logo
Canada

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford


MP elect: Jeff Kibble (CPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford


Liberal Blair Herbert
Conservative Jeff Kibble
NDP Alistair MacGregor*
Green Kathleen Code

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 37% ± 4% CPC 33% ± 4% NDP 28% ± 4% LPC CPC 2025 37.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 92% CPC 8%▲ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC 28% ± 4% CPC 37% ± 4% NDP 33% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 44% NDP 36% LPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% NDP 35% LPC 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 45% NDP 35% LPC 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 43% NDP 33% LPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 42% NDP 32% LPC 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 41% NDP 30% LPC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% NDP 30% LPC 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 39% LPC 26% NDP 26% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 39% LPC 27% NDP 26% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 39% LPC 27% NDP 26% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 39% LPC 27% NDP 26% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 39% LPC 28% NDP 26% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 39% LPC 28% NDP 25% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 38% LPC 28% NDP 26% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 38% LPC 29% NDP 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 38% LPC 29% NDP 26% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 27% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 27% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 38% LPC 27% NDP 27% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 39% LPC 27% NDP 27% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 28% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 28% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 27% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 38% NDP 30% LPC 27% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 38% NDP 30% LPC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 28% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 28% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 41% NDP 36% LPC 18% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 42% NDP 36% LPC 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 42% NDP 35% LPC 19% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 42% NDP 34% LPC 19% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 43% NDP 34% LPC 19% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 43% NDP 34% LPC 20% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 43% NDP 33% LPC 20% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 41% NDP 34% LPC 20% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 28% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 28% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

LPC <1% CPC 92% NDP 8% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP 1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 98% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 95% LPC 4% NDP 1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 95% LPC 4% NDP 1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 95% LPC 4% NDP 1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 97% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 1% NDP 1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 95% NDP 3% LPC 2% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 80% NDP 17% LPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 78% NDP 17% LPC 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 79% NDP 17% LPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 81% NDP 16% LPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 83% NDP 15% LPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 88% NDP 9% LPC 2% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 91% NDP 7% LPC 2% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 95% NDP 4% LPC 1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 95% NDP 4% LPC 1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 93% NDP 5% LPC 2% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 93% NDP 6% LPC 2% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 92% NDP 6% LPC 2% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 90% NDP 8% LPC 2% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 92% NDP 7% LPC 1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 93% NDP 6% LPC 2% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 93% NDP 5% LPC 2% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 90% NDP 8% LPC 2% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 92% NDP 6% LPC 2% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 94% NDP 4% LPC 1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 92% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 37% ± 4% 26.0% 28.4% 37.2% NDP 33% ± 4% 36.1% 42.8% 32.6% LPC 28% ± 4% 15.8% 16.4% 28.2% GPC 2% ± 1% 20.2% 6.2% 2.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.6% 6.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.