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Canada

Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong


MP elect: Marilyn Gladu (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong


Liberal George Vandenberg
Conservative Marilyn Gladu*
NDP Lo-Anne Chan
PPC Brian Everaert
Rhinoceros Anthony Mitchell
Christian Heritage Mark Lamore

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 53% ± 6%▼ CPC 38% ± 6% LPC 5% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 53.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC 38% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 61% NDP 22% LPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 60% NDP 21% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% NDP 21% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% NDP 20% LPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% NDP 19% LPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 56% LPC 17% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 55% LPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 23% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 54% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 53% ± 6% 49.8% 46.5% 53.1% LPC 38% ± 6% 21.4% 19.4% 37.9% NDP 5% ± 3% 20.7% 21.0% 5.4% IND 2% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.7% 11.0% 1.5% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.