338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: October 23, 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection






Regional Seat Projection






National Seat Projection





Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of October 23, 2019.)

#1 48002 Battle River–Crowfoot Safe CPC>99%
#2 48003 Bow River Safe CPC>99%
#3 48022 Foothills Safe CPC>99%
#4 48008 Calgary Midnapore Safe CPC>99%
#5 48029 Red Deer–Mountain View Safe CPC>99%
#6 48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie Safe CPC>99%
#7 48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland Safe CPC>99%
#8 48034 Yellowhead Safe CPC>99%
#9 48007 Calgary Heritage Safe CPC>99%
#10 48025 Lakeland Safe CPC>99%
#11 48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin Safe CPC>99%
#12 48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner Safe CPC>99%
#13 48011 Calgary Shepard Safe CPC>99%
#14 47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands Safe CPC>99%
#15 48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan Safe CPC>99%
#16 47013 Souris–Moose Mountain Safe CPC>99%
#17 46007 Portage–Lisgar Safe CPC>99%
#18 48001 Banff–Airdrie Safe CPC>99%
#19 48030 Red Deer–Lacombe Safe CPC>99%
#20 48009 Calgary Nose Hill Safe CPC>99%
#21 48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake Safe CPC>99%
#22 47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster Safe CPC>99%
#23 48012 Calgary Signal Hill Safe CPC>99%
#24 48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge Safe CPC>99%
#25 48028 Peace River–Westlock Safe CPC>99%
#26 47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek Safe CPC>99%
#27 46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman Safe CPC>99%
#28 46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa Safe CPC>99%
#29 46001 Brandon–Souris Safe CPC>99%
#30 48020 Edmonton West Safe CPC>99%
#31 46008 Provencher Safe CPC>99%
#32 48018 Edmonton Riverbend Safe CPC>99%
#33 48006 Calgary Forest Lawn Safe CPC>99%
#34 48031 St. Albert–Edmonton Safe CPC>99%
#35 59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies Safe CPC>99%
#36 47014 Yorkton–Melville Safe CPC>99%
#37 48026 Lethbridge Safe CPC>99%
#38 47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan Safe CPC>99%
#39 59001 Abbotsford Safe CPC>99%
#40 48005 Calgary Confederation Safe CPC>99%
#41 24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis Safe CPC>99%
#42 47008 Regina–Qu'Appelle Safe CPC>99%
#43 47006 Prince Albert Safe CPC>99%
#44 35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex Likely CPC>99%
#45 24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent Likely CPC>99%
#46 24042 Lévis–Lotbinière Likely CPC>99%
#47 59006 Chilliwack–Hope Likely CPC>99%
#48 48004 Calgary Centre Likely CPC>99%
#49 48016 Edmonton Manning Likely CPC>99%
#50 35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London Likely CPC>99%
#51 47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood Likely CPC>99%
#52 48015 Edmonton Griesbach Likely CPC>99%
#53 47011 Saskatoon–University Likely CPC>99%
#54 46006 Kildonan–St. Paul Likely CPC>99%
#55 24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier Likely CPC>99%
#56 24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles Likely CPC>99%
#57 59016 Langley–Aldergrove Likely CPC>99%
#58 35080 Oxford Likely CPC>99%
#59 35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston Likely CPC99%
#60 35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock Likely CPC99%
#61 35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington Likely CPC99%
#62 48017 Edmonton Mill Woods Likely CPC98%
#63 59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola Likely CPC98%
#64 35113 Wellington–Halton Hills Likely CPC97%
#65 35068 Niagara West Likely CPC97%
#66 35088 Carleton Likely CPC97%
#67 35104 Thornhill Likely CPC96%
#68 48013 Calgary Skyview Likely CPC96%
#69 59004 Cariboo–Prince George Likely CPC96%
#70 35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Likely CPC95%
#71 35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke Likely CPC94%
#72 59025 Richmond Centre Likely CPC93%
#73 35099 Simcoe–Grey Likely CPC93%
#74 35033 Haldimand–Norfolk Likely CPC92%
#75 35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Likely CPC92%
#76 48014 Edmonton Centre Likely CPC91%
#77 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Likely CPC91%
#78 59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap Likely CPC91%
#79 35119 York–Simcoe Leaning CPC90%
#80 59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Leaning CPC89%
#81 35023 Durham Leaning CPC89%
#82 35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry Leaning CPC89%
#83 35083 Perth–Wellington Leaning CPC87%
#84 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka Leaning CPC87%
#85 35004 Barrie–Innisfil Leaning CPC87%
#86 35074 Oshawa Leaning CPC86%
#87 35040 Huron–Bruce Leaning CPC85%
#88 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook Leaning CPC84%
#89 46005 Elmwood–Transcona Leaning CPC82%
#90 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Leaning CPC82%
#91 35056 Markham–Unionville Leaning CPC81%
#92 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Leaning CPC81%
#93 24047 Mégantic–L'Érable Leaning CPC79%
#94 35067 Niagara Falls Leaning CPC78%
#95 59030 South Surrey–White Rock Leaning CPC77%
#96 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Leaning CPC76%
#97 35022 Dufferin–Caledon Leaning CPC75%
#98 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Leaning CPC74%
#99 47007 Regina–Lewvan Leaning CPC74%
#100 35013 Brantford–Brant Leaning CPC71%
#101 35100 Simcoe North Toss up68%
#102 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up67%
#103 24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up66%
#104 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up64%
#105 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Toss up63%
#106 46013 Winnipeg South Toss up63%
#107 24061 Richmond–Arthabaska Toss up62%
#108 13004 Fundy Royal Toss up62%
#109 12011 West Nova Toss up62%
#110 13008 New Brunswick Southwest Toss up62%
#111 35043 King–Vaughan Toss up61%
#112 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up58%
#113 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up57%
#114 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up57%
#115 35091 Sarnia–Lambton Toss up56%
#116 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up56%
#117 13010 Tobique–Mactaquac Toss up56%
#118 13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up56%
#119 12002 Central Nova Toss up55%
#120 47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up53%
#121 35016 Cambridge Toss up52%
#122 35087 Richmond Hill Toss up52%
#123 12010 Sydney–Victoria Toss up52%
#124 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Toss up51%
#125 24076 Trois-Rivières Toss up50%
#126 12001 Cape Breton–Canso Toss up49%
#127 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up49%
#128 35057 Milton Toss up48%
#129 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up48%
#130 59015 Kootenay–Columbia Toss up47%
#131 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up46%
#132 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Toss up46%
#133 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up46%
#134 35015 Burlington Toss up45%
#135 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up45%
#136 13003 Fredericton Toss up45%
#137 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up44%
#138 35114 Whitby Toss up44%
#139 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up44%
#140 48019 Edmonton Strathcona Toss up41%
#141 47009 Regina–Wascana Toss up41%
#142 47012 Saskatoon West Toss up38%
#143 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Toss up36%
#144 59040 Vancouver South Toss up31%
#145 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up31%
#146 35089 St. Catharines Toss up31%
#147 59011 Delta Toss up31%
#148 60001 Yukon Toss up30%
#149 24007 Beauce Leaning PPC29%
#150 24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up26%
#151 35054 Markham–Stouffville Leaning LPC26%
#152 62001 Nunavut Toss up22%
#153 24035 Lac-Saint-Jean Leaning BQ22%
#154 24008 Beauport–Limoilou Toss up22%
#155 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Leaning LPC21%
#156 35053 London West Leaning LPC19%
#157 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Leaning LPC19%
#158 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup Leaning BQ18%
#159 13009 Saint John–Rothesay Leaning LPC18%
#160 61001 Northwest Territories Toss up17%
#161 35118 York Centre Leaning LPC16%
#162 11003 Egmont Leaning LPC16%
#163 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Leaning LPC16%
#164 35011 Brampton South Leaning LPC14%
#165 35008 Brampton Centre Leaning LPC14%
#166 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Leaning LPC14%
#167 35072 Oakville Leaning LPC14%
#168 59026 Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke Leaning NDP12%
#169 59037 North Island–Powell River Leaning NDP12%
#170 59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay Leaning NDP12%
#171 35010 Brampton North Leaning LPC12%
#172 35012 Brampton West Leaning LPC11%
#173 35055 Markham–Thornhill Likely LPC8%
#174 59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Likely NDP8%
#175 35064 Nepean Likely LPC7%
#176 35066 Niagara Centre Leaning LPC7%
#177 35020 Don Valley North Likely LPC7%
#178 59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam Likely NDP7%
#179 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Likely LPC6%
#180 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Likely LPC6%
#181 35026 Essex Likely NDP6%
#182 35006 Bay of Quinte Likely LPC6%
#183 35001 Ajax Likely LPC5%
#184 35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville Likely LPC5%