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Canada

Markham—Stouffville


MP: Helena Jaczek (LPC)

Latest projection: October 5, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 8% 39.0% 51.5% 51.4% CPC 46% ± 7% 31.1% 34.8% 45.3% NDP 3% ± 2% 6.7% 8.8% 1.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 2.9% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Markham—Stouffville


Markham—Stouffville 49% ± 8% LPC 46% ± 7%▲ CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 51.4% 338Canada vote projection | October 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 71%▼ LPC 29%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | October 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 49% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC October 5, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 36% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 37% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 44% LPC 39% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 42% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 38% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 35% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 58% CPC 36% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 36% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 45% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 52% CPC 45% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 49% CPC 45% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-10-05 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP October 5, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader