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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: July 27, 2025

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202541.3%
Current vote projection38.7% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs143
Current seat projection121 [77-163]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 27, 2025 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada 11.2 seat/% 121 [77-163] 39% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 121 [77-163] July 27, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 3/10 QC 7/78 ON 45/122 MB 5/14 SK 11/14 AB 31/37 BC 17/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | July 27, 2025

29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 34.3% ▼ 38.7% ± 4.4% ▼ 2025 41.3% Max. 43.1% ▼ Probabilities % CPC July 27, 2025

Seat projection | July 27, 2025

25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 77 ▼ 121 ▼ 2021 144 seats Max. 163 ▼ Majority 172 seats Probabilities % CPC July 27, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe >99%
2. Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe >99%
3. Grande Prairie CPC safe >99%
4. Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe >99%
5. Lakeland CPC safe >99%
6. Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe >99%
7. Bow River CPC safe >99%
8. Peace River—Westlock CPC safe >99%
9. Yorkton—Melville CPC safe >99%
10. Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe >99%
11. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe >99%
12. Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe >99%
13. Foothills CPC safe >99%
14. Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe >99%
15. Parkland CPC safe >99%
16. Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe >99%
17. Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe >99%
18. Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe >99%
19. Red Deer CPC safe >99%
20. Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe >99%
21. Prince Albert CPC safe >99%
22. Portage—Lisgar CPC safe >99%
23. Yellowhead CPC safe >99%
24. Thornhill CPC safe >99%
25. Calgary Shepard CPC safe >99%
26. Riding Mountain CPC safe >99%
27. Provencher CPC safe >99%
28. Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe >99%
29. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe >99%
30. St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe >99%
31. Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe >99%
32. Brandon—Souris CPC safe >99%
33. Beauce CPC safe >99%
34. Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe >99%
35. Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe >99%
36. Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe >99%
37. Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe >99%
38. Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe >99%
39. King—Vaughan CPC safe >99%
40. Lethbridge CPC likely >99%
41. Calgary East CPC likely >99%
42. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely >99%
43. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely >99%
44. Saskatoon West CPC likely >99%
45. Essex CPC likely >99%
46. Haldimand—Norfolk CPC likely >99%
47. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely >99%
48. Calgary Heritage CPC likely >99%
49. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely 99%
50. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely 99%
51. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely 99%
52. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 99%
53. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely 99%
54. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 98%
55. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 98%
56. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely 98%
57. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 98%
58. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely 97%
59. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 97%
60. York—Durham CPC likely 97%
61. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 97%
62. Oxford CPC likely 97%
63. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 96%
64. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 95%
65. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 94%
66. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 94%
67. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 92%
68. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 91%
69. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 91%
70. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 90%
71. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 89%
72. Huron—Bruce CPC leaning 89%
73. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning 88%
74. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC leaning 88%
75. York Centre CPC leaning 88%
76. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC leaning 88%
77. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC leaning 87%
78. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC leaning 87%
79. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC leaning 86%
80. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 84%
81. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 84%
82. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 82%
83. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 82%
84. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 81%
85. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 81%
86. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 78%
87. Niagara West CPC leaning 78%
88. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 78%
89. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 77%
90. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 76%
91. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 76%
92. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 75%
93. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 75%
94. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 74%
95. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 74%
96. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 73%
97. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 72%
98. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 71%
99. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 71%
100. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 71%
101. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 71%
102. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
103. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
104. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
105. Wellington—Halton Hills North Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
106. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
107. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 65%
108. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
109. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
110. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 60%
111. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
112. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
113. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
114. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
115. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
116. Saskatoon South Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
117. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
118. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
119. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
120. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
121. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
122. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
123. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
124. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
125. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
126. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
127. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
128. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
129. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
130. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
131. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
132. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
133. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
134. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
135. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
136. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
137. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC leaning 29%
138. Richmond—Arthabaska LPC leaning 27%
139. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 27%
140. Elmwood—Transcona NDP leaning 27%
141. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 26%
142. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 26%
143. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC leaning 26%
144. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 26%
145. Brampton South LPC leaning 26%
146. Kelowna LPC leaning 24%
147. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 24%
148. Kildonan—St. Paul LPC leaning 23%
149. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 22%
150. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 21%
151. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 20%
152. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 20%
153. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 19%
154. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 18%
155. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 17%
156. Brampton East LPC leaning 17%
157. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 16%
158. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 16%
159. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord LPC leaning 15%
160. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 15%
161. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 14%
162. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 14%
163. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 14%
164. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 14%
165. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 13%
166. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 13%
167. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 13%
168. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 13%
169. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 11%
170. Carleton LPC leaning 11%
171. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 11%
172. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 10%
173. Oakville East LPC likely 9%
174. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 9%
175. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 8%
176. Labrador LPC likely 8%
177. Oakville West LPC likely 5%
178. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 5%
179. Egmont LPC likely 5%
180. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 5%
181. Willowdale LPC likely 5%
182. Delta LPC likely 5%
183. Whitby LPC likely 4%
184. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 3%
185. Don Valley North LPC likely 3%
186. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 3%
187. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 3%
188. Etobicoke North LPC likely 3%
189. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 2%
190. Yukon LPC likely 2%
191. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 2%
192. Central Nova LPC likely 2%
193. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 2%
194. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 1%
195. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 1%
196. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 1%
197. St. Catharines LPC likely 1%
198. Sudbury LPC likely 1%