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Canada

Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 38% ± 7% BQ 28% ± 7% LPC 14% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 40.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 38% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 38% LPC 31% CPC 12% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 37% LPC 32% NDP 12% CPC 12% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 35% LPC 33% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 34% BQ 33% CPC 13% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 35% LPC 32% NDP 13% CPC 13% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 36% LPC 31% NDP 13% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 36% LPC 31% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 36% LPC 32% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 36% LPC 32% NDP 12% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 36% LPC 32% NDP 12% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 35% LPC 33% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 35% LPC 33% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 13% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 13% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 35% BQ 33% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 34% LPC 34% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 35% LPC 33% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 35% LPC 32% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 35% LPC 31% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 36% LPC 30% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 36% LPC 31% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 36% LPC 31% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 36% LPC 32% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 36% LPC 31% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 37% LPC 31% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 37% LPC 31% NDP 13% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 37% LPC 30% NDP 13% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 37% LPC 29% NDP 14% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 38% LPC 28% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 38% LPC 28% NDP 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 4% NDP <1% BQ 96% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% BQ 49% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 61% BQ 39% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.0% 40.4% 28% ± 7% BQ 36.5% 35.3% 38% ± 7% NDP 10.3% 10.3% 14% ± 5% CPC 7.4% 8.3% 12% ± 4% PPC 1.1% 2.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 5.8% 2.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.