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Canada

Saint-Maurice—Champlain



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ leaning
Saint-Maurice—Champlain 35% ± 7%▼ BQ 30% ± 6%▲ LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 42.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 84%▼ BQ 16%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Maurice—Champlain

LPC 30% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Maurice—Champlain 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 26% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 25% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 35% BQ 28% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% BQ 27% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 33% BQ 29% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 32% BQ 30% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 32% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 34% BQ 29% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 34% BQ 28% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 35% BQ 28% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 36% BQ 27% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 35% BQ 28% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 22% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 34% LPC 32% CPC 22% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 34% LPC 31% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 34% LPC 32% CPC 21% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 21% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 35% LPC 33% CPC 21% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 21% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 21% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 35% LPC 31% CPC 22% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 36% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 35% LPC 30% CPC 23% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 36% LPC 29% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 35% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Saint-Maurice—Champlain

LPC 16% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 84% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% BQ 22% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 57% BQ 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 73% BQ 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 85% BQ 12% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 88% BQ 8% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 90% BQ 5% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 75% BQ 19% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 66% BQ 28% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 67% BQ 29% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 71% BQ 25% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 72% BQ 25% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 72% BQ 25% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 85% BQ 14% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 87% BQ 12% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 83% BQ 13% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 90% BQ 8% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 96% BQ 3% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 93% BQ 7% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 88% BQ 10% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 70% LPC 30% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 70% LPC 30% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 67% LPC 33% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 67% LPC 33% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 86% LPC 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 86% LPC 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Saint-Maurice—Champlain



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.6% 42.4% 30% ± 6% BQ 34.2% 30.1% 35% ± 7% CPC 16.3% 18.0% 22% ± 6% NDP 5.3% 5.1% 8% ± 4% GPC 3.1% 1.3% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.