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Canada

Markham—Unionville


MP: Michael Ma (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Markham—Unionville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 9% 49.4% 42.4% 50.7% LPC 48% ± 9% 38.0% 48.2% 47.1% NDP 2% ± 2% 6.5% 6.6% 1.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 2.8% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Markham—Unionville


Markham—Unionville 50% ± 9% CPC 48% ± 9% LPC CPC 2025 50.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Unionville 59% CPC 41% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Unionville

LPC 48% ± 9% CPC 50% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Unionville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 56% LPC 30% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% LPC 32% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% LPC 35% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 47% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 48% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 49% LPC 48% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 50% LPC 48% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 50% LPC 48% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Unionville

LPC 41% CPC 59% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader