logo
logo
Canada
Canada flag

Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

Latest update: January 25, 2026
C
MP: Brad Vis
British Columbia
CPC safe
Projection — Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford → Demographic data — Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford → Regional projection — British Columbia → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 55% ± 7% 47.8% 47.1% 56.7% LPC 34% ± 6% 24.9% 24.2% 36.6% NDP 7% ± 4% 16.2% 18.0% 4.6% GPC 3% ± 3% 8.7% 3.7% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.1% 7.0% 0.8%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford 48% 62% 55% ± 7% CPC 28% 41% 34% ± 6% LPC 3% 10% 7% ± 4% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2025 56.7% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

LPC 34% ± 6% CPC 55% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 57% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 58% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 58% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 57% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 57% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 56% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 56% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 56% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 55% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 58% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 58% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 58% LPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 56% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 81.7% English 14.1% Punjabi 0.6% Korean 0.4% Mandarin 0.4% Vietnamese 0.3% Spanish 0.2% TagalogMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.9% No diploma 33.2% High school 9.4% Trade 18.6% College / Cégep 5.3% Some university 14.3% Bachelor's 7.4% PostgraduateMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 69.2% Not visible minority 30.8% Visible minority 22.6% South Asian 1.5% Chinese 1.3% Southeast Asian 1.1% Filipino 0.9% Black 0.9% Latin AmericanMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 40.7% No Religion 18.7% Sikh 14.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 7.4% Catholic 2.5% Anabaptist 2.3% Other Christian 1.9% Anglican 1.7% HinduMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 78.5% Owner 20.8% Renter 0.7% Community housingMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 61.7% Employed 33.9% Not in labour force 4.5% UnemployedMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 93.3% Non-Indigenous 6.7% Indigenous identity 3.8% First Nations 2.6% Metis 0.2% Multiple 0.1% OthersMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 93.2% Car / truck / van 2.8% Walking 1.9% Other 1.8% Public transit 0.3% BicycleMission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.