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Canada

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC leaning
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 42% ± 7% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 4% LPC 7% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC NDP 2021 42.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 78%▼ CPC 22%▲ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 42% ± 7% NDP 37% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 45% NDP 34% LPC 10% GPC 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 45% NDP 34% LPC 10% GPC 8% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 44% NDP 35% LPC 10% GPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% NDP 36% LPC 10% GPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 41% NDP 38% LPC 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 10% GPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 40% NDP 38% LPC 10% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% NDP 35% LPC 11% GPC 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 41% NDP 35% LPC 11% GPC 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 42% NDP 34% LPC 13% GPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 41% NDP 34% LPC 13% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 41% NDP 35% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 41% NDP 36% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 40% NDP 37% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 41% NDP 36% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 41% NDP 35% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 42% NDP 35% LPC 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 42% NDP 35% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 42% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 42% NDP 37% LPC 11% GPC 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC <1% CPC 78% NDP 22% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 74% NDP 26% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 61% NDP 39% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 84% NDP 16% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 67% NDP 33% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 72% NDP 28% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 83% NDP 17% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 78% NDP 22% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 36.1% 42.8% 37% ± 7% CPC 26.0% 28.4% 42% ± 7% LPC 15.8% 16.4% 11% ± 4% PPC 1.6% 6.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 20.2% 6.2% 7% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.