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Canada

Markham—Unionville


MP elect: Michael Ma (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Markham—Unionville


Liberal Peter Yuen
Conservative Michael Ma
NDP Sameer Qureshi
Green Elvin Kao

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Markham—Unionville 51% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 7% LPC CPC 2025 50.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Unionville 72%▼ CPC 28%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Unionville

LPC 47% ± 7% CPC 51% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Unionville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 56% LPC 30% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% LPC 32% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% LPC 35% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Unionville

LPC 28% CPC 72% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Markham—Unionville



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 51% ± 7% 49.4% 42.4% 50.7% LPC 47% ± 7% 38.0% 48.2% 47.1% NDP 1% ± 1% 6.5% 6.6% 1.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 2.8% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.