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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: October 19, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.9% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPs144
Current seat projection141 [104-173]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 19, 2025 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.8 seat/% 141 [104-173] 40% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × CPC 141 [104-173] October 19, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 57/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 34/37 BC 17/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | October 19, 2025

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.3% ▼ 39.9% ± 3.6% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.5% ▼ Probabilities % CPC October 19, 2025

Seat projection | October 19, 2025

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 104 ▼ 141 ▼ 2021 144 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 173 ▼ Probabilities % CPC October 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
3. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
8. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Foothills CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
24. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
33. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
34. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
35. Beauce CPC safe >99%
36. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
37. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
38. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
39. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
40. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
41. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
42. Essex CPC safe >99%
43. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
44. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
45. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
46. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
47. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
48. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
49. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
50. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
51. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe >99%
52. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
53. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
54. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
55. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
56. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
57. York—Durham CPC likely >99%
58. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely >99%
59. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely >99%
60. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely >99%
61. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely >99%
62. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely >99%
63. Oxford CPC likely >99%
64. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely >99%
65. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely >99%
66. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 99%
67. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
68. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 99%
69. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 99%
70. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 99%
71. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 98%
72. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 98%
73. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 98%
74. York Centre CPC likely 98%
75. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 98%
76. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 98%
77. Middlesex—London CPC likely 97%
78. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 97%
79. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 96%
80. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 96%
81. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 96%
82. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 95%
83. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 95%
84. Niagara West CPC likely 95%
85. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 93%
86. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 93%
87. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 93%
88. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 93%
89. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 92%
90. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 92%
91. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 92%
92. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 91%
93. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 91%
94. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 91%
95. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 90%
96. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 88%
97. Edmonton West CPC leaning 88%
98. Oshawa CPC leaning 87%
99. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 86%
100. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 85%
101. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 84%
102. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 84%
103. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 84%
104. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 83%
105. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 83%
106. Niagara South CPC leaning 83%
107. Simcoe North CPC leaning 81%
108. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 81%
109. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 81%
110. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 80%
111. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 80%
112. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 79%
113. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 79%
114. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 78%
115. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 77%
116. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 76%
117. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 76%
118. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 75%
119. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning 74%
120. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 74%
121. Cambridge CPC leaning 74%
122. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 74%
123. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 72%
124. Brampton West CPC leaning 72%
125. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 72%
126. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC leaning 71%
127. Windsor West CPC leaning 71%
128. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
129. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
130. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
131. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
132. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 63%
133. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
134. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
135. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
136. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
137. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
138. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
139. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
140. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
141. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
142. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
143. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
144. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
145. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
146. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 45%
147. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 41%
148. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
149. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 37%
150. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
151. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
152. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
153. Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
154. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 29%
155. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 29%
156. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 28%
157. Kelowna LPC leaning 27%
158. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 27%
159. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 26%
160. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 26%
161. Oakville East LPC leaning 25%
162. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 24%
163. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 24%
164. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 23%
165. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 19%
166. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 19%
167. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 19%
168. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 17%
169. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 16%
170. Oakville West LPC leaning 16%
171. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 16%
172. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 15%
173. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 15%
174. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 14%
175. Willowdale LPC leaning 14%
176. Whitby LPC leaning 14%
177. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 14%
178. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning 12%
179. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 10%
180. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 10%
181. Courtenay—Alberni NDP likely 10%
182. Don Valley North LPC likely 10%
183. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 9%
184. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 8%
185. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 8%
186. Etobicoke North LPC likely 8%
187. Labrador LPC likely 8%
188. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 8%
189. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 6%
190. Mount Royal LPC likely 6%
191. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 5%
192. St. Catharines LPC likely 5%
193. Delta LPC likely 4%
194. Sudbury LPC likely 4%
195. Egmont LPC likely 4%
196. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 4%
197. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 4%
198. Yukon LPC likely 4%
199. Peterborough LPC likely 3%
200. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 3%
201. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 2%
202. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 2%
203. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 2%
204. Burlington LPC likely 1%
205. Northwest Territories LPC likely 1%
206. Central Nova LPC likely 1%