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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: August 14, 2022

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection32.8% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's119
Current seat projection135 [103-167]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
5. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
6. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
12. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
13. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
16. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
19. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
20. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
21. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
24. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
25. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
26. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
27. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
28. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
29. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
30. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
31. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
32. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
33. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
34. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
35. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
36. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
37. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
38. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
39. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
40. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
41. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
42. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
43. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
44. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
46. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
47. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
48. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
49. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
51. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
52. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
53. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
54. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
55. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
56. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
57. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
58. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
59. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
60. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
61. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
62. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
63. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
64. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
65. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
66. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
67. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
68. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
69. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
70. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
71. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
72. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
73. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
74. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
75. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
76. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
77. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
78. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
79. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
80. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
81. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
82. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
83. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
84. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
85. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
86. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
87. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold 99%
88. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely hold 99%
89. Edmonton West CPC likely hold 99%
90. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely hold 99%
91. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold 98%
92. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold 98%
93. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold 98%
94. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold 98%
95. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold 98%
96. Calgary Centre CPC likely hold 98%
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold 97%
98. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold 97%
99. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold 96%
100. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold 96%
101. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold 95%
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold 94%
103. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold 94%
104. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold 91%
105. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 91%
106. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold 89%
107. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold 84%
108. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold 84%
109. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 83%
110. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold 81%
111. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold 81%
112. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain 80%
113. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain 80%
114. Oshawa CPC leaning hold 79%
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold 79%
116. Kenora CPC leaning hold 79%
117. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 77%
118. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold 77%
119. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold 72%
120. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
121. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 64%
122. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
123. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP 63%
124. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
125. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP 62%
126. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
127. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
128. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
129. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
130. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
131. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
132. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
133. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
134. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 48%
135. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
136. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 47%
137. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
138. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
139. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 46%
140. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
141. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
142. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
143. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
144. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 38%
145. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP 34%
146. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
147. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 33%
148. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
149. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold 30%
150. Nepean LPC leaning hold 26%
151. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 26%
152. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold 26%
153. Richmond Centre LPC leaning hold 23%
154. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning hold 22%
155. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 21%
156. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
157. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold 19%
158. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold 19%
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold 19%
160. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold 17%
161. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold 16%
162. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold 15%
163. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
164. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold 12%
165. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
166. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold 11%
167. Labrador LPC leaning hold 11%
168. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 11%
169. Jonquière BQ leaning hold 10%
170. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 9%
171. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP 9%
172. Yukon LPC leaning hold 8%
173. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold 8%
174. Willowdale LPC likely hold 7%
175. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold 7%
176. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 7%
177. Calgary Skyview LPC likely hold 7%
178. London North Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 7%
179. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 5%
180. Egmont LPC likely hold 4%
181. Milton LPC likely hold 4%
182. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 4%
183. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold 4%
184. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold 3%
185. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning hold 3%
186. Delta LPC likely hold 3%
187. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold 3%
188. Waterloo LPC likely hold 3%
189. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold 3%
190. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold 3%
191. Central Nova LPC likely hold 3%
192. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold 2%
193. Windsor–Tecumseh NDP leaning gain 2%
194. Avalon LPC likely hold 2%
195. Brampton South LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
3. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
4. Bow River CPC safe hold
5. Lakeland CPC safe hold
6. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
10. Foothills CPC safe hold
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
12. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
13. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
15. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
16. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
19. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
20. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
21. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
24. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
25. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
26. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
27. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
28. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
29. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
30. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
31. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
32. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
33. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
34. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
35. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
36. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
37. Beauce CPC safe hold
38. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
39. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
40. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
41. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
42. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
43. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
44. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
46. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
47. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
48. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
49. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
50. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
51. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
52. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
53. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
54. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
55. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
56. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
57. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
58. Oxford CPC safe hold
59. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
60. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
61. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
62. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
63. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
64. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
65. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
66. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
67. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
68. Durham CPC safe hold
69. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
70. Provencher CPC safe hold
71. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
72. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
73. Thornhill CPC safe hold
74. Carleton CPC safe hold
75. Niagara West CPC safe hold
76. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
77. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
78. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
79. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
80. West Nova CPC safe hold
81. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
82. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
83. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
84. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
85. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
86. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
87. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold
88. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely hold
89. Edmonton West CPC likely hold
90. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely hold
91. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold
92. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold
93. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold
94. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold
95. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold
96. Calgary Centre CPC likely hold
97. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
98. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
99. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold
100. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely hold
101. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely hold
103. Calgary Confederation CPC likely hold
104. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold
105. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
106. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold
107. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold
108. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold
109. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
110. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold
111. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold
112. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain
113. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain
114. Oshawa CPC leaning hold
115. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC leaning hold
116. Kenora CPC leaning hold
117. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
118. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold
119. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold
120. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
121. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
122. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC
123. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP
124. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
125. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP
126. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
128. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
129. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC
130. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC
131. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
132. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
135. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
136. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
137. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
138. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
139. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
140. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
141. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
142. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
145. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP
146. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
148. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold
150. Nepean LPC leaning hold
151. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
152. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold
153. Richmond Centre LPC leaning hold
154. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning hold
155. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
156. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
157. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold
158. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold
159. Malpeque LPC leaning hold
160. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold
161. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold
162. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold
163. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
164. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold
165. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
166. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold
167. Labrador LPC leaning hold
168. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
169. Jonquière BQ leaning hold
170. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
171. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP
172. Yukon LPC leaning hold
173. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold
174. Willowdale LPC likely hold
175. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold
176. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
177. Calgary Skyview LPC likely hold
178. London North Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
179. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
180. Egmont LPC likely hold
181. Milton LPC likely hold
182. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
183. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold
184. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold
185. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning hold
186. Delta LPC likely hold
187. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold
188. Waterloo LPC likely hold
189. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold
190. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold
191. Central Nova LPC likely hold
192. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold
193. Windsor–Tecumseh NDP leaning gain
194. Avalon LPC likely hold
195. Brampton South LPC likely hold