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Canada

Etobicoke North


MP elect: John Zerucelli (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Etobicoke North


Liberal John Zerucelli
Conservative Natalie Weed
NDP Benjamin Abis
Green Sarun Balaranjan
PPC Andy D'Andrea
Independent Neil Simon

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Etobicoke North 53% ± 7%▲ LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 52.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke North 97%▼ LPC 3%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Etobicoke North

LPC 53% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke North 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 40% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 48% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 53% CPC 41% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Etobicoke North

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke North



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 53% ± 7% 61.1% 58.9% 52.6% CPC 41% ± 7% 22.9% 25.4% 41.0% NDP 3% ± 2% 10.6% 10.5% 3.2% PPC 2% ± 2% 2.7% 4.3% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.9% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.