338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada





Last update: January 17, 2021

LeaderErin O'Toole
National popular vote in 201934.3%
Current vote projection29.6% ± 4.1%
Current number of MP's121
Current seat projection104 ± 29



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe >99%
4. Bow River CPC safe >99%
5. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
6. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe >99%
7. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe >99%
12. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe >99%
13. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe >99%
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe >99%
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe >99%
17. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe >99%
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe >99%
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe >99%
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
25. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe >99%
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe >99%
30. Provencher CPC safe >99%
31. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe >99%
32. Brandon–Souris CPC safe >99%
33. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe >99%
34. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe >99%
35. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe >99%
36. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
37. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe >99%
38. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe >99%
39. Mégantic–L'Érable CPC safe >99%
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe >99%
41. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe >99%
42. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
43. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
44. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe >99%
45. Regina–Qu'Appelle CPC safe >99%
46. Oxford CPC safe >99%
47. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe >99%
48. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe >99%
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe >99%
50. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe >99%
51. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe >99%
52. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe >99%
53. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
54. Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
55. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely 99%
56. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC likely 99%
57. Edmonton West CPC likely 99%
58. York–Simcoe CPC likely 99%
59. Perth–Wellington CPC likely 98%
60. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely 98%
61. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely 98%
62. Beauce CPC likely 98%
63. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 96%
64. Thornhill CPC likely 96%
65. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 95%
66. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 94%
67. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 93%
68. Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 93%
69. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 92%
70. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 92%
71. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely 92%
72. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 92%
73. Calgary Centre CPC likely 91%
74. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 91%
75. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 90%
76. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 90%
77. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 88%
78. Durham CPC leaning 86%
79. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 86%
80. Niagara West CPC leaning 86%
81. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning 85%
82. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 85%
83. Simcoe North CPC leaning 85%
84. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 84%
85. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning 82%
86. Simcoe–Grey CPC leaning 82%
87. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning 80%
88. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 78%
89. Carleton CPC leaning 78%
90. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning 76%
91. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning 74%
92. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 74%
93. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 73%
94. Markham–Unionville Toss up 70%
95. Saskatoon–University Toss up 68%
96. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up 68%
97. Dufferin–Caledon Toss up 68%
98. Regina–Wascana Toss up 67%
99. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up 66%
100. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Toss up 64%
101. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up 59%
102. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up 57%
103. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 55%
104. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up 55%
105. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up 55%
106. Oshawa Toss up 52%
107. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 51%
108. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 44%
109. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 44%
110. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 42%
111. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 41%
112. Essex Toss up 41%
113. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 37%
114. Niagara Falls Toss up 35%
115. Saskatoon West Toss up 34%
116. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 30%
117. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning 29%
118. West Nova LPC leaning 28%
119. Kenora Toss up 27%
120. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 25%
121. Trois-Rivières Toss up 24%
122. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning 22%
123. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 20%
124. Richmond Hill LPC leaning 19%
125. Kitchener–Conestoga LPC leaning 18%
126. King–Vaughan LPC leaning 15%
127. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 13%
128. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 12%
129. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC likely 9%
130. York Centre LPC likely 8%
131. Fredericton Toss up 7%
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC likely 6%
133. Newmarket–Aurora LPC likely 6%
134. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely 6%
135. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 4%
136. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely 4%
137. Oakville LPC likely 3%
138. Sault Ste. Marie LPC likely 3%
139. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 2%
140. Whitby LPC likely 2%
141. St. Catharines LPC likely 1%
142. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 1%
143. Jonquière BQ likely 1%
144. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 1%
145. Cambridge LPC likely <1%
146. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely <1%
147. Central Nova LPC likely <1%
148. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely <1%
149. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely <1%
150. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely <1%
151. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely <1%
152. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely <1%
153. Willowdale LPC likely <1%
154. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe
2. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe
3. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe
4. Bow River CPC safe
5. Lakeland CPC safe
6. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe
7. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe
8. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe
9. Yellowhead CPC safe
10. Foothills CPC safe
11. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe
12. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe
13. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe
14. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe
15. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe
17. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe
18. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe
19. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe
21. Prince Albert CPC safe
22. Calgary Shepard CPC safe
23. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
24. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
25. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe
26. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe
27. Calgary Heritage CPC safe
28. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
29. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
30. Provencher CPC safe
31. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe
32. Brandon–Souris CPC safe
33. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe
34. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe
35. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe
36. Lethbridge CPC safe
37. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe
38. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe
39. Mégantic–L'Érable CPC safe
40. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe
41. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe
42. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe
43. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
44. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe
45. Regina–Qu'Appelle CPC safe
46. Oxford CPC safe
47. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe
48. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe
49. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe
50. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe
51. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe
52. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe
53. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe
54. Abbotsford CPC safe
55. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely
56. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC likely
57. Edmonton West CPC likely
58. York–Simcoe CPC likely
59. Perth–Wellington CPC likely
60. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely
61. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely
62. Beauce CPC likely
63. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
64. Thornhill CPC likely
65. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
66. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
67. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
68. Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
69. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
70. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
71. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely
72. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
73. Calgary Centre CPC likely
74. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
75. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
76. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
77. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning
78. Durham CPC leaning
79. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
80. Niagara West CPC leaning
81. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning
82. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
83. Simcoe North CPC leaning
84. Fundy Royal CPC leaning
85. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning
86. Simcoe–Grey CPC leaning
87. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning
88. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
89. Carleton CPC leaning
90. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning
91. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning
92. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
93. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
94. Markham–Unionville Toss up
95. Saskatoon–University Toss up
96. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up
97. Dufferin–Caledon Toss up
98. Regina–Wascana Toss up
99. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up
100. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Toss up
101. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up
102. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up
103. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
104. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up
105. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up
106. Oshawa Toss up
107. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
108. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
109. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
110. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
111. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
112. Essex Toss up
113. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
114. Niagara Falls Toss up
115. Saskatoon West Toss up
116. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
117. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning
118. West Nova LPC leaning
119. Kenora Toss up
120. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
121. Trois-Rivières Toss up
122. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning
123. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
124. Richmond Hill LPC leaning
125. Kitchener–Conestoga LPC leaning
126. King–Vaughan LPC leaning
127. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
128. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
129. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC likely
130. York Centre LPC likely
131. Fredericton Toss up
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC likely
133. Newmarket–Aurora LPC likely
134. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely
135. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
136. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely
137. Oakville LPC likely
138. Sault Ste. Marie LPC likely
139. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
140. Whitby LPC likely
141. St. Catharines LPC likely
142. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
143. Jonquière BQ likely
144. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
145. Cambridge LPC likely
146. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
147. Central Nova LPC likely
148. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely
149. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
150. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
151. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
152. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
153. Willowdale LPC likely
154. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely



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