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Canada

Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong



Latest projection: March 27, 2025
CPC safe
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 53% ± 8%▼ CPC 28% ± 7%▲ LPC 11% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 46.5% 338Canada vote projection | March 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 53% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% PPC 6% GPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 21% NDP 14% PPC 6% GPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 23% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 11% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 11% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 49.8% 46.5% 53% ± 8% LPC 21.4% 19.4% 28% ± 7% NDP 20.7% 21.0% 11% ± 5% PPC 2.7% 11.0% 4% ± 5% GPC 4.5% 1.5% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.