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Toronto
Beaches–East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton–Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke–Lakeshore Etobicoke North Parkdale–High Park Toronto–St. Paul's Scarborough–Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough–Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough–Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Spadina–Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto–Danforth University–Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South–Weston Humber River–Black Creek
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GTA-905
Ajax Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Burlington Durham King–Vaughan Markham–Stouffville Markham–Thornhill Markham–Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga East–Cooksville Mississauga–Erin Mills Mississauga–Lakeshore Mississauga–Malton Mississauga–Streetsville Newmarket–Aurora Oakville Oakville North–Burlington Oshawa Pickering–Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan–Woodbridge Whitby York–Simcoe
- Ottawa
- Eastern Ontario
- Hamilton-Niagara
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Southwestern Ontario
Brantford–Brant Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent–Leamington Elgin–Middlesex–London Essex Guelph Haldimand–Norfolk Huron–Bruce Kitchener Centre Kitchener–Conestoga Kitchener South–Hespeler Lambton–Kent–Middlesex London–Fanshawe London North Centre London West Oxford Perth–Wellington Sarnia–Lambton Waterloo Wellington–Halton Hills Windsor–Tecumseh Windsor West
- Centre of Ontario
- Northern Ontario
35090 - Toronto–St. Paul’s
| Province: | Ontario |
| Population (2016): | 107,900 residents |
| Population density: | 8237 pop./km² (rank: 9 of 338) |
| Median household income: | $70 655 (rank: 163 of 338) |
| Member of Parliament: | Carolyn Bennett (LPC) |
Latest projection (October 24, 2021)
Federal vote projection | Toronto–St. Paul’s
Last update: October 24, 2021Odds of winning | Toronto–St. Paul’s
Last update: October 24, 2021Electoral history of Toronto–St. Paul’s
(Results of 2011 election have been transposed on the new electoral map. Thanks to Kyle Hutton for his precious help.)
Projections vs results: How did the projections do in 2021? | Toronto–St. Paul’s
On the graph above, colored bar represent the final 338Canada projections for the 2021 federal election. The triangle markers indicates the results
in this electoral districts. Only parties that won at least 8% of the vote (or were projected above 8%) are listed.
Toronto–St. Paul’s
| Final 2021 Projection | 2021 Result | The Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner |  |
|
Correct winner |
|
54.4% ± 7.2% | 49.2% | Within confidence interval |
 |
23.1% ± 5.5% | 25.4% | Within confidence interval |
 |
10.9% ± 4.2% | 16.7% | Outside confidence interval |
*Only parties that won at least 8% of the popular vote
in this electoral district (or were projected above 8%) are indicated.
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Toronto
Beaches–East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton–Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke–Lakeshore Etobicoke North Parkdale–High Park Toronto–St. Paul's Scarborough–Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough–Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough–Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Spadina–Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto–Danforth University–Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South–Weston Humber River–Black Creek
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GTA-905
Ajax Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Burlington Durham King–Vaughan Markham–Stouffville Markham–Thornhill Markham–Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga East–Cooksville Mississauga–Erin Mills Mississauga–Lakeshore Mississauga–Malton Mississauga–Streetsville Newmarket–Aurora Oakville Oakville North–Burlington Oshawa Pickering–Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan–Woodbridge Whitby York–Simcoe
- Ottawa
- Eastern Ontario
- Hamilton-Niagara
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Southwestern Ontario
Brantford–Brant Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent–Leamington Elgin–Middlesex–London Essex Guelph Haldimand–Norfolk Huron–Bruce Kitchener Centre Kitchener–Conestoga Kitchener South–Hespeler Lambton–Kent–Middlesex London–Fanshawe London North Centre London West Oxford Perth–Wellington Sarnia–Lambton Waterloo Wellington–Halton Hills Windsor–Tecumseh Windsor West
- Centre of Ontario
- Northern Ontario