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Canada

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 40% ± 7% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 4% LPC 7% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 5% PPC NDP 2021 42.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 40% ± 7% NDP 37% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 45% NDP 34% LPC 10% GPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 45% NDP 34% LPC 10% GPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 44% NDP 35% LPC 10% GPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% NDP 36% LPC 10% GPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 41% NDP 38% LPC 10% GPC 7% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 10% GPC 7% PPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% PPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% PPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% PPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC <1% CPC 67% NDP 33% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 74% NDP 26% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 36.1% 42.8% 37% ± 7% CPC 26.0% 28.4% 40% ± 7% LPC 15.8% 16.4% 11% ± 4% PPC 1.6% 6.3% 4% ± 5% GPC 20.2% 6.2% 7% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.