Conservative Party of Canada

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Conservative Party of Canada

Rank	Electoral districts	Province	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Souris–Moose Mountain			CPC safe hold	>99%
2.	Battle River–Crowfoot			CPC safe hold	>99%
3.	Bow River			CPC safe hold	>99%
4.	Lakeland			CPC safe hold	>99%
5.	Fort McMurray–Cold Lake			CPC safe hold	>99%
6.	Grande Prairie–Mackenzie			CPC safe hold	>99%
7.	Cypress Hills–Grasslands			CPC safe hold	>99%
8.	Foothills			CPC safe hold	>99%
9.	Red Deer–Lacombe			CPC safe hold	>99%
10.	Yellowhead			CPC safe hold	>99%
11.	Yorkton–Melville			CPC safe hold	>99%
12.	Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner			CPC safe hold	>99%
13.	Red Deer–Mountain View			CPC safe hold	>99%
14.	Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek			CPC safe hold	>99%
15.	Sturgeon River–Parkland			CPC safe hold	>99%
16.	Battlefords–Lloydminster			CPC safe hold	>99%
17.	Prince Albert			CPC safe hold	>99%
18.	Peace River–Westlock			CPC safe hold	>99%
19.	Calgary Shepard			CPC safe hold	>99%
20.	Calgary Midnapore			CPC safe hold	>99%
21.	Mégantic–L’Érable			CPC safe hold	>99%
22.	Calgary Signal Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
23.	Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies			CPC safe hold	>99%
24.	Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan			CPC safe hold	>99%
25.	Calgary Heritage			CPC safe hold	>99%
26.	Regina–Qu’Appelle			CPC safe hold	>99%
27.	Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry			CPC safe hold	>99%
28.	Lethbridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
29.	Banff–Airdrie			CPC safe hold	>99%
30.	Calgary Nose Hill			CPC safe hold	>99%
31.	Edmonton–Wetaskiwin			CPC safe hold	>99%
32.	Lévis–Lotbinière			CPC safe hold	>99%
33.	Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis			CPC safe hold	>99%
34.	Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup			CPC safe hold	>99%
35.	Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier			CPC safe hold	>99%
36.	Louis-Saint-Laurent			CPC safe hold	>99%
37.	Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan			CPC safe hold	>99%
38.	Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock			CPC safe hold	>99%
39.	Huron–Bruce			CPC safe hold	>99%
40.	Richmond–Arthabaska			CPC safe hold	>99%
41.	Wellington–Halton Hills			CPC safe hold	>99%
42.	Calgary Rocky Ridge			CPC safe hold	>99%
43.	Beauce			CPC safe hold	>99%
44.	York–Simcoe			CPC safe hold	>99%
45.	Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes			CPC safe hold	>99%
46.	Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa			CPC safe hold	>99%
47.	Tobique–Mactaquac			CPC safe hold	>99%
48.	Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke			CPC safe hold	>99%
49.	Elgin–Middlesex–London			CPC safe hold	>99%
50.	Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound			CPC safe hold	>99%
51.	Cariboo–Prince George			CPC safe hold	>99%
52.	Perth–Wellington			CPC safe hold	>99%
53.	Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston			CPC safe hold	>99%
54.	Haldimand–Norfolk			CPC safe hold	>99%
55.	Barrie–Innisfil			CPC safe hold	>99%
56.	New Brunswick Southwest			CPC safe hold	>99%
57.	Lambton–Kent–Middlesex			CPC safe hold	>99%
58.	Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman			CPC safe hold	>99%
59.	Dufferin–Caledon			CPC safe hold	>99%
60.	Sarnia–Lambton			CPC safe hold	>99%
