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Canada

Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong


Liberal George Vandenberg
Conservative Marilyn Gladu*
NDP Lo-Anne Chan
PPC Brian Everaert
Rhinoceros Anthony Mitchell
Christian Heritage Mark Lamore

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 55% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7%▼ LPC 9% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 46.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 55% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP PPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% PPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 21% NDP 14% PPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 23% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 11% PPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% PPC 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% PPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% PPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 54% LPC 31% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 49.8% 46.5% 55% ± 8% LPC 21.4% 19.4% 30% ± 7% NDP 20.7% 21.0% 9% ± 4% PPC 2.7% 11.0% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.5% 1.5% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.