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Canada

Orléans


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC leaning
Orléans 41% ± 7% LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 52.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans 78%▼ LPC 22%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Orléans

LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Orléans

LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Orléans



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.9% 52.3% 41% ± 7% CPC 27.9% 28.7% 37% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 14.4% 16% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 2.6% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.5% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.