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Canada

Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford


MP elect: Brad Vis (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford


Liberal Jeff Howe
Conservative Brad Vis*
NDP Jules Cote
Green John Kidder
PPC Kevin Sinclair

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford 57% ± 0%▲ CPC 37% ± 0%▼ LPC 5% ± 0%▲ NDP CPC 2025 56.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

LPC 37% ± 0% CPC 57% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 57% ± 0% 47.8% 47.1% 56.6% LPC 37% ± 0% 24.9% 24.2% 36.6% NDP 5% ± 0% 16.2% 18.0% 4.6% GPC 1% ± 0% 8.7% 3.7% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 0% 2.1% 7.0% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.