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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: April 14, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection37.7% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection124 [94-151]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 14, 2025 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 7.2 seat/% 124 [94-151] 38% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ CPC 124 [94-151] April 14, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 3/11 NB 4/10 QC 12/78 ON 37/122 MB 7/14 SK 13/14 AB 29/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 14, 2025

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.3% ▼ 2021 33.7% 37.7% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 42.1% ▼ Probabilities % CPC April 14, 2025

Seat projection | April 14, 2025

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 94 ▼ 2021 119 seats 124 ▼ Max. 151 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC April 14, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
4. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
5. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
7. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
8. Foothills CPC safe >99%
9. Bow River CPC safe >99%
10. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
11. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
12. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
13. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
14. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
17. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
18. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
21. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
22. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
23. Beauce CPC safe >99%
24. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
25. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
26. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
27. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe >99%
28. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
29. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe >99%
30. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe >99%
31. Lethbridge CPC safe >99%
32. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
33. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
34. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
35. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
36. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
37. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe >99%
38. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe >99%
39. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe >99%
40. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe >99%
41. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe >99%
42. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe >99%
43. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe >99%
44. Essex CPC safe >99%
45. Huron—Bruce CPC safe >99%
46. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe >99%
47. Perth—Wellington CPC safe >99%
48. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
49. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
50. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
51. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe >99%
52. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe >99%
53. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe >99%
54. Oxford CPC safe >99%
55. North Island—Powell River CPC safe >99%
56. Regina—Lewvan CPC safe >99%
57. Lanark—Frontenac CPC likely >99%
58. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely >99%
59. Cariboo—Prince George CPC likely >99%
60. Calgary Heritage CPC likely >99%
61. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC likely >99%
62. Provencher CPC likely >99%
63. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely >99%
64. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 99%
65. York—Durham CPC likely 99%
66. Montmorency—Charlevoix CPC likely 99%
67. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely 99%
68. Dufferin—Caledon CPC likely 99%
69. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 99%
70. Oshawa CPC likely 99%
71. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 98%
72. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 98%
73. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 98%
74. Saskatoon South CPC likely 98%
75. Saskatoon West CPC likely 98%
76. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 98%
77. Middlesex—London CPC likely 98%
78. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely 97%
79. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely 97%
80. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely 96%
81. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely 96%
82. Thornhill CPC likely 96%
83. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 96%
84. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 95%
85. Calgary East CPC likely 95%
86. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely 94%
87. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 94%
88. Beauport—Limoilou CPC likely 93%
89. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 93%
90. Fundy Royal CPC likely 93%
91. Carleton CPC likely 93%
92. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 91%
93. Simcoe North CPC likely 91%
94. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 90%
95. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC leaning 90%
96. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 88%
97. Niagara West CPC leaning 88%
98. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 88%
99. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 86%
100. Calgary Crowfoot CPC leaning 85%
101. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 83%
102. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 80%
103. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 79%
104. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 79%
105. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC leaning 78%
106. Acadie—Annapolis CPC leaning 74%
107. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 71%
108. Cumberland—Colchester CPC leaning 71%
109. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC leaning 71%
110. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
111. King—Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
112. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
113. Edmonton Northwest Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
114. South Shore—St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
115. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
116. Nanaimo—Ladysmith Toss up CPC/GPC 60%
117. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
118. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
119. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
120. Abbotsford—South Langley Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
121. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
122. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
123. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
124. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 51%
125. Edmonton Gateway Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
126. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
127. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
128. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC 42%
129. Peterborough Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
130. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
131. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
132. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
133. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 35%
134. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
135. Edmonton Southeast Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
136. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
137. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
138. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
139. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 31%
140. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LPC leaning 25%
141. Langley Township—Fraser Heights LPC leaning 25%
142. York Centre LPC leaning 21%
143. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 19%
144. Oakville East LPC leaning 16%
145. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ leaning 15%
146. Milton East—Halton Hills South LPC leaning 12%
147. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 10%
148. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/BQ 10%
149. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 10%
150. Kitchener South—Hespeler LPC likely 8%
151. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC likely 8%
152. Markham—Unionville LPC likely 7%
153. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 7%
154. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk LPC leaning 6%
155. Long Range Mountains LPC likely 6%
156. Calgary McKnight LPC likely 6%
157. Drummond BQ likely 6%
158. Vaughan—Woodbridge LPC likely 6%
159. Richmond Hill South LPC likely 6%
160. Yukon LPC likely 5%
161. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC likely 5%
162. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely 4%
163. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 4%
164. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC likely 3%
165. Malpeque LPC likely 3%
166. Oakville West LPC likely 3%
167. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely 3%
168. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 3%
169. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
170. Winnipeg West LPC likely 2%
171. Newmarket—Aurora LPC likely 2%
172. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 2%
173. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC likely 2%
174. Delta LPC likely 2%
175. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC likely 2%
176. Brampton Centre LPC likely 2%
177. Labrador LPC likely 2%
178. London—Fanshawe Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
179. Cambridge LPC likely 2%
180. Kanata LPC likely 2%
181. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC likely 2%
182. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 1%
183. London West LPC likely 1%
184. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC likely 1%
185. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC likely 1%
186. Burlington LPC likely 1%
187. Brampton North—Caledon LPC likely 1%