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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: April 30, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection41.4% ± 0.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection143 [143-143]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 30, 2025 160 150 140 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.1 seat/% 143 [143-143] 41% ± 0% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 143 [143-143] April 30, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 1/11 NB 4/10 QC 11/78 ON 52/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 30, 2025

41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % CPC April 30, 2025

Seat projection | April 30, 2025

145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Probabilities % CPC April 30, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
8. Bow River CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
18. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
19. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
20. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
21. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
25. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
26. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
29. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
30. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
31. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
32. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
33. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
34. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
35. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
37. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
38. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
39. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
40. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
41. Beauce CPC safe >99%
42. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
43. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
44. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
45. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
46. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
47. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
48. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
50. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
51. Essex CPC safe >99%
52. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
53. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
54. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
55. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
56. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
57. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
58. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
59. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
60. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
61. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
62. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
63. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
64. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
65. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
66. Edmonton Northwest CPC safe >99%
67. Oxford CPC safe >99%
68. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
69. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe >99%
70. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe >99%
71. Edmonton West CPC safe >99%
72. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
73. Edmonton Gateway CPC safe >99%
74. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
75. Perth—Wellington CPC likely >99%
76. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely >99%
77. Huron—Bruce CPC likely >99%
78. Fundy Royal CPC likely >99%
79. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely >99%
80. London—Fanshawe CPC likely >99%
81. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely >99%
82. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely >99%
83. Middlesex—London CPC likely >99%
84. York Centre CPC likely 99%
85. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 99%
86. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 99%
87. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 99%
88. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 99%
89. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 99%
90. Niagara West CPC likely 99%
91. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 99%
92. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 99%
93. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 99%
94. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 99%
95. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 98%
96. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 98%
97. Windsor West CPC likely 98%
98. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 98%
99. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 98%
100. Saskatoon South CPC likely 98%
101. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 98%
102. North Island—Powell River CPC likely 97%
103. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 97%
104. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 97%
105. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 97%
106. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 97%
107. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 96%
108. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 96%
109. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 95%
110. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 95%
111. Elmwood—Transcona CPC likely 95%
112. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 94%
113. Regina—Lewvan CPC likely 94%
114. Oshawa CPC likely 94%
115. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC likely 93%
116. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 92%
117. Regina—Wascana CPC likely 91%
118. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 90%
119. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 89%
120. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 88%
121. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 88%
122. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 87%
123. Niagara South CPC leaning 87%
124. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 87%
125. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 86%
126. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 83%
127. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 81%
128. Simcoe North CPC leaning 81%
129. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 78%
130. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC leaning 75%
131. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 73%
132. Cambridge CPC leaning 73%
133. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning 72%
134. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 71%
135. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
136. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
137. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
138. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 64%
139. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 63%
140. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
141. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
142. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 57%
143. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
144. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
145. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
146. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
147. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
148. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
149. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
150. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
151. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
152. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
153. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
154. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
155. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 29%
156. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 28%
157. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 23%
158. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 21%
159. Brampton East LPC leaning 21%
160. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 20%
161. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 20%
162. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 19%
163. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 19%
164. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 18%
165. Labrador LPC leaning 17%
166. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 15%
167. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 15%
168. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 12%
169. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning 12%
170. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 11%
171. Egmont LPC leaning 11%
172. Carleton LPC leaning 10%
173. Oakville East LPC likely 9%
174. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 8%
175. Bay of Quinte LPC likely 8%
176. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 7%
177. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 7%
178. Courtenay—Alberni NDP likely 6%
179. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 6%
180. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 5%
181. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
182. Oakville West LPC likely 3%
183. Central Nova LPC likely 2%
184. Delta LPC likely 2%
185. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 2%
186. Willowdale LPC likely 2%
187. Hamilton Centre LPC likely 2%
188. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 2%
189. Whitby LPC likely 2%
190. Yukon LPC likely 2%
191. Don Valley North LPC likely 1%
192. Mount Royal LPC likely 1%
193. Etobicoke North LPC likely 1%