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Orléans


MP: Marie-France Lalonde (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Orléans


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 68% ± 7% 54.9% 52.3% 67.4% CPC 27% ± 7% 27.9% 28.7% 28.0% NDP 3% ± 2% 11.5% 14.4% 2.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.8% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.2% 2.6% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Orléans


Orléans 68% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 7% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 67.4% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Orléans

LPC 68% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 40% LPC 37% NDP 18% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 39% CPC 39% NDP 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 67% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 67% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 67% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 67% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 67% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 68% CPC 28% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 68% CPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 68% CPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 68% CPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 68% CPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Orléans

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader