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Canada

Don Valley North


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC leaning
Don Valley North 46% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% LPC 10% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3%▲ GPC LPC 2021 52.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley North 87%▲ CPC 13%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Don Valley North

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley North 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Don Valley North

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Don Valley North



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.8% 52.8% 38% ± 8% CPC 36.7% 32.5% 46% ± 8% NDP 8.6% 9.9% 10% ± 5% PPC 1.0% 2.9% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.8% 1.8% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.