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Canada


Nanaimo–Ladysmith (federal)


MP: Lisa Marie Barron (NDP)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC leaning gain
Nanaimo–Ladysmith 35% ± 7% 28% ± 7% 24% ± 6% 11% ± 4% NDP 2021 28.89% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Nanaimo–Ladysmith 89% 11% 1%▲ Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo–Ladysmith

LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% GPC 28% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo–Ladysmith 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Nanaimo–Ladysmith

LPC <1% CPC 89% NDP 1% GPC 11% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo–Ladysmith



2015 2019 2021 Proj. NDP 33.2% 23.6% 28.89% 24% ± 6% CPC 23.4% 25.9% 27.03% 35% ± 7% GPC 19.8% 34.6% 25.61% 28% ± 7% LPC 23.5% 13.5% 13.56% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.5% 4.91% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%