince Albert | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
22. | Calgary Shepard | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
23. | Calgary Midnapore | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
24. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
25. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
26. | Banff–Airdrie | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
27. | Calgary Heritage | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
28. | Calgary Signal Hill | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
29. | Calgary Nose Hill | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
30. | Provencher | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
31. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
32. | Brandon–Souris | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
33. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
34. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
35. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
36. | Lethbridge | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
37. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
38. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
39. | Mégantic–L'Érable | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
40. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
41. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
42. | Lévis–Lotbinière | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
43. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
44. | Cariboo–Prince George | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
45. | Regina–Qu'Appelle | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
46. | Oxford | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
47. | Sarnia–Lambton | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
48. | Haldimand–Norfolk | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
49. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
50. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
51. | Chilliwack–Hope | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
52. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
53. | Richmond–Arthabaska | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
54. | Abbotsford | ![]() |
CPC safe | >99% | |
55. | St. Albert–Edmonton | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
56. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
57. | Edmonton West | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
58. | York–Simcoe | ![]() |
CPC likely | 99% | |
59. | Perth–Wellington | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
60. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
61. | Wellington–Halton Hills | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
62. | Beauce | ![]() |
CPC likely | 98% | |
63. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | ![]() |
CPC likely | 96% | |
64. | Thornhill | ![]() |
CPC likely | 96% | |
65. | Calgary Forest Lawn | ![]() |
CPC likely | 95% | |
66. | Tobique–Mactaquac | ![]() |
CPC likely | 94% | |
67. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | ![]() |
CPC likely | 93% | |
68. | Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | ![]() |
CPC likely | 93% | |
69. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
70. | New Brunswick Southwest | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
71. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
72. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
CPC likely | 92% | |
73. | Calgary Centre | ![]() |
CPC likely | 91% | |
74. | Barrie–Innisfil | ![]() |
CPC likely | 91% | |
75. | Huron–Bruce | ![]() |
CPC likely | 90% | |
76. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | ![]() |
CPC likely | 90% | |
77. | Edmonton Riverbend | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 88% | |
78. | Durham | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% | |
79. | Calgary Confederation | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% | |
80. | Niagara West | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 86% | |
81. | Langley–Aldergrove | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 85% | |
82. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 85% | |
83. | Simcoe North | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 85% | |
84. | Fundy Royal | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 84% | |
85. | Edmonton Mill Woods | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 82% | |
86. | Simcoe–Grey | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 82% | |
87. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 80% | |
88. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 78% | |
89. | Carleton | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 78% | |
90. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 76% | |
91. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 74% | |
92. | Brantford–Brant | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 74% | |
93. | Richmond Centre | ![]() |
CPC leaning | 73% | |
94. | Markham–Unionville | ![]() |
Toss up | 70% | |
95. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
Toss up | 68% | |
96. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | ![]() |
Toss up | 68% | |
97. | Dufferin–Caledon | ![]() |
Toss up | 68% | |
98. | Regina–Wascana | ![]() |
Toss up | 67% | |
99. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | ![]() |
Toss up | 66% | |
100. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | ![]() |
Toss up | 64% | |
101. | Kelowna–Lake Country | ![]() |
Toss up | 59% | |
102. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | ![]() |
Toss up | 57% | |
103. | Kildonan–St. Paul | ![]() |
Toss up | 55% | |
104. | Kootenay–Columbia | ![]() |
Toss up | 55% | |
105. | Steveston–Richmond East | ![]() |
Toss up | 55% | |
106. | Oshawa | ![]() |
Toss up | 52% | |
107. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River | ![]() |
Toss up | 51% | |
108. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | ![]() |
Toss up | 44% | |
109. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | ![]() |
Toss up | 44% | |
110. | South Surrey–White Rock | ![]() |
Toss up | 42% | |
111. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | ![]() |
Toss up | 41% | |
112. | Essex | ![]() |
Toss up | 41% | |
113. | Northumberland–Peterborough South | ![]() |
Toss up | 37% | |
114. | Niagara Falls | ![]() |
Toss up | 35% | |
115. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
Toss up | 34% | |
116. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | ![]() |
Toss up | 30% | |
117. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 29% | |
118. | West Nova | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 28% | |
119. | Kenora | ![]() |
Toss up | 27% | |
120. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
Toss up | 25% | |
121. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
Toss up | 24% | |
122. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix | ![]() |
BQ leaning | 22% | |
123. | Beauport–Limoilou | ![]() |
Toss up | 20% | |
124. | Richmond Hill | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 19% | |
125. | Kitchener–Conestoga | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 18% | |
126. | King–Vaughan | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 15% | |
127. | Markham–Stouffville | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 13% | |
128. | Bay of Quinte | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 12% | |
129. | Kitchener South–Hespeler | ![]() |
![]() |
LPC likely | 9% |
130. | York Centre | ![]() |
LPC likely | 8% | |
131. | Fredericton | ![]() |
Toss up | 7% | |
132. | Peterborough–Kawartha | ![]() |
LPC likely | 6% | |
133. | Newmarket–Aurora | ![]() |
LPC likely | 6% | |
134. | Cloverdale–Langley City | ![]() |
LPC likely | 6% | |
135. | Niagara Centre | ![]() |
LPC leaning | 4% | |
136. | Kanata–Carleton | ![]() |
LPC likely | 4% | |
137. | Oakville | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
138. | Sault Ste. Marie | ![]() |
LPC likely | 3% | |
139. | Cumberland–Colchester | ![]() |
LPC likely | 2% | |
140. | Whitby | ![]() |
LPC likely | 2% | |
141. | St. Catharines | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
142. | Oakville North–Burlington | ![]() |
LPC likely | 1% | |
143. | Jonquière | ![]() |
BQ likely | 1% | |
144. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
Toss up | 1% | |
145. | Cambridge | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
146. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
147. | Central Nova | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
148. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | <1% |
149. | Sydney–Victoria | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
150. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
151. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
152. | Cape Breton–Canso | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
153. | Willowdale | ![]() |
LPC likely | <1% | |
154. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | ![]() |
![]() |
NDP likely | <1% |