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Canada

Markham—Stouffville


MP elect: Helena Jaczek (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Markham—Stouffville


Liberal Helena Jaczek*
Conservative Niran Jeyanesan
NDP Serena Cheung
Green Myles O'Brien
PPC Rene DeVries
Centrist Shahzad Ahmed

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Markham—Stouffville 51% ± 6% LPC 45% ± 6% CPC LPC 2025 51.4% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 86%▼ LPC 14%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 51% ± 6% CPC 45% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 36% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 37% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 44% LPC 39% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 42% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 38% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 36% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 51% ± 6% 39.0% 51.5% 51.4% CPC 45% ± 6% 31.1% 34.8% 45.3% NDP 2% ± 1% 6.7% 8.8% 1.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 2.9% 0.6% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.