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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: November 27, 2022

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection33.6% ± 4.1%
Current number of MP's118
Current seat projection128 [108-163]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
12. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
16. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
22. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
23. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
25. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
26. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
27. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
28. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
29. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
30. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
31. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
32. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
33. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
34. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
35. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
36. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
37. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
38. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
39. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
40. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
41. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
42. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
43. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
44. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
45. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
46. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
47. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
48. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
49. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
50. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
51. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
52. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
53. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
54. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
55. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
57. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
58. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
59. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
60. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
61. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
62. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
63. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
64. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
65. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
66. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
67. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
68. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
69. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
70. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
72. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
73. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
74. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
75. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
76. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
77. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
78. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
79. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
80. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
81. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
82. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
83. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
84. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
85. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
86. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
87. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
88. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold 99%
89. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely hold 99%
90. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold 99%
91. Edmonton West CPC likely hold 99%
92. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold 98%
93. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely hold 98%
94. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold 97%
95. Calgary Centre CPC likely hold 96%
96. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold 96%
97. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC likely hold 95%
98. Oshawa CPC likely hold 95%
99. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold 95%
100. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold 95%
101. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold 94%
102. Kenora CPC likely hold 94%
103. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold 93%
104. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold 93%
105. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold 92%
106. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 92%
107. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold 92%
108. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold 91%
109. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 89%
110. Essex CPC leaning hold 88%
111. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold 88%
112. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold 87%
113. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold 80%
114. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold 80%
115. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 80%
116. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold 76%
117. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold 76%
118. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 71%
119. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
120. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
121. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
122. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
123. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 66%
124. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
125. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
126. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
127. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 59%
128. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
129. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
130. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP 48%
131. Skeena–Bulkley Valley Toss up CPC/NDP 47%
132. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
133. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
134. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
135. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
136. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
137. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP 43%
138. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
139. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
140. London West Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
141. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
142. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
143. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
144. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
145. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
146. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
147. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
148. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
149. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
150. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 28%
151. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning hold 27%
152. York Centre LPC leaning hold 27%
153. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold 25%
154. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 23%
155. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 23%
156. Jonquière BQ leaning hold 23%
157. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold 20%
158. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold 20%
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold 16%
160. Nepean LPC leaning hold 15%
161. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold 15%
162. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 15%
163. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 14%
164. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning hold 14%
165. Courtenay–Alberni NDP leaning hold 14%
166. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold 13%
167. Sudbury LPC leaning hold 13%
168. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 12%
169. Nickel Belt LPC leaning hold 10%
170. Labrador LPC leaning hold 9%
171. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold 8%
172. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold 7%
173. Delta LPC likely hold 7%
174. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold 7%
175. London North Centre LPC leaning hold 6%
176. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold 6%
177. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold 6%
178. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold 6%
179. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold 5%
180. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold 5%
181. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 5%
182. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
183. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold 4%
184. Egmont LPC likely hold 4%
185. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold 4%
186. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 3%
187. Willowdale LPC likely hold 3%
188. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold 3%
189. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 3%
190. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold 3%
191. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold 2%
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold 2%
193. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 2%
194. Milton LPC likely hold 2%
195. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold 2%
196. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold 1%
197. Avalon LPC likely hold 1%
198. Waterloo LPC likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
4. Bow River CPC safe hold
5. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
10. Foothills CPC safe hold
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
12. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
14. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
16. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
17. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
19. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
20. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
22. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
23. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
24. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
25. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
26. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
27. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
28. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
29. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
30. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
31. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
32. Beauce CPC safe hold
33. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
34. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
35. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
36. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
37. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
38. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
39. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
40. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
41. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
42. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
43. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
44. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
45. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
46. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
47. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
48. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
49. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
50. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
51. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
52. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
53. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
54. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
55. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
56. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
57. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
58. Oxford CPC safe hold
59. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
60. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
61. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
62. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
63. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
64. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
65. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
66. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
67. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
68. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
69. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
70. Provencher CPC safe hold
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
72. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
73. Durham CPC safe hold
74. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
75. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
76. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
77. Niagara West CPC safe hold
78. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
79. Carleton CPC safe hold
80. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
81. Thornhill CPC safe hold
82. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
83. West Nova CPC safe hold
84. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
85. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
86. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
87. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
88. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold
89. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely hold
90. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold
91. Edmonton West CPC likely hold
92. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold
93. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely hold
94. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold
95. Calgary Centre CPC likely hold
96. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold
97. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC likely hold
98. Oshawa CPC likely hold
99. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold
100. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold
101. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold
102. Kenora CPC likely hold
103. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
104. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
105. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold
106. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
107. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold
108. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold
109. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
110. Essex CPC leaning hold
111. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold
112. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold
113. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold
114. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold
115. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
116. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold
117. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold
118. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
119. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
120. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
121. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
123. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
124. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC
125. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP
126. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP
127. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
128. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
129. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
130. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP
131. Skeena–Bulkley Valley Toss up CPC/NDP
132. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
135. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
136. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
137. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP
138. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC
140. London West Toss up LPC/CPC
141. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
142. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC
146. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
151. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning hold
152. York Centre LPC leaning hold
153. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold
154. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
155. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
156. Jonquière BQ leaning hold
157. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold
158. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold
160. Nepean LPC leaning hold
161. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold
162. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
163. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
164. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning hold
165. Courtenay–Alberni NDP leaning hold
166. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold
167. Sudbury LPC leaning hold
168. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
169. Nickel Belt LPC leaning hold
170. Labrador LPC leaning hold
171. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold
172. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold
173. Delta LPC likely hold
174. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold
175. London North Centre LPC leaning hold
176. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold
177. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold
178. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold
179. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold
180. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold
181. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
182. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
183. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold
184. Egmont LPC likely hold
185. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold
186. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
187. Willowdale LPC likely hold
188. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
189. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
190. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold
191. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold
192. Central Nova LPC likely hold
193. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
194. Milton LPC likely hold
195. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold
196. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold
197. Avalon LPC likely hold
198. Waterloo LPC likely hold