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Canada


Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
BQ leaning
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 36% ± 7% BQ 32% ± 7% LPC 13% ± 5% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 40.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 78%▲ BQ 22%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 22% NDP <1% BQ 78% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC NDP BQ May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.0% 40.4% 32% ± 7% BQ 36.5% 35.3% 36% ± 7% NDP 10.3% 10.3% 12% ± 4% CPC 7.4% 8.3% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 2.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 5.8% 2.4% 6% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.