61.	Simcoe–Grey			CPC safe hold	>99%
62.	Oxford			CPC safe hold	>99%
63.	Parry Sound–Muskoka			CPC safe hold	>99%
64.	Fundy Royal			CPC safe hold	>99%
65.	Abbotsford			CPC safe hold	>99%
66.	Portage–Lisgar			CPC safe hold	>99%
67.	Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles			CPC safe hold	>99%
68.	North Okanagan–Shuswap			CPC safe hold	>99%
69.	Brandon–Souris			CPC safe hold	>99%
70.	Durham			CPC safe hold	>99%
71.	Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola			CPC safe hold	>99%
72.	Langley–Aldergrove			CPC safe hold	>99%
73.	Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon			CPC safe hold	>99%
74.	Kelowna–Lake Country			CPC safe hold	>99%
75.	Niagara West			CPC safe hold	>99%
76.	Provencher			CPC safe hold	>99%
77.	Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte			CPC safe hold	>99%
78.	Brantford–Brant			CPC safe hold	>99%
79.	Edmonton West			CPC safe hold	>99%
80.	Carleton			CPC safe hold	>99%
81.	Simcoe North			CPC safe hold	>99%
82.	Thornhill			CPC safe hold	>99%
83.	Chatham-Kent–Leamington			CPC safe hold	>99%
84.	Edmonton Riverbend			CPC safe hold	>99%
85.	West Nova			CPC safe hold	>99%
86.	Northumberland–Peterborough South			CPC safe hold	>99%
87.	Chilliwack–Hope			CPC safe hold	>99%
88.	Calgary Centre			CPC safe hold	>99%
89.	St. Albert–Edmonton			CPC safe hold	>99%
90.	Hastings–Lennox and Addington			CPC safe hold	>99%
91.	Chicoutimi–Le Fjord			CPC safe hold	>99%
92.	Calgary Forest Lawn			CPC safe hold	>99%
93.	Calgary Confederation			CPC safe hold	>99%
94.	Cumberland–Colchester			CPC likely hold	99%
95.	Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo			CPC likely hold	98%
96.	Regina–Wascana			CPC likely hold	98%
97.	Niagara Falls			CPC likely hold	98%
98.	Bay of Quinte			CPC likely hold	98%
99.	Flamborough–Glanbrook			CPC likely hold	97%
100.	Oshawa			CPC likely hold	97%
101.	Peterborough–Kawartha			CPC likely hold	97%
102.	Kenora			CPC likely hold	95%
103.	Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River			CPC likely hold	95%
104.	King–Vaughan			CPC likely hold	94%
105.	Edmonton Manning			CPC likely hold	93%
106.	Essex			CPC likely hold	92%
107.	Kildonan–St. Paul			CPC likely hold	91%
108.	Saskatoon–University			CPC leaning hold	89%
109.	Saskatoon–Grasswood			CPC leaning hold	87%
110.	Trois-Rivières			CPC leaning gain	87%
111.	South Shore–St. Margarets			CPC leaning hold	84%
112.	Miramichi–Grand Lake			CPC leaning hold	83%
113.	Kootenay–Columbia			CPC leaning hold	83%
114.	Regina–Lewvan			CPC leaning hold	82%
115.	Sault Ste. Marie			CPC leaning gain	82%
116.	Edmonton Mill Woods			CPC leaning hold	80%
117.	Beauport–Limoilou			CPC leaning gain	80%
118.	Kitchener South–Hespeler			CPC leaning gain	79%
119.	South Surrey–White Rock			CPC leaning hold	79%
120.	Kitchener–Conestoga			CPC leaning gain	79%
121.	Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge			CPC leaning hold	76%
122.	Saskatoon West			CPC leaning hold	75%
123.	Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame			CPC leaning hold	74%
124.	Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley			Toss up LPC/CPC	64%
125.	Newmarket–Aurora			Toss up LPC/CPC	64%
126.	Niagara Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	63%
127.	Kanata–Carleton			Toss up LPC/CPC	62%
128.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix			Toss up CPC/BQ	61%
129.	St. Catharines			Toss up LPC/CPC	59%
130.	Mississauga–Lakeshore			Toss up LPC/CPC	59%
131.	Markham–Unionville			Toss up LPC/CPC	59%
132.	Vaughan–Woodbridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	58%
133.	Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	58%
134.	Cambridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	58%
135.	London West			Toss up LPC/CPC	57%
136.	Oakville			Toss up LPC/CPC	57%
137.	Nipissing–Timiskaming			Toss up LPC/CPC	51%
138.	Fredericton			Toss up LPC/CPC	51%
139.	Richmond Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	47%
140.	Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	46%
141.	Sydney–Victoria			Toss up LPC/CPC	46%
142.	Whitby			Toss up LPC/CPC	45%
143.	Cloverdale–Langley City			Toss up LPC/CPC	45%
144.	Richmond Hill			Toss up LPC/CPC	44%
145.	Oakville North–Burlington			Toss up LPC/CPC	44%
146.	Thunder Bay–Rainy River			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	40%
147.	York Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC	40%
148.	Long Range Mountains			Toss up LPC/CPC	36%
149.	Bonavista–Burin–Trinity			Toss up LPC/CPC	33%
150.	Pickering–Uxbridge			Toss up LPC/CPC	32%
151.	Nanaimo–Ladysmith			Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC	32%
152.	West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country			Toss up LPC/CPC	29%
153.	Edmonton Centre			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	27%
154.	Nepean			LPC leaning hold	26%
155.	Glengarry–Prescott–Russell			LPC leaning hold	25%
156.	Eglinton–Lawrence			LPC leaning hold	25%
157.	Hamilton East–Stoney Creek			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	25%
158.	Jonquière			BQ leaning hold	24%
159.	Malpeque			LPC leaning hold	22%
160.	North Island–Powell River			NDP leaning hold	22%
161.	Nickel Belt			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	21%
162.	Etobicoke Centre			LPC leaning hold	20%
163.	Sudbury			Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	19%
164.	Mississauga–Streetsville			LPC leaning hold	15%
165.	Calgary Skyview			LPC leaning hold	15%
166.	Markham–Stouffville			LPC leaning hold	14%
167.	Labrador			LPC leaning hold	13%
168.	Delta			LPC leaning hold	13%
169.	Edmonton Griesbach			NDP leaning hold	12%
170.	London North Centre			LPC leaning hold	12%
171.	Steveston–Richmond East			LPC leaning hold	11%
172.	Skeena–Bulkley Valley			NDP leaning hold	11%
173.	South Okanagan–West Kootenay			NDP leaning hold	11%
174.	Port Moody–Coquitlam			NDP leaning hold	11%
175.	Etobicoke–Lakeshore			LPC leaning hold	11%
176.	Brampton Centre			LPC leaning hold	10%
177.	Yukon			LPC leaning hold	10%
178.	Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam			LPC leaning hold	10%
179.	Cape Breton–Canso			LPC likely hold	10%
180.	Don Valley West			LPC likely hold	9%
181.	Windsor–Tecumseh			Toss up LPC/NDP	9%
182.	Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas			LPC likely hold	8%
183.	Willowdale			LPC likely hold	7%
184.	Mississauga–Erin Mills			LPC likely hold	7%
185.	Egmont			LPC likely hold	6%
186.	Charlottetown			LPC likely hold	5%
187.	Mississauga East–Cooksville			LPC likely hold	5%
188.	Timmins–James Bay			NDP likely hold	5%
189.	Saint John–Rothesay			LPC likely hold	4%
190.	Ottawa West–Nepean			LPC likely hold	4%
191.	Milton			LPC likely hold	4%
192.	Central Nova			LPC likely hold	4%
193.	Waterloo			LPC likely hold	3%
194.	Hamilton Mountain			Toss up LPC/NDP	3%
195.	Avalon			LPC likely hold	3%
196.	Vancouver Granville			Toss up LPC/NDP	2%
197.	Cardigan			LPC likely hold	2%
198.	Brampton South			LPC likely hold	2%