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Edmonton Strathcona


MP: Heather McPherson (NDP)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
NDP likely

Recent electoral history | Edmonton Strathcona


2019 2021 2025 Proj. NDP 47% ± 9% 44.8% 58.0% 47.0% CPC 33% ± 8% 38.3% 26.8% 33.1% LPC 18% ± 5% 12.7% 9.0% 17.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 4.5% 0.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Edmonton Strathcona 47% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 8% CPC 18% ± 5% LPC NDP 2025 47.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton Strathcona 98%▼ NDP 2%▲ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Edmonton Strathcona

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 33% ± 8% NDP 47% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton Strathcona 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 52% CPC 37% LPC 7% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 50% CPC 38% LPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 50% CPC 38% LPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 51% CPC 37% LPC 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 48% CPC 37% LPC 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 47% CPC 38% LPC 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 44% CPC 40% LPC 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 46% CPC 37% LPC 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 46% CPC 37% LPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 45% CPC 34% LPC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 21% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 44% CPC 31% LPC 21% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 44% CPC 31% LPC 21% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 21% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 21% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 46% CPC 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 45% CPC 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 44% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 44% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 44% CPC 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 45% CPC 32% LPC 20% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 44% CPC 32% LPC 21% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 43% CPC 33% LPC 21% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 42% CPC 33% LPC 21% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 42% CPC 33% LPC 22% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 22% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 23% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 23% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 23% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 42% CPC 32% LPC 23% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 42% CPC 31% LPC 23% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 43% CPC 31% LPC 23% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 18% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 47% CPC 33% LPC 18% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Edmonton Strathcona

LPC <1% CPC 2% NDP 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader