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Canada

Don Valley North


MP elect: Jamil Jivani (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Don Valley North


Liberal Maggie Chi
Conservative Joe Tay
NDP Naila Saeed
Green Andrew Armstrong
PPC Ivan Milivojevic
No Affiliation Xiaohua Gong

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Don Valley North 53% ± 7% LPC 42% ± 7%▼ CPC LPC 2025 53.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley North 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Don Valley North

LPC 53% ± 7% CPC 42% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 33% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 35% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 35% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 45% LPC 38% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 43% LPC 41% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% CPC 38% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 52% CPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 52% CPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 54% CPC 36% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 54% CPC 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 56% CPC 36% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 59% CPC 35% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Don Valley North

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Don Valley North



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 53% ± 7% 49.8% 52.8% 53.2% CPC 42% ± 7% 36.7% 32.5% 42.3% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.6% 9.9% 2.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.0% 2.9% 0.5% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.