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Canada

Saint-Maurice—Champlain


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC leaning
Saint-Maurice—Champlain 33% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 6% BQ 26% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 42.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 72%▲ LPC 25% BQ 3%▼ CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Maurice—Champlain

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 30% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Maurice—Champlain 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 26% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 25% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 35% BQ 28% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% BQ 27% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 33% BQ 29% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 32% BQ 30% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 32% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Saint-Maurice—Champlain

LPC 72% CPC 3% NDP <1% BQ 25% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% BQ 22% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 57% BQ 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 73% BQ 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 85% BQ 12% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 88% BQ 8% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 90% BQ 5% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 75% BQ 19% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 66% BQ 28% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 67% BQ 29% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 71% BQ 25% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 72% BQ 25% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Saint-Maurice—Champlain



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.6% 42.4% 33% ± 7% BQ 34.2% 30.1% 30% ± 6% CPC 16.3% 18.0% 26% ± 6% NDP 5.3% 5.1% 7% ± 3% GPC 3.1% 1.3% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.