Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: October 4, 2026

Leader	Pierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 2025	41.3%
Current vote projection	32.2% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPs	138
Current seat projection	72 [44-110]

Infolettre Qc125

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Vote projection | October 4, 2026

Seat projection | October 4, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs		Current party	Projection
1.	Souris—Moose Mountain Steven Bonk		C	CPC safe
2.	Grande Prairie Chris Warkentin		C	CPC safe
3.	Lakeland Shannon Stubbs		C	CPC safe
4.	Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Laila Goodridge		C	CPC safe
5.	Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Jeremy Patzer		C	CPC safe
6.	Bow River David Bexte		C	CPC safe
7.	Battle River—Crowfoot Pierre Poilievre		C	CPC safe
8.	Foothills John Barlow		C	CPC safe
9.	Peace River—Westlock Arnold Viersen		C	CPC safe
10.	Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Glen Motz		C	CPC safe
11.	Parkland Dane Lloyd		C	CPC safe
12.	Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Kelly Block		C	CPC safe
13.	Leduc—Wetaskiwin Mike Lake		C	CPC safe
14.	Yorkton—Melville Vacant			CPC safe
15.	Ponoka—Didsbury Blaine Calkins		C	CPC safe
16.	Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Rosemarie Falk		C	CPC safe
17.	Red Deer Burton Bailey		C	CPC safe
18.	Airdrie—Cochrane Blake Richards		C	CPC safe
19.	Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Fraser Tolmie		C	CPC safe
20.	Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Bob Zimmer		C	CPC safe
21.	Yellowhead William Stevenson		C	CPC safe
22.	Prince Albert Randy Hoback		C	CPC safe
23.	Portage—Lisgar Branden Leslie		C	CPC safe
24.	Riding Mountain Dan Mazier		C	CPC safe
25.	Beauce Jason Groleau		C	CPC safe
26.	Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière Luc Berthold		C	CPC safe
27.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis		C	CPC safe
28.	Calgary Shepard Tom Kmiec		C	CPC safe
29.	Provencher Ted Falk		C	CPC safe
30.	Brandon—Souris Grant Jackson		C	CPC safe
31.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer		C	CPC safe
32.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper		C	CPC likely
33.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie		C	CPC likely
34.	Cariboo—Prince George Todd Doherty		C	CPC likely
35.	Thornhill Melissa Lantsman		C	CPC likely
36.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin		C	CPC likely
37.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan		C	CPC likely
38.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas		C	CPC likely
39.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien		C	CPC likely
40.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan		C	CPC likely
41.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon		C	CPC likely
42.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC likely
43.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde		C	CPC likely
44.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp		C	CPC likely
45.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison		C	CPC likely
46.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux		C	CPC leaning
47.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts		C	CPC leaning
48.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback		C	CPC leaning
49.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie		C	CPC leaning
50.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis		C	CPC leaning
51.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner		C	CPC leaning
52.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl		C	CPC leaning
53.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson		C	CPC leaning
54.	Calgary Crowfoot Pat Kelly		C	CPC leaning
55.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp		C	CPC leaning
56.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin		C	CPC leaning
57.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis		C	CPC leaning
58.	Essex Chris Lewis		C	CPC leaning
59.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal		C	CPC leaning
60.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
61.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
62.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
63.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
64.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
65.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
66.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
67.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
68.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
69.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
70.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
71.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
72.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
73.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
74.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
75.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
76.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
77.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte		C	Toss up CPC/NDP
78.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
79.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
80.	Oxford Arpan Khanna		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
81.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
82.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
83.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
84.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
85.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
86.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
87.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor		C	LPC leaning
88.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram		C	LPC leaning
89.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley		C	LPC leaning
90.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff		C	LPC leaning
91.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo		C	LPC leaning
92.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds		C	NDP leaning
93.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta		C	LPC leaning
94.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley		C	LPC leaning
95.	Perth—Wellington John Nater		C	LPC leaning
96.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis		C	LPC leaning
97.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys		C	LPC leaning
98.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC leaning
99.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb		C	LPC leaning
100.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock		C	LPC leaning
101.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson		C	LPC leaning
102.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas		C	LPC leaning
103.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross		C	NDP leaning
104.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis		C	LPC leaning
105.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette		C	LPC leaning
106.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley		C	LPC leaning
107.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho		C	LPC leaning
108.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho		C	LPC leaning
109.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill		C	LPC leaning
110.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall		C	LPC leaning
111.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong		C	LPC leaning
112.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison		C	LPC leaning
113.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au		C	LPC leaning
114.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger		C	LPC leaning
115.	Niagara West Dean Allison		C	LPC leaning
116.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc		C	LPC leaning
117.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland		C	LPC leaning
118.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson		C	LPC leaning
119.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz		C	LPC likely
120.	York Centre Roman Baber		C	LPC likely
121.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe		C	LPC likely
122.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid		C	LPC likely
123.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder		C	Toss up LPC/GPC
124.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton		C	LPC likely
125.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani		C	LPC likely
126.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn		C	NDP leaning
127.	Cambridge Connie Cody		C	LPC likely
128.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill		C	LPC likely
129.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers		C	LPC likely
130.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett		C	LPC likely
131.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen		C	LPC likely
132.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman		C	Toss up LPC/NDP
133.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli		C	LPC likely
134.	Labrador Philip Earle		L	LPC likely
135.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton		C	LPC likely
136.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle		L	LPC likely
137.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC likely
138.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill		C	Toss up LPC/NDP
139.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan		L	LPC likely
140.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble		C	Toss up LPC/NDP
141.	Niagara South Fred Davies		C	LPC likely
142.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena		C	LPC likely
143.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey		L	LPC likely
144.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence		C	LPC likely
145.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC likely
146.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr		L	LPC likely
147.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss		C	LPC likely
148.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains		L	LPC likely
149.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini		L	LPC likely
150.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi		L	LPC likely
151.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu		L	LPC likely
152.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste		L	LPC likely
153.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota		L	LPC likely
154.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai		L	LPC likely
155.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal		L	LPC likely
156.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen		L	LPC likely
157.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis		L	LPC likely
158.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen		L	LPC likely
159.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer		L	LPC likely
160.	Central Nova Sean Fraser		L	LPC likely
161.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon		L	LPC likely
162.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli		C	LPC likely
163.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu		L	LPC likely
164.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali		L	LPC likely
165.	Nunavut Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]		L	Toss up LPC/NDP
166.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort		L	LPC likely
167.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan		L	LPC likely
168.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns		N	NDP likely
169.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski		L	LPC likely
170.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang		L	LPC likely
171.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski		L	LPC safe
172.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca		L	LPC safe
173.	Jonquière Mario Simard		B	BQ likely
174.	Oakville East Anita Anand		L	LPC safe
175.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty		L	LPC safe
176.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro		L	LPC safe
177.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek		L	LPC safe
178.	Cardigan Kent McDonald		L	LPC safe
179.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez		L	LPC safe
180.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette		L	LPC safe
181.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie		L	LPC likely
182.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy		L	LPC safe
183.	Delta Jill McKnight		L	LPC safe
184.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather		L	LPC safe
185.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault		L	LPC safe
186.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry		L	LPC safe
187.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner		L	LPC safe
188.	Yukon Brendan Hanley		L	LPC safe
189.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald		L	LPC safe
190.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky		L	LPC leaning
191.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway		L	LPC safe
192.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull		L	LPC safe
193.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi		L	LPC safe
194.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi		L	LPC safe