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Canada

Markham—Stouffville



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
CPC likely
Markham—Stouffville 47% ± 8%▼ CPC 34% ± 7% LPC 12% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 47% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 31.1% 34.8% 47% ± 8% LPC 39.0% 51.5% 34% ± 7% NDP 6.7% 8.8% 12% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 2.0% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 2.9% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.