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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: May 18, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection41.4% ± 2.1%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection143 [124-163]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 18, 2025 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.5 seat/% 143 [124-163] 41% ± 2% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 143 [124-163] May 18, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 3/7 PEI 0/4 NS 1/11 NB 4/10 QC 11/78 ON 52/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | May 18, 2025

37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 39.3% ▼ 41.4% ± 2.1% ▼ Max. 43.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPC May 18, 2025

Seat projection | May 18, 2025

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2021 119 seats Min. 124 ▼ 143 ▼ Max. 163 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC May 18, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
3. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
4. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
5. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
8. Bow River CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
12. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
18. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
19. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
20. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
21. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
25. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
26. Provencher CPC safe >99%
27. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
29. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
30. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
31. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
32. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
33. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
34. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
35. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
37. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
38. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
39. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
40. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
41. Beauce CPC safe >99%
42. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
43. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
44. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe >99%
45. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
46. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
47. Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
48. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
50. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
51. Essex CPC safe >99%
52. Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe >99%
53. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
54. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
55. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
56. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
57. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
58. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
59. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
60. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
61. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
62. Calgary Skyview CPC safe >99%
63. Edmonton Manning CPC safe >99%
64. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
65. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
66. York—Durham CPC safe >99%
67. Oxford CPC safe >99%
68. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely >99%
69. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely >99%
70. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely >99%
71. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely >99%
72. Edmonton West CPC likely >99%
73. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely >99%
74. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely >99%
75. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely >99%
76. Perth—Wellington CPC likely >99%
77. Fundy Royal CPC likely 99%
78. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 99%
79. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely 99%
80. London—Fanshawe CPC likely 99%
81. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 99%
82. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 99%
83. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 99%
84. York Centre CPC likely 99%
85. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 99%
86. Middlesex—London CPC likely 98%
87. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 98%
88. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 98%
89. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 98%
90. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 98%
91. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 98%
92. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 98%
93. Niagara West CPC likely 97%
94. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 97%
95. Windsor West CPC likely 97%
96. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 97%
97. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 96%
98. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 96%
99. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 96%
100. Saskatoon South CPC likely 96%
101. North Island—Powell River CPC likely 95%
102. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 95%
103. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 95%
104. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 95%
105. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 95%
106. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 94%
107. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 94%
108. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 93%
109. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 93%
110. Elmwood—Transcona CPC likely 93%
111. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 93%
112. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 92%
113. Regina—Lewvan CPC likely 92%
114. Oshawa CPC leaning 90%
115. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 89%
116. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 89%
117. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 88%
118. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 87%
119. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 85%
120. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 85%
121. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 84%
122. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 83%
123. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 83%
124. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 82%
125. Niagara South CPC leaning 82%
126. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 79%
127. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 78%
128. Simcoe North CPC leaning 77%
129. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 74%
130. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC leaning 73%
131. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 70%
132. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
133. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
134. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
135. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
136. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
137. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
138. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 62%
139. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 61%
140. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
141. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
142. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 55%
143. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
144. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
145. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
146. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
147. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
148. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
149. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
150. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
151. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
152. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
153. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
154. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
155. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
156. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
157. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 25%
158. Brampton East LPC leaning 24%
159. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 24%
160. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 24%
161. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 23%
162. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 22%
163. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 22%
164. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 21%
165. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 19%
166. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 18%
167. Labrador LPC leaning 18%
168. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 17%
169. Carleton LPC leaning 16%
170. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 15%
171. Oakville East LPC leaning 14%
172. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning 13%
173. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 12%
174. Egmont LPC leaning 12%
175. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 12%
176. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 10%
177. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 10%
178. Courtenay—Alberni NDP likely 9%
179. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 8%
180. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 8%
181. Oakville West LPC likely 6%
182. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 5%
183. Delta LPC likely 5%
184. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 5%
185. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 4%
186. Central Nova LPC likely 4%
187. Willowdale LPC likely 4%
188. Whitby LPC likely 3%
189. Hamilton Centre LPC likely 3%
190. Don Valley North LPC likely 3%
191. Mount Royal LPC likely 3%
192. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 2%
193. Etobicoke North LPC likely 2%
194. Yukon LPC likely 2%
195. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 2%
196. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 1%
197. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 1%
198. Jonquière BQ likely 1%
199. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 1%