logo
Canada

Lakeland


MP: Shannon Stubbs (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Lakeland


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 81% ± 6% 83.9% 69.4% 81.0% LPC 12% ± 5% 4.5% 5.0% 12.2% NDP 4% ± 3% 6.5% 10.5% 3.8% PPC 2% ± 2% 2.5% 11.1% 1.7% GPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Lakeland 81% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 5% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 81.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lakeland >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lakeland

LPC 12% ± 5% CPC 81% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Lakeland 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 72% NDP 11% LPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 73% NDP 10% LPC 3% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 73% NDP 11% LPC 3% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 72% NDP 11% LPC 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 72% NDP 10% LPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 72% NDP 10% LPC 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 73% NDP 9% LPC 4% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 69% NDP 10% LPC 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 69% NDP 10% LPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 69% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 68% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 68% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 68% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 69% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 70% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 70% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 71% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 71% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 72% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 72% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 72% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 72% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 72% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 77% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 76% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Lakeland

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader