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Orléans


MP elect: Marie-France Lalonde (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Orléans


Liberal Marie-France Lalonde*
Conservative Steve Mansour
NDP Oulai B. Goué
Green Jaycob Jacques
PPC Tafiqul Abu Mohammad
Independent Mazhar Choudhry
Independent Arabella Vida

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Orléans 67% ± 6% LPC 28% ± 5% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 67.4% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Orléans

LPC 67% ± 6% CPC 28% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 40% LPC 37% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 39% LPC 39% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 39% CPC 39% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% CPC 37% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 35% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 49% CPC 34% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 32% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 53% CPC 32% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 54% CPC 31% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 57% CPC 30% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% CPC 29% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 29% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% CPC 29% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 29% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 29% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 67% CPC 28% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 67% CPC 28% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 67% CPC 28% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 67% CPC 28% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Orléans

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Orléans



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 67% ± 6% 54.9% 52.3% 67.4% CPC 28% ± 5% 27.9% 28.7% 28.0% NDP 3% ± 2% 11.5% 14.4% 2.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.2% 2.6% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.