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Canada


Toronto–St. Paul’s (federal)


MP: Carolyn Bennett (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

Toss up LPC/CPC
Toronto–St. Paul’s 33% ± 7%▼ 31% ± 6% 19% ± 5% 15% ± 6% LPC 2021 49.16% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Toronto–St. Paul’s 66%▼ 34%▲ <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto–St. Paul’s

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 31% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 5% GPC 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Toronto–St. Paul’s 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Toronto–St. Paul’s

LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Toronto–St. Paul’s



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.3% 54.3% 49.16% 33% ± 7% CPC 27.0% 21.6% 25.35% 31% ± 6% NDP 14.7% 15.8% 16.74% 19% ± 5% GPC 3.0% 6.8% 6.05% 15% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.5% 2.71% 2% ± 2%