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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: April 14, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection41.6% ± 3.6%
Current number of MP's118
Current seat projection206 [180-227]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 170 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.4 seat/% 206 [180-227] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 206 [180-227] April 14, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 3/4 NS 8/11 NB 6/10 QC 13/78 ON 86/121 MB 7/14 SK 14/14 AB 32/34 BC 31/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 38.0% 41.6% ± 3.6% Max. 45.3% Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | April 14, 2024

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Majority 170 seats Min. 180 206 Max. 227 Probabilities % CPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
5. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
11. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
12. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
13. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
19. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
20. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
22. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
24. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
29. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
30. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
31. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
32. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
33. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
34. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
35. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
36. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
37. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
38. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
39. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
41. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
42. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
43. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
44. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
45. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
46. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
47. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
48. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
49. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
50. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
51. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
52. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
53. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
54. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
55. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
56. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
57. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
58. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
59. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
60. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
61. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
62. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
63. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold >99%
64. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
65. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
66. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
67. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
68. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
69. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
71. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
72. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
73. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
74. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold >99%
76. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
77. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
78. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
79. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold >99%
80. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
81. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
82. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
83. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold >99%
84. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold >99%
85. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
86. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
87. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
88. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
89. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold >99%
90. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
91. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
92. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold >99%
93. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
94. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold >99%
95. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
96. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
97. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
98. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold >99%
99. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold >99%
100. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold >99%
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold >99%
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold >99%
103. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
104. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold >99%
105. Essex CPC safe hold >99%
106. Oshawa CPC safe hold >99%
107. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold >99%
108. Kenora CPC safe hold >99%
109. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain >99%
110. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold >99%
111. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain >99%
112. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
113. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
114. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain >99%
115. Cambridge CPC safe gain >99%
116. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold >99%
117. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain >99%
118. St. Catharines CPC safe gain >99%
119. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain >99%
120. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold >99%
121. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold >99%
122. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain >99%
123. London West CPC safe gain >99%
124. Fredericton CPC safe gain >99%
125. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain >99%
126. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain >99%
127. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain >99%
128. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain >99%
129. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain >99%
130. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC safe gain >99%
131. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain >99%
132. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold >99%
133. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC likely gain 100%
134. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain 99%
135. Oakville CPC likely gain 99%
136. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain 99%
137. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain 99%
138. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 99%
139. Sudbury CPC likely gain 99%
140. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain 99%
141. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
142. Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
143. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 99%
144. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 99%
145. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 99%
146. Whitby CPC likely gain 98%
147. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 98%
148. York Centre CPC likely gain 98%
149. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 97%
150. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 97%
151. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain 97%
152. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 97%
153. Nepean CPC likely gain 96%
154. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 96%
155. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 96%
156. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain 96%
157. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 96%
158. London North Centre CPC likely gain 96%
159. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC likely gain 96%
160. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 96%
161. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 95%
162. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain 95%
163. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 94%
164. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain 94%
165. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 93%
166. Malpeque CPC likely gain 92%
167. Delta CPC likely gain 92%
168. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain 92%
169. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 91%
170. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain 90%
171. Courtenay–Alberni CPC likely gain 90%
172. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 89%
173. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 89%
174. Waterloo CPC leaning gain 89%
175. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain 89%
176. Avalon CPC leaning gain 88%
177. Central Nova CPC leaning gain 88%
178. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain 88%
179. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain 87%
180. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain 87%
181. Willowdale CPC leaning gain 86%
182. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 85%
183. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 84%
184. Guelph CPC leaning gain 83%
185. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 83%
186. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 82%
187. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 82%
188. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 79%
189. Labrador CPC leaning gain 79%
190. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 79%
191. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 79%
192. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 77%
193. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain 72%
194. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain 72%
195. Egmont CPC leaning gain 71%
196. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
197. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
198. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP 69%
199. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
200. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
202. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
203. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
204. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 64%
205. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
206. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 51%
207. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
208. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
209. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
210. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
211. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
212. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing Toss up CPC/NDP 38%
213. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
214. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 32%
215. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold 30%
216. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 27%
217. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold 24%
218. Jonquière BQ leaning hold 21%
219. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold 20%
220. Winnipeg South LPC leaning hold 20%
221. Brampton West LPC leaning hold 19%
222. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 19%
223. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 17%
224. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 17%
225. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 16%
226. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 15%
227. Pontiac LPC leaning hold 11%
228. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 10%
229. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold 7%
230. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 7%
231. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 7%
232. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold 7%
233. Ajax LPC likely hold 6%
234. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 6%
235. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain 6%
236. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
237. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
238. Halifax West LPC likely hold 4%
239. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 3%
240. London–Fanshawe NDP likely hold 2%
241. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ 2%
242. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 2%
243. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 2%
244. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Bow River CPC safe hold
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
5. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
10. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
11. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
12. Foothills CPC safe hold
13. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
18. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
19. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
20. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
22. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
24. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
25. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
26. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
29. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
30. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
31. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
32. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
33. Beauce CPC safe hold
34. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
35. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
36. Carleton CPC safe hold
37. Thornhill CPC safe hold
38. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
39. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
41. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
42. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
43. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
44. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
45. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
46. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
47. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
48. West Nova CPC safe hold
49. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
50. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
51. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
52. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
53. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
54. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
55. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
56. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
57. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
58. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
59. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
60. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
61. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
62. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
63. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold
64. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
65. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
66. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
67. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
68. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
69. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
71. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
72. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
73. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
74. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold
76. Niagara West CPC safe hold
77. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
78. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
79. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold
80. Durham CPC safe hold
81. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
82. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
83. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
84. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold
85. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
86. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
87. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
88. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
89. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold
90. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
91. Oxford CPC safe hold
92. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
93. Provencher CPC safe hold
94. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
95. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
96. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
97. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
98. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
99. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
100. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold
103. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold
104. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold
105. Essex CPC safe hold
106. Oshawa CPC safe hold
107. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold
108. Kenora CPC safe hold
109. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain
110. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold
111. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain
112. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
113. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
114. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain
115. Cambridge CPC safe gain
116. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold
117. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain
118. St. Catharines CPC safe gain
119. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain
120. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold
121. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold
122. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain
123. London West CPC safe gain
124. Fredericton CPC safe gain
125. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain
126. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain
127. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain
128. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain
129. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain
130. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC safe gain
131. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain
132. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold
133. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC likely gain
134. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain
135. Oakville CPC likely gain
136. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain
137. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain
138. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain
139. Sudbury CPC likely gain
140. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain
141. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
142. Burlington CPC likely gain
143. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
144. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
145. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
146. Whitby CPC likely gain
147. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
148. York Centre CPC likely gain
149. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
150. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
151. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain
152. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
153. Nepean CPC likely gain
154. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
155. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
156. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain
157. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
158. London North Centre CPC likely gain
159. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC likely gain
160. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
161. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
162. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain
163. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
164. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
165. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
166. Malpeque CPC likely gain
167. Delta CPC likely gain
168. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain
169. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
170. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
171. Courtenay–Alberni CPC likely gain
172. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
173. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
174. Waterloo CPC leaning gain
175. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain
176. Avalon CPC leaning gain
177. Central Nova CPC leaning gain
178. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain
179. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
180. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain
181. Willowdale CPC leaning gain
182. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
183. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
184. Guelph CPC leaning gain
185. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
186. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
187. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
188. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
189. Labrador CPC leaning gain
190. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
191. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
192. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
193. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
194. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain
195. Egmont CPC leaning gain
196. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
197. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
198. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
199. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
200. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
202. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
203. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC
204. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
205. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
206. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
207. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
208. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
209. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
210. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
211. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
212. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing Toss up CPC/NDP
213. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
214. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
215. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold
216. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
217. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold
218. Jonquière BQ leaning hold
219. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold
220. Winnipeg South LPC leaning hold
221. Brampton West LPC leaning hold
222. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
223. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
224. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
225. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
226. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
227. Pontiac LPC leaning hold
228. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
229. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
230. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
231. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
232. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
233. Ajax LPC likely hold
234. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
235. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain
236. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
237. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
238. Halifax West LPC likely hold
239. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
240. London–Fanshawe NDP likely hold
241. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
242. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
243. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
244. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold