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Orléans



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Orléans 39% ± 7% CPC 38% ± 7% LPC 17% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 52.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans 61% CPC 39% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Orléans

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 43% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Orléans

LPC 39% CPC 61% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Orléans



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.9% 52.3% 38% ± 7% CPC 27.9% 28.7% 39% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 14.4% 17% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 2.6% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.5% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.