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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: September 7, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection39.6% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPs144
Current seat projection134 [94-172]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 7, 2025 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 10.8 seat/% 134 [94-172] 40% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 134 [94-172] September 7, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 9/78 ON 49/122 MB 6/14 SK 13/14 AB 33/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | September 7, 2025

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.5% ▼ 39.6% ± 4.1% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.7% ▼ Probabilities % CPC September 7, 2025

Seat projection | September 7, 2025

45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 94 ▼ 134 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 172 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC September 7, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
3. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
4. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
5. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
6. Bow River CPC safe >99%
7. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
8. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
9. Foothills CPC safe >99%
10. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
13. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
14. Parkland CPC safe >99%
15. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
19. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
20. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
25. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
31. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
32. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
33. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
34. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
35. Beauce CPC safe >99%
36. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
37. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
38. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
39. Calgary East CPC safe >99%
40. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
41. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
42. Calgary Heritage CPC safe >99%
43. Saskatoon West CPC safe >99%
44. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe >99%
45. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe >99%
46. Essex CPC safe >99%
47. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe >99%
48. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe >99%
49. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe >99%
50. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe >99%
51. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely >99%
52. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely >99%
53. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely >99%
54. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely >99%
55. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely >99%
56. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely >99%
57. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely >99%
58. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely >99%
59. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 99%
60. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 99%
61. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 99%
62. York—Durham CPC likely 99%
63. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 99%
64. Oxford CPC likely 99%
65. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 98%
66. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 98%
67. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 98%
68. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely 98%
69. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 97%
70. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 96%
71. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 96%
72. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 96%
73. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 95%
74. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 95%
75. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 95%
76. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 94%
77. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 94%
78. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 94%
79. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 94%
80. Fundy Royal CPC likely 94%
81. York Centre CPC likely 93%
82. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 93%
83. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 93%
84. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 90%
85. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 90%
86. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 90%
87. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 90%
88. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 90%
89. Edmonton West CPC leaning 89%
90. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 89%
91. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 89%
92. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 88%
93. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 88%
94. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 87%
95. Niagara West CPC leaning 86%
96. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 86%
97. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 85%
98. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 83%
99. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 83%
100. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 82%
101. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 81%
102. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 81%
103. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 80%
104. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 78%
105. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 77%
106. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 77%
107. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 77%
108. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 76%
109. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 75%
110. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 74%
111. Oshawa CPC leaning 73%
112. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 73%
113. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 72%
114. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 71%
115. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 70%
116. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 70%
117. Skeena—Bulkley Valley Toss up CPC/NDP 69%
118. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
119. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
120. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
121. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
122. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
123. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
124. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
125. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
126. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 61%
127. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
128. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
129. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
130. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
131. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
132. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
133. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
134. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 50%
135. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
136. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
137. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
138. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
139. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
140. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
141. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 40%
142. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
143. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
144. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
145. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
146. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
147. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
148. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
149. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
150. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
151. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 29%
152. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 29%
153. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 28%
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 28%
155. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning 27%
156. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 27%
157. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 27%
158. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 26%
159. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 25%
160. Brampton East LPC leaning 24%
161. Elmwood—Transcona NDP leaning 23%
162. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 23%
163. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 21%
164. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 21%
165. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 18%
166. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 17%
167. Carleton LPC leaning 17%
168. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 17%
169. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 16%
170. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 15%
171. Labrador LPC leaning 15%
172. Oakville East LPC leaning 14%
173. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 13%
174. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 13%
175. Egmont LPC leaning 12%
176. Delta LPC leaning 11%
177. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 9%
178. Oakville West LPC likely 9%
179. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 9%
180. Courtenay—Alberni NDP likely 8%
181. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 8%
182. Willowdale LPC likely 8%
183. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 8%
184. Whitby LPC likely 7%
185. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 6%
186. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 6%
187. Central Nova LPC likely 6%
188. Don Valley North LPC likely 5%
189. Yukon LPC likely 5%
190. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 5%
191. Etobicoke North LPC likely 4%
192. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 4%
193. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 3%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 3%
195. St. Catharines LPC likely 3%
196. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 2%
197. Sudbury LPC likely 2%
198. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 2%
199. Northwest Territories LPC likely 2%
200. Peterborough LPC likely 1%
201. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 1%
202. Mount Royal LPC likely 1%
203. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 1%
204. Winnipeg West LPC likely 1%
205. Nunavut NDP leaning 1%